Wednesday, November 19, 2014

Chameleons

I would like to know what it was Sergio Brown said or did to Rob Gronkowski because I never want to say or do that. You know, just in case Rob Gronkowski is standing right behind me and I didn't notice.

Gronk blocking Sergio Brown into a camera stanchion was such a quintessential football moment. It’s too bad the camera was set up there. I think Gronk might've taken Brown all the way up the tunnel if the camera stanchion hadn't stopped him. If you've ever played the game at any level I think you've seen one player absolutely destroy another in a blocking drill. There’s usually some context to these moments. Maybe the coaches are out of control, barking incomprehensibly, spit flying everywhere, it's hot, it's the second of two-a-days, you’re on your second or third time through the drill (you've lost count) and any semblance of humanity has been lost. You've been reduced to your primeval essence. You want to kill and eat the kid across from you. Sometimes the kid who gets rolled has it coming, sometimes it's just the luck of the draw with the fourth-string running back lining up against the starting right tackle. Either way, it's hilarious.



It's a small data sample; just one game. Just one decisive win on the road against a playoff-quality team. It would be wrong to draw any conclusions.

We're on to Detroit.

Before we go, one indelible image from the 42-20 win over the Colts: Rob Gronkowski lead blocking for Julian Edelman on the reverse. Gronk rolling up the sideline, looking for contact, making contact, Edelman sprinting, quickly closing the gap, slipping up the sideline and past Gronk's block. Sweet, sweet moment. Unless you were a Colts' defensive back.

So, anyway, Detroit. We can be sure Ndamukong Suh and the Lions will have their courage screwed to the sticking point after losing in such dismal fashion to the Cardinals last Sunday. They have something to prove this week. Not to mention keeping pace with the Green Bay Packers for the NFC North.

Big game?

Big game.

New England needs the win to hold onto that #1 seed in the playoffs and maintain their lead in the AFC East. There’s no team that understands better the value of home field for the AFC Championship than the Patriots. A loss this Sunday could nullify everything they've achieved as a result of their six-game winning streak.

Big game?

Yeah. Another big game.

In a reversal of form, I'm feeling pretty good about this one. First of all, it's a home game. Always good. Let's not forget the Lions are a dome team and an unseasonably early cold front has hit the region like a punch in the face. Not a bad thing having one of the best cold-weather quarterbacks in NFL history. Unfortunately, the long-term forecast calls for temps in the high 40s. Perhaps it's enough the Patriots have been playing pretty well of late.

Successful teams have a way of flipping the script. They can win with finesse. They can win with power. You want to go fast like the Colts? They go slow like the Patriots did last Sunday night. Of course, you need coaches who can leverage diverse strategies in developing opponent-specific game plans and a roster filled with players who can implement those strategies on the field of play. 

Despite the impressive front four of the Lions and their #1 ranking against the run, I don't expect the Patriots to abandon the rushing game entirely. In fact, I should think this will be a point of pride for the offensive line. Not that I'm expecting Jonas Gray to get 37 touches and 201 yards again this Sunday but given the importance of play action to Brady and the passing game I'd be surprised if we didn't see a few touches for Gray between the tackles. Belichick loves old timey football and I'm expecting some of those quick traps up the middle to James Develin from the fullback spot out of the I-formation (the very first play we learned as 7th graders). It might be a good time for some draw plays and screen passes with Vereen. And play action out of formations with six offensive linemen. Let;s just say I'm anxiously awaiting the injury report on Cameron Fleming. 

I also expect Brady to have a big game. Yes, Tom was Terrific in the second half against the Colts but I don't think he's forgotten the Cutleresque first half that culminated in Belichick having Tom take a knee with 0:55 on the clock and all three timeouts left. That was a clear and public message from coach to player and from coach to team. Nobody gets a pass, not even future first ballot HOFer Tom Brady. Brady has always followed a poor performance with a good one. If the Patriots score 4+ TDs against the Lions, they will probably come from the passing game. 

In another flashback to 2004, I see this as a game the defense wins. It's tempting to think of where this defense would be with Mayo and Chandler Jones healthy because they look pretty damned good without them. Dominique Easley seemed to spend the entire game in the Colts' backfield Sunday night (starting to look like that first round pick was worth it). Hightower and Collins have me convinced a third linebacker is superfluous. Wilfork, Ninko, Revis, McCourty, Browner and a Pu Pu platter of nickel and dime DBs (Arrington, Butler, Dennard, Ryan) have all been doing their job. 

It will be interesting to see how the Patriots match up with Lions receiving corps, especially Megatron. Revis? Or maybe Browner, with Revis taking away Golden Tate? New England's defense put a lot of pressure on Andrew Luck but only came up with 1 sack. Matthew Stafford has been sacked 31 times in 10 games. If we're setting the line at 3.5 sacks for the Patriots this Sunday, I'm betting the over.

It's all good on pixels, of course; regardless of how many Madden simulations the Patriots win, they'll still need to play the game this Sunday. Taking any opponent lightly will leave you shaking your head and wondering what just happened but the Patriots have been playing with a chip on their shoulder for the last seven weeks and I don't think they feel like they've made their point, yet.



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