Pigskin Crapshoot

One week to go before the mockery ends and the NFL Draft begins.

In other words, the mockery continues…

I like this most recent mock draft because it aligns with a few personal beliefs and observations.

One, the draft is a crapshoot. The chances your team hits on all of their draft choices is something like 1 in 539,163,905,280. 

Okay, I made that up, but I still think I'm in the ballpark. 

But let's say - keeping the math simple - that your team is going to hit on 50% of their picks. Do you want to hit on 4 of 8 selections, or 10 of 20 selections? 

So, when it comes to the draft, I believe more is more. 

Secondly, the Patriots are not just a QB1 away from the Super Bowl. They got 99 problems (and yes, in this case, the QB1 is one).

So, I wanted to keep myself in position to select the elite talents at the top of the draft for New England's most pressing needs (QB1, WR1, OT) but also give myself as many opportunities as possible in rounds 3-7. After all, according to the experts, it's a deep draft….

Let's go!

I was able to turn 8 picks into 21, rolling the dice that a Top 5 QB would be available after giving up #3. I actually traded down twice in the first round, which helped to stockpile those additional picks. After that, a couple of smaller step down trades and one where I broke my own "don't trade down more that 10 picks" rule in the trade with the Rams, as the return was just too good for me to pass on.

And how did it go?

Of the first six picks, I'm sure the Michael Penix, Jr. pick at #34 is the only controversial selection. My rationale? I believe Penix is the best QB in the 2024 draft, but even if he isn't (or the injury history catches up with him), I'm stockpiling talent to support the QB1 selected in the 2025 draft. 

Here's where the additional picks provide the opportunity to look for upgrades across all three phases of the game. Another OT (why not) and Jackson, Eighenberg, Pritchett, and Hunt should all be able to help on special teams immediately (the Patriots sucked almost as hard on special teams in 2023 as they did on offense) and as rotational pieces on defense. 

More special teams/rotational pieces for the defense. 

Flournoy continues to be my "Deebo Samuel comp" binky. 

My last six picks were, for all intents and purposes, crowd-sourced or algorithm-driven. 

There's been plenty of chatter amongst the local pigskin pundits and bobbleheads about Reiman, Means, and Glover. 

The simulator recommended Johnson, Tracy, and Keegan, and after checking out their profiles, I had to agree.

Go Pats!