Feeling The Draft

I spent an indefensible amount of time today using the PFF Mock Draft 2022 Simulator. Then again, what wannabe NFL GM hasn't?

None of us knows how the draft will actually play out, of course; moreso, if possible, this year. There doesn't appear to be a consensus #1 pick. Only the neediest of the needy will draft a first round QB. If there's any consensus - and this comes with some recency bias - it's all about getting a WR that doesn't cost you $20MM/year.

And it's even harder to guess what Bill Belichick - the Dark Prince of Unpredictability - is going to do.

But yeah, I'm going to guess…

Top 7 Patriots Predictions for the 2022 Draft

#1 - The Patriots Will Not Trade Up for a Top 15 Pick: Why? For whom? My only caveat here would be if DT Jordan Davis falls to #18; I could see the Patriots and Eagles making a trade in that scenario. Of course, the Eagles would be fools to give up a player like Davis, if he slides that far, so, yeah. That isn't happening. Moving on…

#2 - The Patriots Will Trade Down and Out of the First Round: Semi-related to #1, there doesn't seem to be any prospect available at #21 in the mocks I've run through the simulator that fits the proverbial "Can't Miss" classification. And the Patriots 'cap situation is… challenging. (Yes, that can change but for now, well, it is what it is.) More bargains to be had on Day 2 and 3. Sure, you've probably fallen in love with Daxton Hill or Nakobe Dean, or you believe a stud WR1 or shutdown CB1 is somehow going to fall into Bill Belichik's lap at #21. No. That's really not how any of this works. Any prospect linked to the Patriots will be drafted by the Jets. If not the Jets then the Dolphins. I mean, we've all seen this movie before, haven't we?

#3 - I Believe the Patriots Have a Need, a Need for Speed: A common theme for the Patriots has been the need to get faster, pretty much across the board, but specifically at linebacker. If the Patriots do stick and pick at #21 it will be because an Illudium Q-36 Explosive Josh Allen Modulator is available (e.g., Nakobe Dean). Josh Allen is a problem the Patriots need to solve and I don't think they can solve for X with the players currently on the roster.

#4 - With All That WR Talent You Just Know Belichick Won't Draft a WR: Unless John Metchie III falls to the third round, we're all going to have to wait till after the draft for Belichick to give Mac Jones a former teammate to throw to. And that will be UDFA WR Slade Bolden. Even I get how disappointing this will be and I'm clearly more optimistic than I should be in terms of the Patriots current WR room. I mean, Nelson Agholor has - much like myself in 3rd grade - failed to live up to expectations. And the over/under on DeVante Parker's games played in 2022 is 9.5 (I made that up, don't bother checking). The worst case scenario is certainly a cautionary tale but do you seriously want to tell me you think Chris Olave makes the Patriots a lock for the playoffs? Oh. You do. Well, you're definitely going to hate this draft.

#5 - Bill Belichick Will Draft a Punter: I have used my last pick in most of my mocks on P Matt Araiza because it just feels like something Belichick would do. By the way, no matter how late in the draft you take a punter, PFF's Mock Draft Simulator will give you a grade of C-. Maybe they're right. And cutting Jake Bailey doesn't provide much in cap space. Still, nobody understands the fundamentals of the game better than Belichick. It's still a game of field position. So, there's that. Okay. So, I'm not feeling that great about this prediction but sometimes you're playing poker and sometimes you're just gambling and right now I'm feeling like I just got snap called after going all in with pocket 10s.

# 6 - Bill Belichick Will Draft a Player Mel Kiper, Jr. and Todd McShay Have Never Heard Of: Because that's just Bill being Bill. Okay, I keep saying "Bill" when I know the Patriots have Matt Groh and his team preparing for the draft but if you've ever worked for a detail-oriented, Type A control freak who drinks the blood of virgins by moonlight for strength like Belichick (and we all have worked for that guy because that's what it takes to be a boss and yes I'm kidding about the blood of virgins but… am I?), you know he's signing off on their big board and on the selections themselves. Like a boss.

#7 - None of Any of That Will Actually Happen: Well, except for #2. Belichick's definitely trading down and out of the first round. And yes, that's the best reverse jinx I've got.