How It Ends

We’ve seen this movie before. We know how it ends. Everyone dies and nobody’s happy. Wait-What? Are we in the right theater?

 

We’ve spent the past week in New England talking about trading Tom Brady. Various camps have formed. There are those who believe this is all crazy talk; the Patriots would never trade Brady. There are those who believe Brady will be playing for another team in 2015. Others think it’s more likely Brady is traded after the 2015 season. A few think Brady will retire rather than accept a trade.

Those who believe Brady will play out his contract in New England are certainly influenced by their own desires to see Brady retire a Patriot. (Even those who think Brady will be traded annotate their opinions with a “not that I want this to happen” qualifier.) It isn’t that they disregard the historical record of the Belichick era and the trades of Patriot heroes from Richard Seymour right up to Logan Mankins. They just believe Brady is special.

Which ignores the fact you could’ve said the same thing about Drew Bledsoe once upon a time.

Before there was Brady to Gronkowski there was Bledsoe to Coates.

Bledsoe had just signed the big contract. He was the face of the franchise. He was a damned good QB and nobody knew at the time that Brady wouldn’t just be damned good; he’d be historically good.

And Belichick traded Bledsoe.

In the division.

To Buffalo.

Imagine Brady traded to the Bills.

Or the Jets.

I think I just strained the meniscus of that digression.

Would Robert Kraft overrule Belichick on a Brady trade? That’s the last desperate argument of the “never be traded” crowd. I don’t know. Would Belichick walk if that happened? He’d probably have sixteen job offers the next day. Maybe it’s just the word never. I can’t help but doubt never. Never is a hard constraint. Never? It may be unlikely. But we’re talking Tom Brady here. A Herschel Walker-sized haul of draft picks might seem incredible but – as with most things in life – it only takes one. There’s a GM out there somewhere with a hole at quarterback, sipping a cocktail before dinner, scratching out trade packages on the back of a napkin.

A willing trade partner is just one pre-requisite, though. The scenario where Brady would be traded would require something of a perfect storm, a collusion of events.

Jimmy Garoppolo is Ready

Is Garoppolo impressing Belichick and Josh McDaniels behind the scenes, in practice, in meetings, much as Brady did fifteen years ago? Belichick obviously drafted Jimmy G. as Life “After Brady” Insurance and the young QB flashed intriguing potential during the preseason. He’s already recorded his first NFL touchdown pass, in garbage time during the 4^th quarter of the blowout loss to the Chiefs. Still, is he ready? Probably not right now. After a year sitting and learning? Maybe.

That’s all it took for Brady.

The Patriots Win Super Bowl XLIX

Admittedly, this seems a longshot at the moment but this is all hypothetical, isn’t it?

Let’s say New England captures its fourth Lombardi Trophy in the Arizona desert next February. Brady breaks Joe Montana’s record for TD passes in the postseason. Brady is awarded a third Super Bowl MVP. Brady is the first to appear in six Super Bowls and just the third to win four.

What’s left?

The final two years on his contract, that’s what.

From a Belichick/Patriots point of view, there is no better time to trade Brady than right after a championship parade. The good citizens of Patriots Nation will be passed out drunk for a month to six weeks. We’ll cry when we read the inevitable full page farewell from Brady in the Globe and Herald. Belichick will be vilified. The Krafts will bemoan the cruel realities of the business and shrug their shoulders. Pigskin pundits and bobbleheads will pay tribute to Brady and wonder why it had to end this way. Belichick will be vilified some more. And then, articles with a different point of view will appear. They will ask us not to blame Jimmy Garoppolo for the Brady trade, to give the kid a chance, to acknowledge there is little we can do but accept the new reality.

An Offer You Can’t Refuse

Brady is worth it. The jersey sales alone might justify it. Acquiring Brady is going to boost season-ticket sales for his new employers, too. Bottom line, Brady is a cash flow. So, you’re giving up a 1^st round pick for Brady, that’s the minimum bid. The question is, what else are you giving up?

Another 1^st rounder? Two 2^nd round picks? A 2^nd, 4^th and 5^th? How much room is left on that napkin?

The point is that Bill Belichick is all about value. There is a package of picks and/or players that will get this done.

This is the hardest variable to solve for in the equation. Knowing if Garoppolo is ready, New England’s willingness to part with Brady are the easy parts. Finding a GM willing to overpay for Tom Terrific won’t be nearly so easy, despite the birth rate of suckers. Difficult, but not impossible. A few possibilities in no particular order…

AFC East – The other teams in the AFC East know just how much Brady is worth and they all have issues at QB. The Buffalo Bills would be the second best team in the AFC with Tom Brady at QB. They have a running game, talented wide receivers and a Top 5 defense. I don’t think they have any draft picks after making the Sammy Watkins deal, though. The Miami Dolphins would be a playoff contender with Brady but while they have a solid defense and good wide receivers, they don’t have a running back you can actually name (can you?). The Jets would still suck, even with Brady at QB. The Jets draft picks would probably have the most value.

Oakland Raiders – If Al Davis was still alive this would be a slam dunk. If they really think Derek Carr is their QB of the Future, Brady would be the perfect bridge. Think Kurt Warner mentoring Eli Manning.

Arizona Cardinals – Carson Palmer? Really?

St. Louis Rams – I don’t know why Jeff Fisher hasn’t called Belichick already.

Chicago Bears – Tired of waiting for Jay Cutler to get it?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Lovie Smith thought so little of Mike Glennon that he brought Josh McCown in. McCown is nearly as old as Brady and that’s the only “nearly as” comparison McCown will draw to Brady.

Houston Texans – With the exception of starting QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Texans look like a pretty good team.

Tennessee Titans – Still waiting for Jack Locker to stay on the field for a full 16 game schedule.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m in the “I hope the people who think trading Brady is never going to happen are right” camp. I want to see Brady retire a Patriot. I want his last completion to be a Super Bowl winning touchdown pass. That would be sweet.

The odds of that happening?

1 in a 1,000,000,000?  

So you’re saying there’s a chance?