Game Day Rationalizations

I’ve spent the whole week listening to pigskin pundits and bobbleheads comparing Joe Flacco’s mighty right arm to Thor’s Hammer. The Ravens aren’t afraid to play in Foxborough. Torrey Smith is so fast he occasionally disappears from radar. Ray Lewis is on a mission from God. So, yeah, I’m nervous.

How the hell are the Patriots 9 point favorites in this game?

 

What do the Patriots have going for them today?

They’ve got the #1 Offense in the NFL. I know, defense wins championships but having the top scoring offense, the best 3^rd down offense, the best red zone offense, the #4 passing offense matched with the #7 rushing offense can’t hurt.

They’ve got the winningest QB in NFL playoff history. Tom Brady is 17-6, a 74% winning percentage.

As noted above, the Patriots have a running game. They will miss Gronkowski here but less so than in the passing game as Michael Hoomanawanui has done good work as a lead blocker. Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen and Danny Woodhead have helped to balance the New England offense and made play action an effective piece of the Patriots’ playbook. It’s worth noting that Ridley outrushed Baltimore’s Ray Rice (1,263 to 1,143). Game time conditions – cold and more importantly wind – may make it difficult to pass the ball downfield. The team that can run the ball this evening will have a decided advantage.

They’re playing at home. Okay, the Ravens say they don’t care but if the crowd does their part and helps draw a false start or a missed communication on an audible and puts the Baltimore offense in a 3^rd and long once or twice, it could make a difference.

The Patriots special teams were embarrassed by the Texans last week and will be out to prove a point today. Special teams are often momentum changers in big games like this. The Patriots sealed the first AFC Championship of the Belichick-Brady era with a blocked field goal and a punt return for touchdowns.

The defense had gotten better since the Aqib Talib trade and the promotion of rookie DB Alfonzo Dennard to the starting lineup. Talib and Dennard at the corners allowed the Patriots to move Kyle Arrington back to the slot and Devin McCourty to safety where he has played at a Pro Bowl level. I’d feel better if I thought rookie DE Chandler Jones and DE Rob Ninkovich were 100% but the New England front seven, with its all-SEC linebacking crew of Jerod Mayo, Brandon Spikes and Dont’a Hightower is stout and will make plays. The Patriots finished second in takeaways (41), first in fumbles recovered (21) and first in turnover differential (25) in the regular season.

Finally, there’s that 9-point line that Vegas has set. The people who run sports books make their living by setting the point spread on games like this. There’s a reason the spread is 9 points. Never doubt money. It’s why they call it money.

Having said that, there’s still a game to be played. Anyone can have a bad game. Nobody wins them all. The Patriots have the better team, the better quarterback and the better coach but none of that will matter unless they prove it one more time on the field.

Go Pats!