Sunday, September 21, 2014

Back to the Show

It never ceases to amaze me how poorly we take prosperity here in Patriots Nation. Our football team responded to a lackluster performance to open the season with a resounding victory in week 2 and all we can do is kvetch about the passing game’s lack of its usual sophistication. Maybe it’s just me but the 30-7 win over the Vikings last Sunday reminded me a lot of those 2003-04 Patriots. Dominating defense, a big play on special teams, a solid running game and an efficient Tom Brady running the show. Can New England play better?

Yes.

I think that’s the good news. And I’m taking the W.

 
Chandler Jones, Superstar
So, we’ve been waiting for this guy since he was drafted. And it looks like he’s here.

As noted above in the comps to the championship years of 2003-04, scoring touchdowns on special teams was a big part of the Patriots’ success. That block/recovery/score by Jones was a game-breaking play. It was also a moment where Jones served notice. New England is all about team and I’m sure we can expect Jones to say all the right things about his teammates and coaches but Chandler Jones is a great football player. Last Sunday he put on an epic performance, with 8 tackles, 2 sacks, 3 tackles for loss and 3 quarterback hits to go with that incredible, amazing block of the field goal attempt. Wow. Just wow. He was Lawrence Taylor without the hookers and blow.

You can’t fool me, Devin McCourty
McCourty says it’s too early to tell if the Patriots defense is for real. Good answer. (Bill would be proud.) I just don’t think he believes it. (I don’t think Belichick does, either.) Revis has his first interception. Dominique Easley has his first interception, too. Chandler Jones is the defensive player of the week. Dont’a Hightower turns out to be the extra pass rusher they needed. The Pats totaled 6 sacks, 8 tackles for loss, 7 passes defended, 8 quarterback hits and 4 interceptions, highlighted by McCourty’s running grab in centerfield, which he returned 60 yards to set up a 1-yard TD drive.

Without Jamie Collins last week, with Brandon Browner yet to see the field, this New England defense looked like the Top 5 Defense we expected in their deconstruction of the Minnesota Vikings.

Yes, okay, the Vikings didn’t have Adrian Peterson on the field. That desultory second half against the Dolphins? We’re so over that. It is early, granted, and we’ll have to wait for the signature win (that won’t be today against the Raiders) but this defense is for real and that will be a good thing come the Week 9-14 stretch when New England faces Denver, Indianapolis, Detroit, Green Bay and San Diego.

A lot of in’s and out’s
There have been plenty of theories explaining the Patriots’ failure to launch on offense in 2014. The offensive line can’t protect Brady. Gronkowski is still rusty. Brady doesn’t trust anyone but Gronk and Julian Edelman. Danny Amendola, Brandon LaFell, Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins aren’t getting open. Josh McDaniels got stupid. All of the above.

As noted in the lede, Brady’s 14/21/145/1 slash line from last Sunday would not have been out of place back in the championship days but it’s hardly the 27/36/325/3 line we’ve come to unreasonably expect of Tom Terrific in 2014. Brady unsurprisingly has made it clear he expects more of himself and the offense. Assuming the defense continues to play well and Stevan Ridley holds onto the football, I think 21/28/265/2 should be plenty from TB12.

Taking a look at the stats, it’s not that I’m overly concerned with Brady locking in on Jules and Gronk, who’ve totaled 42.85714285714286% of the targets so far; 15 and 17 attempts, respectively. Edelman and Gronkowski are the two best receivers on the team, after all. (Calvin Johnson all by himself gets 30% of the targets in Detroit.) Kenbrell Thompkins and Shane Vereen have 9 targets each. That’s 23.37662337662338% for Thompkins and Vereen. What do we make of that? It isn’t so much the targets and percentages in what is clearly a small data sample. It was always going to be a challenge getting reps with so many options available. When Brady says he expects more he means more. It’s about productivity.

Brady is averaging just 5.17 yards per attempt. That is not good. In fact, it’s dead last in the NFL.

Of course, it that’s an improvement over the 4.44 yards per attempt for Brady in the Dolphins game.

So, yeah, two games don’t tell us very much and if the Patriots win today, regardless of the numbers, the reaction of local pigskin pundits and bobbleheads will likely be, “Well, it was the Raiders and a rookie QB so the Pats should’ve won.”

I’ll take the W.



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