Questionable

Gronk flew with the team to NYC.

He’s playing.

 

Does this hurt?

Every team deals with injuries so I generally try to avoid windging about it but by at least one measure, no team has been as significantly impacted by injuries as have the Patriots. New England now has $20.6m of their 2013 salary cap on Injured Reserve, more than any other team by a $4m margin. Obviously, an injury to a QB could change that pretty quickly and cap numbers are complicated but if you (like me) were starting to freak out about the injuries and the impact to the Patriots’ chances of continuing their early season success, well, here’s our sanity check. Yes. It is that bad.

And the salary cap perspective doesn’t include the week to week losses of players like Tommy Kelly, Aqib Talib and Danny Amendola or the month to month losses of Matthew Slater and Shane Vereen.

With Wilfork and Mayo done for the season and Talib out this week, the Patriots will play the Jets without their best player at each level of the defense.

Ouch.

Tommy Baby

If “as long as they have Tom Brady” was a drinking game, I’d be drunk all the time. Pigskin pundits and bobbleheads were tripping over each other as they scrambled and clawed their way onto the Tom Brady bandwagon after the last second TD pass to Kenbrell Thompkins that beat the New Orleans Saints. And that was before the “Tom Brady, Leader of Men” mic’d up video hit the blogosphere.

One thing that stood out from that “mic’d up” video from that game was the beating Brady took. It makes the mewling and puking about the “preferential treatment” Brady receives something of a joke. (Are the rules set up to protect QB’s and thwart the baser instincts of defensive players? Yes. Hit any QB in the head – even those not named Brady – and there will be flags thrown.) Let’s remember that NFL officials are human beings, too, and while everyone loves Peyton Manning, outside of New England, everyone hates Tom Brady. Let’s face it; he is exceedingly hateable. The dimpled-chin, blue-eyed good looks, the So-Cal cool persona, the fact your girlfriend/wife thinks he's dreamy, the Super Bowl rings, the super model wife – not to mention all the times his team took out the so much more loveable Peyton Manning. Does it make any sense that NFL officials are going out of their way to take care of that guy?

I did find it interesting to come across this piece regarding Brady’s 2013 MVP bona fides. As long time reader(s) of this blog know, I’m on record as having said this could well be Brady’s signature season as an NFL QB. Wins and losses may or may not be a “quarterback stat” but if the Patriots continue to win and Brady’s numbers regress to the mean with Gronk’s return and Vereen’s return and Amendola’s return plus the game to game improvement of Thompkins and Aaron Dobson, expect to see more pigskin pundits and bobbleheads prostrate themselves at the feet of Tom Terrific.

The Gronkowski Identity

Everyone seems to have an opinion on how Gronkowski’s return will impact the Patriots’ offense. Given the reports on Gronk’s practice participation, I tend to think he’ll have a significant and immediate impact.

Not that I won’t be holding my breath till he gets up from that first big hit.

More than a few pigskin pundits and bobbleheads have noted that Gronk won’t be able to stop Thompkins and Dobson from dropping passes but I wonder if his presence might take some pressure off the rookies. Were the kids feeling the pressure to be perfect? Will Gronk lift that burden from their shoulders? How it all translates to on the field production remains to be seen, of course, but it certainly won’t hurt to have safeties checking Gronk up the seam instead of doubling Thompkins, Dobson and Edelman on the outside.

Blocking and Tackling

After all the talk of Gronk and Brady, this game most likely comes down to which team runs the football better.

The Patriots would like to get Stevan Ridley going to set up play action and slow the Jets very scary front seven. If Ridley rushes for 80+ and Brady stays mostly clean in the pocket (3 sacks?), the Patriots will win.

Even with Talib out, I have to think the Jets will test Chris Jones and Joe Vellano in the middle of the D-Line. Brandon Spikes will need to have a big game on 1^st and 2^nd down. If the Patriots can force 3^rd and long situations and keep Geno Smith in the pocket they will win.

Or maybe Brady comes out throwing it all over the yard and hangs 300+ with 4 TD passes on the Jets defense, three to Gronkowski.

As long as they have Brady…