With the Raiders loss to the Chiefs Thursday night, the Patriots now control their playoff destiny.
But didn't they always? Don't we all control our own destiny? I mean, outside of the extinction level event scenarios like the Yellowstone supervolcano blowing the entire state of Wyoming into the atmosphere or an asteroid the size of Texas leaving a Texas-sized hole where Texas used to be.
Otherwise, we're good, am I right?
Anyway, if New England wins out they will have the #1 seed, home field and a first round bye for the playoffs. First up will be the Monday night game against the Baltimore Ravens.
Joe Flacco says the Ravens aren't intimidated by the Patriots. Okay, then why do you have to say that? Terrell Suggs refuses to refer to Tom Brady by name. Because he's not afraid? Or because Tom Brady is actually Voldemort? Has anyone checked Suggs forehead for a lightning bolt scar?
Divisional rivalries just aren't enough for the Patriots.
As hard as the NFL tries to create parity, the Patriots and a few other franchises have figured out how to beat the house. Because the schedule calls for division winners from the previous season to play each other this season, the Patriots have regularly played the Colts, Broncos and Steelers/Ravens in the regular season as well as the playoffs.
So when the Patriots play the Ravens there's a fair amount of familiarity and the equal measure of contempt that goes with it.
I'll admit it; as a Patriots fan, the Ravens definitely make me nervous. Joe Flacco is as streaky as any QB not named Ryan Fitzpatrick but I've never seen him streaky cold against the Patriots. The Ravens front seven will be the biggest test New Dante Scarnecchia's new and improved offensive line will face this season. Nobody has been able to run against Baltimore. Pigskin pundits and bobbleheads are setting the over/under on LeGarrette Blount carries at 5.5. Tom Brady won't have Gronk and Martellus Bennett is hobbled by ankle and shoulder injuries. Brady also won't have 3rd down conversion machine Danny Amendola so New England had to hit the street to sign a slot receiver and found Griff Whalen, whose name sounds like he was a pledge to Omega Theta Pi. Whalen is best remembered by Patriots fans for his starring role in one of the biggest special teams/trick play fails in NFL history. Let's just say I was far more intrigued by reports that D.J. Foster was working out with the wide receiver group.
Will the Patriots even try to run the football?
I don't see Josh McDaniels giving up on the run and I expect to see Blount running behind James Develin more often than the gridiron cognoscenti are predicting. And why not? If the Patriots have success running the ball with Blount, they should win going away. It would be foolish not to try.
Having said that, the Patriots will probably get more rushing yardage out of shotgun formations with James White and Dion Lewis flanking Brady with a run when they're expecting pass approach on 3rd and less than 7.
Can the Patriots Defense win this one?
As good as the Ravens defense is, they may have to.
I know it's hard to feel confident in what we've been seeing from New England's defense based on context (e.g., the Rams, Jets and 49ers) but they do seem to finally be finding their post-Chandler Jones/post-Jamie Collins identity. I don't care who you're playing, holding an NFL team to 25 yards in a half shouldn't be taken lightly. But okay...
Clearly, this is a dick-measuring game. The Ravens sit atop the AFC North and could return to Foxborough in the playoffs. If they do, it would be good if they spend the week before the game talking about how they weren't intimidated by the savage beating they suffered at the hands of the Patriots in Week 14. Flacco and the Ravens offense is all about big plays. The Patriots defense needs to keep everything in front of them Monday night.
Will the Patriots Offense flip the script and win with the deep ball?
This depends on a couple of big if's, of course. IF the Blount can gain yardage and IF the offensive line can give Brady time in the pocket.
Malcom Mitchell, Chris Hogan and Martysaurus Rex can all get downfield. If Brady has time to find them, there are big plays to be had. Weather is going to be a factor but TB12 has always played well in the cold and snow. Mitchell and Hogan may not need to get deep to be X-factors. A sloppy field gives receivers a slight advantage over defenders; the receiver knows where he's going while the defensive back is basically playing on ice skates. Mitchell or Hogan could make their money with yards after the catch on slants and quick outs. And that could set up the deep ball.
Can someone get Cyrus Jones a hypnotist?
The promising rookie has admitted that his ball security issues have been more a matter of head than hands. Okay, so find a hypnotist who can convince him whenever he hears the word "Antwerp" that he's a chicken. A chicken with hands. Hands that are magnets for footballs. Or maybe not a chicken. A gazelle. With hands that are magnets for footballs.
Seriously, a kick return for a score would be so best Monday night.
It's kind of a big deal…
So what happens Monday night?
Let's keep it simple.
The defense needs to continue trending up. They need to make Joe Flacco try to win the game one short pass at a time while picking up an interception and a strip sack fumble recovery along the way.
Special teams needs to win the field position battle. Punter Ryan Allen may be one of the most important players in this game. Oh, and that punt return for a TD from Cyrus Jones would be jimmies on the sundae.
December is Tom Terrific time. He may well be the best cold weather quarterback in NFL history and he needs to play like it Monday night.
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