Players Play

Anything can happen. I admit, I didn’t feel that way a month ago. A month ago this looked like a blowout loss at home. No chance. No hope. After the loss to the Chiefs, it wasn’t just the 2014 season that was over, Brady was over, Belichick was over and the New England Patriots could only hope that Jimmy Garoppolo would be ready for opening day 2015. Today? There’s a chance. It won’t be easy, not without Jerod Mayo and Chandler Jones, but there’s a chance.

Four weeks ago we’d all forgotten something we should never have forgotten.

Never count out Tom Brady.

Or Bill Belichick.

 

Bill Belichick the Head Coach is a lock for Canton but Bill Belichick the General Manager takes a regular beating from local and national pigskin pundits and bobbleheads and the haters posting in the comments section, of course. Though he’s tried repeatedly, he can’t draft a wide receiver to save his soul (though he did trade for Wes Welker and Randy Moss). He picks a DT with no factory parts in his knees with his 1^st round pick then “wastes” his 2^nd round pick on a QB of the Future when there were positions of need for 2014 that could’ve been filled.

Bill Belichick the General Manager is also the guy who recognized the AFL Championship would run through Denver again in 2014 and went out and signed Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner to see if he could do something about that. The bookend cornerbacks were brought to New England to win this game and the seemingly inevitable rematch in the playoffs. Revis and Browner are the first and most important key to a Patriots victory this Sunday. If they can win their match ups with Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, New England has a very good chance of winning.

Admittedly, that won’t be enough. New England will need to play well in all three phases of the game. They need their stars – Brady, Gronkowski, Vereen, Edelman, Revis, Browner, Ninkovich, McCourty, Hightower, Collins – to win their one-on-one battles on Sunday. They need to…

Score 30+ Points

Denver’s defense is much improved in 2014. They have the #1 rush defense in the NFL but I wonder if that’s due at least in part to the fact opponents are playing from behind and forced to dispense with run. As for defending the pass, they rank #17 in yards but #6 in sacks. Again, I would think the yardage has something to do with opponents going to the pass early and often in a vain attempt to keep pace with the #1 scoring offense in the NFL (32.0 ppg).

Despite the Broncos success against the run, I think the Pats will need to take their shots on the ground with Jonas Gray and Shane Vereen. I like the idea of running at pass rushing specialists like Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware. Wear them down. Slow them down. Tire them out. I also like keeping the clock running with Peyton Manning on the sidelines. If the Patriots can establish a running game from their 2TE formations, it will open up play action to Rob Gronkowski in the deep middle of the field. I would expect a fair amount of the inside draw play that New England likes to run out of the shotgun as well.

Brady needs to play well, of course. I’m looking for a bounce-back game from Julian Edelman but I think the Pats will need to get vertical in the passing game against the Broncos so Brian Tyms may be a player to watch this Sunday. The Patriots want to score early and often (who doesn’t) and then grind clock.

Dust Off That Super Bowl XXV Game Plan on Defense

Every time the Broncos run the ball this Sunday is a small victory for the Patriots. It takes the ball out of Peyton Manning’s hands for one thing and it keeps the clock running, limiting the number of plays overall.

Not to forget the woeful Jets nearly beat the Patriots in Foxborough by pounding the rock. Nor should I ignore the fact New England has been terrible against the run in 2014, ranked #25 of 32. (So, it could be worse.) So, some risk involved here but much like last year, when the Patriots essentially invited Manning to hand the ball to Knowshon Moreno (who rushed for over 200 yards), I would expect to see New England in sub packages with as many as eight defensive backs on the field. If Ronnie Hillman runs for 200+ yards this Sunday, I like the Patriots chances to win. Somewhere, Thurman Thomas is nodding.

Have an Unlikely Hero Rise Up to Folk Hero Status

Football is the ultimate team sport and Bill Belichick’s devotion to this ideal is encapsulated in his “do your job” mantra. Still, players need to make plays and a big day from a role player is often the key to victory. Some wishful thinking…

Dominique Easley – A breakout game from the 1^st round pick couldn’t come at a better time, given the opponent and the absence of Chandler Jones. A two sacks, two tackles for loss, forced fumble/recovery kind of game would be most helpful. Not that I ask for much. But seriously, one well-timed sack and no mistakes/missed tackles would be plenty.

Brian Tyms/Tim Wright – As noted above, Tyms could be an important part of Sunday’s game plan. In limited action he’s flashed big play ability with the speed to get deep and the hands and athletic ability to go up and make the catch. With the Broncos defense giving help over the top on Gronkowski and with Edelman and LaFell handling the short to intermediate zones, Tyms could find himself in single coverage all day long and into the night. After all, if you’re Denver’s Jack Del Rio, you aren’t building your defensive game plan around stopping Brian Tyms. Or Tim Wright. As with Tyms, Wright will be in a position to draw favorable match ups after the Broncos have taken care of Gronk, Edelman and LaFell. Wright has 17 catches on 18 targets with 3 TD playing in sub packages and red zone opportunities. It wouldn’t surprise me if Wright catches 2+ TD this Sunday. Fantasy owners who have Gronk are going to hate Wright in this one.

Danny Amendola – Perhaps the unlikeliest of heroes, he should probably legally change his middle name to “Star-Crossed” at this point. I don’t know if there’s anything Amendola could do to change the minds of the good citizens of Patriots Nation at this point but a big play on special teams – kick-off return for a TD? – or a “Wow, was that Danny Amendola?” catch could be the moment that turns this game in New England’s favor.

Zach Moore – So, he’s a rookie from a DIII school. He’s got the tools. It’s football. Is this where I mention Deacon Jones went to a DIII school? It is? Okay. I’ll say a strip sack and a pass knocked down from the rangy rookie. I’m talking myself into this. Who’s with me?

Go Pats!