Look to the East

With a couple of high profile free agents taking their talents to South Beach, the inevitable question follows. Will Miami challenge New England for the AFC East in 2013?

With free agency still in full swing and the draft yet to come it’s really too early to say but I’ll say anyway.

No.

Is it possible the Dolphins contend for a playoff spot? Yeah, maybe. The Bills and the Jets are remodeling the kitchen and the bathroom and seem unlikely to offer much in the way of competition for the division or a wild card spot for the next three years (minimum).

 

Miami has been a major player in free agency with speedy WR Mike Wallace the signature signing. Management have now given QB Ryan Tannehill a trio of receivers. In addition to Wallace, they re-signed Brian Hartline and signed free agent TE Dustin Keller away from the Jets.

The Dolphins may have slightly overpaid Hartline and Keller isn’t remarkably better than the guy he replaces (Anthony Fasano) but both of those players are solid. It’s Wallace that will (or won’t) be the difference maker. Based on his career averages, Wallace should be worth 8 touchdowns. I know the math isn’t this simple but let’s add 56 points to Miami’s 2012 total of 288 points, taking them to 344.

New England’s point total in 2012 was 557.

Perhaps the Patriots will score 214 fewer points in 2013. Perhaps Wallace plus a year of starting experience for Tannehill will have a larger effect on scoring than the simple math would indicate. Wallace will open space for Hartline and Keller. It’s why you get a guy that can take the top off the defense. If the Dolphins offense could generate 27 points a game it would bring their total to 432 points.

Okay, that’s assuming a best case scenario which almost never happens.

There are reasons teams like the Steelers and the Ravens let guys like Mike Wallace and Dannell Ellerbe walk. In a previous post, I noted just how much $1m in cap space is worth in terms of players and production. Wallace’s contract doesn’t really start to hurt until 2014 (when it jumps from $3.2m to $17.2m) but overspending on one position has an impact on the depth chart. If the Dolphins lose Jake Long to the Rams will Ryan Tannehill have enough time to throw the ball deep to Wallace? If they sign Jake Long and he gets hurt who will they have to back him up?

Okay, that’s mostly worst case scenario and that almost never happens, either.

Will the Dolphins be better in 2013? Yes, absolutely but it won’t be enough to overtake the Patriots.

The Patriots have lost once promising/lately disappointing safety Patrick Chung and replaced him with Adrian Wilson, a durable and much decorated veteran who will bring a physical presence to the defense’s back four. They re-signed Kyle Arrington (not as bad as everyone seems to think) and The Talented Mr. Aqib Talib to ensure Devin McCourty will remain at safety (where he’s a borderline pro-bowler). They lost backup G/C Donald Thomas who got starter money from the Colts. Thanks for the memories. They lost Danny Woodhead to the Chargers in part because they project Shane Vereen to the 3^rd Down role and had already added Leon Washington to bolster that position and more importantly give them a legitimate threat on kick returns. Oh, and I don’t know if you heard but they lost Wes Welker, replacing him with Danny Amendola.

The Patriots still have to be hoping to re-sign Sebastian Vollmer though I think they would like to add another playmaker to the defense first and then see how much money they have left. They’re rumored to be in play for a pass rush specialist. John Abraham, Dwight Freeney or – something of a long shot – Elvis Dumervil would all be welcomed to Foxborough with open arms. There’s more work to be done at wide receiver, too. Maybe Donald Jones is waiting for his close up but I’m happier thinking of him as a 3^rd or 4^th, not a 2^nd option at WR. Count me as one of those who wouldn’t mind replacing Brandon Lloyd with Steelers’ RFA Emmanuel Sanders at WR (younger, faster and a better bet than the 3^rd round pick they’d be giving up) but bringing Lloyd back at a reduced salary wouldn’t be all that bad, either. Lloyd did catch 74 passes for 911 yards and 4 TDs and played in all 16 games last year. In his second year with Brady, shouldn’t it be reasonable to expect at least marginal improvements in those numbers? If he does re-sign, I’ll be telling myself the answer to that question is a definitive yes.

Lost in the gnashing of teeth over Wes Welker’s departure has been the opportunity to enjoy the deconstruction of the Bills and Jets. Okay, really just the Jets. I’m starting to feel sorry for Bills’ fans. Your momentary joy in the news that Ryan Fitzpatrick had been released was tempered by the knowledge that if the season started today, your starting quarterback would be Tavaris Jackson. Anyway, how do you think those Kevin Kolb stories made Jets’ fans feel? I guess I had mixed emotions myself. I was on the one hand amused and on the other hand delighted. I can only hope the Jets actually do sign Kolb and a quarterback controversy of mediocre proportions ensues.

 

If Tom Brady was a pop star...