The Gauntlet

We knew it was coming. As soon as the schedule was announced we knew it was coming. The six game mid-season gauntlet that would make or break the 2014 Patriots. And that was when everyone thought they were Super Bowl contenders. Now? Now it seems they’ll be lucky to go 2-4-0.

Maybe 1-5-0.

Ouch.

I wasn’t buying it – certainly not 1-5-0 – until I heard Chandler Jones would be out for a month with a hip injury and then, okay, I still wasn’t buying it. I get it though. This doesn’t look good. Succumbing to the siren call of recency: New England cannot stop the run and generally they’re not very good, nowhere near as good as their record, having to eke out wins against the woeful Jets and other bad teams and their signature win came against a Bengals team we thought was good but now realize are pigskin charlatans. Tom Brady has had a good stretch, sure, but he’s no longer elite and the game has clearly passed Bill Belichick by.

The Patriots are about to be stripped naked, poked with pitchforks and chased through the streets of Foxborough by some actual good teams.

Kill the monster!

Okay, let me start with this. Let’s say the Patriots do go 2-4-0. That would put them at 7-6-0 with three divisional games left to finish the season (vs. Miami, @NYJ, vs. Buffalo). They would need to sweep those games and hope 10-6-0 wins any and all tiebreakers.

It’s doable.

But not ideal.

Could the Patriots do better than 2-4-0 over the next six games?

Chicago Bears – This is a home game for the Patriots so it’s a must get. The Bears will be loaded for, um, the Bears will be desperate and is often the case with the “us against the world” scenario following a locker room meltdown like Brandon Marshall had after the Bears extended their home winless streak against the Dolphins. Expect the visitor to bring their “A” game. See, Oakland Raiders. The Patriots are going to find it difficult on defense missing Jerod Mayo and for the next three games, Chandler Jones.

Quick Aside: I was intrigued by the Akeem Ayers trade. Until I heard about Ayer’s multiple off-season knee surgeries. Yeesh! Okay, if his knees are all better and there’s even the slightest chance Ayers can return to his 2012 form, then I guess it’s worth a 6^th round pick. As for the rumored signing of defensive end Alan Branch, well, this is not encouraging and for whatever reason, he’s yet to practice (and his signing isn’t yet official). He did play for Seattle a couple years ago. I’ll hold out hope that these are the type of mid-level veteran acquisitions that once made Belichick famous. Okay…

I’d be happy to see the Patriots go to a blitz-heavy game plan but that just doesn’t sound like Belichick, does it? Still, I’d like to see Jay Cutler sacked a lot which will be hard without Chandler Jones unless the Pats blitz. Why is it so much fun to see Jay Cutler get sacked? It’s not just me, is it? Anyway, I think the Patriots can outscore the Bears. Something like 43-37. New England gets the extra possessions they need to win off two turnovers. I mean, it’s Jay Cutler. I think I’m betting the under, really.

Patriots 6-2-0

Denver Broncos – Another “Everything Must Go!” sale for the Manning vs. Brady cottage industry. The Broncos are kind of juggernauty again in 2014 both on offense and on defense. I expect the Patriots to be involved in yet another shootout but sadly come up short. (Alternative Future: New England wins on a Julian Edelman punt return. Ooh! Ooh! A Danny Amendola kickoff return!) Is there really such a thing as a good loss? I’m going with no. You’ve got to believe Aqib Talib will be moderately jacked for this one. Do you think Wes Welker remembers that he once played for the Patriots? (Ha, ha! What? Too soon?) If he does, I’m guessing bygones are not bygones. In fact, I can’t believe it’s not personal and I definitely don’t believe it’s over. Plus, Peyton Manning has the kind of weapons Tom Brady never gets (except for that one time). I’m thinking 49-45 Broncos. Hey, if the Pats can only beat the Broncos once this season… Am I right?

Patriots 6-3-0

Indianapolis Colts – The Pats hit the road after their bye week to take on a Colts team that has to be thinking a Super Bowl XLIX berth is a real possibility for them. The AFC South is theirs to lose and Andrew Luck is the total package. Can the Patriots catch the Colts blinded by the stars in their eyes? It’s not something you can count on but it could happen. Any team can come out flat and have a bad day. It’s one of life’s great pigskin mysteries. Sometimes all it takes is a bad half, though I wouldn’t count on any halftime lead being safe against Luck and the Colts offense.

Maybe it’s the bye week that has me thinking the Patriots can steal this one. Belichick will have two weeks to game plan and there’s even a long shot that Chandler Jones could be back for this game (probably not). Chuck Pagano and his staff are more than capable and Indy will be coming off a bye week, too, but I still have to give Belichick the edge here. Brady will be able to put points on the board against the Colts defense. I’ll go 31-16 Patriots for the usual and customary reasons; Belichick and Brady.

Patriots 7-3-0

Detroit Lions – After dropping the Broncos game the Patriots can ill afford another loss at home. I can’t see it happening against the Lions. Yes, the defensive line is formidable but I’d give the Patriots the edge at every other position group. Matthew Stafford beating Tom Brady? Please.

Quick Aside: Look, I’m totally cool with Colin Kaepernick’s tattoos and Matthew Stafford wearing his Lions’ baseball cap backwards ultimately has nothing to do with wins and losses but I saw some pregame clips from last week as the trainers were working with Calvin Johnson before the game and there was Stafford checking in on his #1 wide receiver with his lid on backwards and I thought, “When is this guy going to grow up?” As I said, I know how a guy wears a hat has nothing to do with wins and losses and you want a starting QB who’s loose enough to step into the huddle and ask “Isn’t that John Candy?” but there’s also a certain seriousness you want in a franchise QB and while you shouldn’t judge a man by his hat (I’m looking at you Pharrell) I still can’t help wondering if Stafford has the whatever it is it takes to reach an elite, championship level of play. Now if you’ll excuse me, I have to go yell at some kids in my yard. Okay…

Chandler Jones should be back for this one but he probably won’t be 100%. Still, I’m not even sure this will be close. It’s just hard for me to think of the Lions as competent. Or clutch. The bigger this game is for Detroit the more I like New England. I’ll go 34-13 Patriots.

Patriots 8-3-0

Green Bay – Historic Lambeau Field. Aaron Rodgers. The Packers have a championship offense and defense won’t be able to stop the Patriots’ offense. So, that’s right, yet another shootout and whoever gets the ball last wins.

Quick Aside: It’s hard not to like Aaron Rodgers’ “discount double-check” persona. I have no idea who he is in real life. He might be a total dick but I’d guess not. Hard to imagine he’s that good an actor. He certainly pulls off the bemused/perplexed affect and the Hans and Franz ad – once you get past the fact that you weren’t really waiting to see the Hans and Franz characters ever again – is kind of fun and even if you saw it coming from a mile away has a great visual punch line. Okay…

I’ll give the nod to the Pack at home, 38-26.

Patriots 8-4-0

San Diego – Long flight and a tough opponent. The East-to-West trip is a little easier than the West-to-East trip but nobody likes being stuck in an airplane for 4+ hours, especially (I would think) plus-sized men. The Chargers are very good. They don’t have much of a running game but with Philip Rivers playing at an MVP level they haven’t needed much of a running game. Their defense is better against the pass than against the run so they match up pretty well with the Patriots. Unless Shane Vereen stays healthy and Jonas Gray develops into a reliable option between the tackles, this will be a tough get for the Patriots. It may well be that San Diego – with Denver and Kansas City in their division – will need this game a lot more than New England. There’s some history between these teams, too. I can only hope Rivers wants this game too much and forces a few throws that turn into interceptions. Am I talking myself into this one? Yes. Yes I am. Patriots 38-37.

Patriots 9-4-0

Okay. I’m not an objective observer but is 4-2-0 over the next six games really out of the question? Another 12-4-0 season for the Patriots? Yeah, that’s what I’m saying. If Brady continues to play like he has over the last three weeks, the Patriots will be in every game they play with a chance to win in the 4^th quarter. Nothing in this pigskin life is certain, of course. I’m making some assumptions; the offensive line will come together, the defense will figure out how to play without Jerod Mayo, Akeem Ayers’ knees are good to go, Chandler Jones will come back from the hip injury and pick up where he left off, Shane Vereen can carry the load at RB1, Gronk will stay healthy, Bill Belichick hasn’t forgotten more than you know about football – he hasn’t forgotten anything and as noted above, Brady will be Brady.