Yes, I'm getting ahead of myself. Yes, the Patriots need to win in Miami first. If they do, and it won't be easy, New England will finish 14-2-0 with the #1 seed in the AFC and home field for the playoffs. They will have ended three-game road losing streaks in Denver and Miami and finish the regular season undefeated on the road. They will have accomplished all of this despite having to start the season without Tom Brady and having to finish the season without Rob Gronkowski. This could be one of the best Patriots teams of the Belichick era and that's not a statement that can be made lightly. If Brady throws 3 TD passes without an INT this Sunday, he will own the single season record for TD/INT ratio (he currently holds 3 spots on the Top 10 list). If the defense pitches a shutout, they will become the stingiest Patriots defense of the Belichick era for points allowed.
Still a few questions left to be answered, of course.
Does Brady get that TD/INT ratio record?
It could happen but I suspect Brady would rather see LeGarrette Blount get 3 TDs rushing on Sunday than worry about his personal numbers.
Will the defense pitch a shutout?
No. Maybe if the game was in Foxborough but it isn't.
Will pigskin pundits and bobbleheads finally give the Patriots defense some credit if they shut down the Dolphins offense in Miami or will they simply remind us they were playing backup QB Matt Moore?
Let's consider the following: The Dolphins have just scored 34 points in back-to-back road games with Matt Moore under center. Starter Ryan Tannehill had a passer rating of 93.5 with 7.7 yards per attempt and a 4.4% TD rate. Moore (Warning! Small Data Sample Ahead!) has a passer rating of 113.4, 9.7 ypa and an 11.3% TD rate. They've got 1K ballers in RB Jay Ajayi and WR Jarvis Landry. RB Kenyan Drake doesn't play much but when he does he averages 5.8 yards per rush. There are 6 receivers on the roster averaging double-digits per catch, led by Kenny Stills' 18.0 ypc.
Unlike many of New England's opponents (I'm looking at you Los Angeles), Miami has earned Bill Belichick's midweek encomiums. They will be a tough out, but let's say the Patriots defense can limit the big play Dolphins offense on Sunday; 10 points or less while it matters plus a garbage time TD.
The story Monday morning?
New England still hasn't beaten an elite quarterback.
Wait a minute! Didn't the Dolphins play the same weak schedule the Patriots did?
For the most part, yes. Yes they did. The Dolphins played the same out of division opponents as the Patriots (AFC North, NFC West). The big difference being that New England played a 1st place schedule (facing the other 2015 AFC divisional winners) and Miami did not.
As I'm sure you've heard by now, Miami has won 9 of their last 10 games. They started that run with a win at home against the Steelers and Ben Roethlisberger. That was followed by wins over the Bills, Jets, Chargers, Rams and 49ers. After getting their asses kicked in Baltimore by the Ravens, they bounced back with wins over the Cardinals and the Jets and Bills again.
Much has been made of the Patriots not facing elite quarterbacks in their run to 13-2-0 (the Patriots played Pittsburgh while Roethlisberger was out with an injury and beat non-elite backup QB Landry Jones), but even if you consider Philip Rivers or Carson Palmer to be elite, those are just bad football teams the Dolphins have been beating up. Well, "beating up" may be a little too strong…
Miami has a +4 point differential on the season, is that good?
No. It is not good.
Let's take a look at Pythagorean wins expectation, shall we?
[Caveat: I'm using the 15-game point totals and therefore a 15-game projection.]
The Dolphins should be an 8-7-0 team (rounding up the projected win total of 7.6). That seems to make sense given the composite score of 23.27 to 23.00 over Miami's 15 games in 2016. I guess Pythagoras couldn't have taken into account the New York Jets.
Not so fast, Pythagoras. What about New England?
The math tells us the Patriots should be a 12-3-0 team (rounding up the projected 11.75 wins).
Hm.
Ominous.
Perhaps luck does exist?
What do all these facts and numbers mean?
Not much really. Let's not forget the game is played with an oblate spheroid. It takes funny bounces. I don't think Pythagoras thought of that one, either.
I guess that's why they still play the game.
Go Pats!
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