Penultimate Pigskins

Nothing is really a surprise in the conference championship games. Would I call any outcome this Sunday an upset? I guess I’d go with statistically improbable if I was splitting semantic hairs. And apparently I am.

 

Pigskin Analytics

The Falcons have got one very important edge and that’s the Disrespect Card. A lot of the locals seem to believe it was the Patriots who invented Disrespect Card but I’m pretty sure it was the Zoroastrians. Those who remain convinced it was the Patriots who invented the Disrespect Card will note that Falcons GM Thomas Dimitroff got his start with the Patriots. The Falcons are home which is an actual big advantage. (Yes, they’ve lost home games in the playoffs but it’s a small data sample; the regular season 7-1-0 record is far more relevant.) The 49ers have to make the cross-country flight but they get a 3:00pm start which will be much easier on their internal clocks so I’m going to call that a wash. I don’t have a lot of confidence in John Abraham’s injured ankle. Even with Abraham healthy the Atlanta defense didn’t have a lot of success stopping Cam Newton and Colin Kaepernick is like Cam Newton 5.0. Definitely a negative trend indicator for the Falcons. If, however, Matty Ice and the passing game gets going for Atlanta this could be a shootout with a high scoring game that comes down to the last possession and a field goal attempt. If it does, the Falcons have the better situation at kicker, with 11-year veteran Matt Bryant.

Falcons 38, 49ers 35

The Ravens have God. The Patriots have Tom Brady.

Patriots 45, Ravens 21

This song is still stuck in my head and I don't even care...