Pigskin Futures

 I may be addicted to the PFF Mock Draft Simulator.

Is that a bad thing?

As stipulated in previous posts, the NFL Draft is a crapshoot. No matter what anybody says, nobody knows what's going to happen. Too many variables. So, your results may vary, as the lawyers say. 

Anyway, I've decided to approach a Patriots draft with some guiding principles…

#1 - The Draft is a volume business; the more picks you have, the better your odds of hitting on a future pro bowler.

#2 - Current cap space for New England - as in, I'm not sure they can afford a first rounder - also has me wanting to trade down and out of the first round.

#3 - I'm pretty much a draft dilettante so I'll rely on PFF's rankings when I don't have any other reason for a pick (like, "I know I've heard that guy's name mentioned by Pats' beat writers").

#4 - The Patriots have a Maverick-level need for speed.

#5 - I'll focus on positions of need (CB, ED, LB, WR) early on and feast on linemen in the later rounds (I'm not clear on how IOL isn't on the list of needs for New England). 

That's the plan; let's see how it plays out!

We're on the clock at 21 with three trade partners; Bills (25), Steelers (52), Broncos (64). I don't see Belichick making a trade with the Bills in real life but I also don't want to trade as far down as #52. 

Intriguing options available include LB Nakobe Dean (who could be the counter to Josh Allen the Pats defense needs), WR Chris Olave and Skyy Moore, as well as G Zion Johnson. 

I decide rules are made to be broken and guidelines aren't really rules.

With pick #21, the Patriots take LB Nakobe Dean (Georgia).

At #54, there are even more reasons not to trade down. ED Josh Paschal and Kingsley Enagbare, LB Brian Asamoah and Troy Andersen (a favorite among local pigskin pundits and bobbleheads), and CB Roger McCreary. The only trade opportunity is hardly an opportunity at all (LAR 104). I like Paschal and McCreary, who both played in the SEC. 

At pick #54, the Patriots take ED Josh Paschal (Kentucky).

On the clock with pick #85 and the Rams are still flogging pick #104. 

With pick #85, the Patriots take CB Marcus Jones (Houston), described by PFF as "the best kick/punt returner in the draft." Yes, please! The Patriots definitely need to improve on special teams, too.

As you may have noticed, my draft is not going to plan. 

I'll continue to look for a CB/S but the best options at #127 are in the trenches.

With pick #127, the Patriots take OG Marquis Hayes (Oklahoma).

With pick #158, the Patriots take RB Zonovan Knight (North Carolina). I'm going to reach for the next James White. He caught 41 of 47 targets over his last two years in college while averaging ~5.5 yards per carry. 

Sitting at #170, I could pick up another OG (Joshua Ezeudu) or another LB (Micah McFadden). I don't want to reach for either CB DaRon Bland or Derion Kendrick. I'm hoping one or both are available at #200.

With pick #170, the Patriots select OG Joshua Ezeudu (North Carolina).

I arrive at pick #200 and Derion Kendrick is off the board. I could take ED Christopher Allen here, I suppose. We're rolling the dice either way at this point.

With pick #200, the Patriots select CB DaRon Bland (Fresno State).

Allen is still available at #210. Definitely tough leaving P Matt Araiza on the board but always worth taking a flier on one of Nick Saban's guys.

With pick #210, the Patriots select ED Christopher Allen (Alabama).

So, how'd I do? Let's see (keep in mind, PFF is essentially grading itself):

Not too shabby (in the abstract, at least). The first four picks could all be Day 1 starters (with Marcus Jones in the PR/KR role). But this mock definitely did not go to plan, so, I had to go back for one more swing, hoping to find an opportunity to trade down and out of the first round.

And here it is:

So, yeah, it was tough trading all the way down to #46 but I was still able to match needs with potential in those first four picks. In the next five, I did reach a bit for the OGs. I couldn't squeeze much juice out of the 4th and 5th trades but still found value in yet another OG (yes, I'm worried about the O-Line). I'm a bit surprised by the C grade on RB Brian Robinson, Jr., given his production - both running and catching the ball out of the backfield - for the Crimson Tide. (Running backs! Am I right?) I'll gladly take the hit reaching for CB DaRon Bland and was happy to get Derion Kendrick, as well. One of those guys will stick.

This second mock went much closer to plan. I wound up making five trades, gaining 2023 picks in the bargain, while making 19 selections.

Go Pats!