What must it be like for Tom Brady and Darrelle
Revis at practice every day? They’re like pigskin ninja masters jousting a best
of 7 match. They’re like Wiley Coyote and Sam Sheepdog (if
Wiley Coyote actually won on occasion) punching in to battle it out for all
they’re worth until the whistle blows and they’re off the clock again. They
push each other. Sam makes Wiley wilier; Wiley makes Sam study more film.
If it’s possible that Brady and Revis can actually
make each other better, Patriots fans could be in for the ride of their lives
in 2014. If Revis helps those young receivers accelerate their development,
Brady could post MVP numbers again. If Revis can still take away one half of
the field, Devin McCourty could put up career numbers in interceptions with
that much less ground to cover; Chandler Jones could put up career numbers in
sacks with an extra second and a half from improved coverage.
It isn’t that hard to believe all of those things
are possible, is it? All the chatter from the west coast from Richard Sherman
and Patrick Peterson about which one of them is the best and who’s a true
shutdown cornerback ignores the fact that Revis is still in the conversation.
Revis has been in the conversation for so long it’s easy to forget he’s still
on the right side of 30. Perhaps its noteworthy Revis doesn’t feel the need to
pimp his game on Twitter. If you have to tell everyone you’re the best, maybe
you aren’t.
Revis is the tipping point. There are a lot of
very good players on the Patriots defense. There are a few pro bowl players
there, too. Revis is elite. He will make some of those very good players look
great and the pro bowl players look like they might have a shot at Canton. By
mid-season there will be pigskin pundits and bobbleheads asking if Darrelle
Revis is the best corner to ever play for the Patriots, a list that includes
Raymond Clayborn, Hall of Famer Mike Haynes and Ty Law.
NFL players are proud and competitive by nature
(or they wouldn’t have made it to the NFL) but it’s hard to imagine two players
more prideful and competitive than Tom Brady and Darrelle Revis. Revis has said
all the right things about being the new guy and veteran team leaders like
McCourty but would any of us be surprised if Revis is voted a team captain for
2014?
There are injury and depth questions for the
defense heading into training camp (and dancing isn’t the same as playing football) but this is the time of wild
optimism. This is the time of the year when fans are dreaming of Hall of Fame
careers and Super Bowl rings for 7th round picks and undrafted
rookies. (I’m looking at you Jeremy Gallon and Justin Jones.) Why not the best
case scenario?
Here are a few things my glass is half full of…
Darrelle Revis Plays
Himself out of New England’s Price Range…
Revis has only two items on his personal agenda; first
win a Super Bowl and second make even more money in 2015. You can decry Revis’
seemingly mercenary approach to the game but remember this is professional football. If I were a
young, talented athlete I’d be signing up with Revis’ agent and studying the
Revis Business Plan. If you’re one of the citizens who wanted the Patriots to
surround Brady with more weapons before his Super Bowl window closes; if you
wanted to win in 2014 then you should love Darrelle Revis. What better weapon
could Tom Terrific ask for than a Super Bowl caliber defense? How tall were
Tom’s wide receivers back in 2003-04, anyway?
I already sketched out the knock on effect Revis
can have (above) in helping the wide receivers develop in practice and his
defensive teammates produce on game day. As for Revis himself I’m penciling him
in for 6 interceptions and two TDs in 2014 and if I were a betting man, I’d
take the over. I shouldn’t. No QB is throwing at Revis in 2014.
Vince Wilfork Plays Less/Plays
Better…
Sealver Siliga, Armond Armstead, 1st
round pick Dominique Easley and Chris Jones should all take some snaps at
defensive tackle in 2014, giving Wilfork’s bionic Achilles tendon some relief.
Wilfork, Tommy Kelly, Siliga and Armstead/Jones provide the team with some
intriguing situational packages. I would expect Wilfork to start slowly and the
coaching staff to manage his snaps even after he’s 100%. Siliga and Jones were
pleasant surprises in 2013 and they had an off-season in the program. They
should be better in 2014. If Armstead can finally get on the playing field and
live up to expectations, the Patriots will have a solid rotation at DT.
I know I should be cautiously optimistic about
Easley but I’m expecting him to contribute in 2014. I know he’s coming off a
second ACL repair but everything I’ve read has me feeling, well, cautiously
optimistic. If you haven’t hit up his highlights on YouTube you should. I
thought it was interesting Florida lined him up all over the place, including
defensive end. The Patriots like to bump Chandler Jones inside on passing
downs; how about Easley at DE in those situations? I like any combination of
Jones, Easley and Ninkovich with their hands in the dirt on passing downs
whether Jones is inside or outside.
Chandler Jones and Rob
Ninkovich Play Less/Produce More…
I don’t know if it’s really so much about the
regular season numbers as it is having Jones and Ninko fresh for the playoffs.
Still, I could see Jones setting a team record in sacks in 2014. Not that it
will be easy topping Andre Tippett’s mark of 18.5. Perhaps it’s
just as optimistic but slightly more reasonable to see Jones and Ninkovich
setting a team mark for most combined sacks in a season.
The addition of Will Smith, the development of
young players like Michael Buchanan and (fingers crossed) 2014 draft pick Zach
Moore, combined with improved coverage by the Revis-led secondary should all be
contributing factors but I’m expecting more of Jones this year in any case. Talent plus hard work is usually a
good formula for success. Ninkovich may not have Jones’ athletic gifts but he
won’t be outworked and he’s smart and I wouldn’t expect any drop-off in his game in 2014. Having the two of them ready to go in
the playoffs could mean the difference in winning the AFC Championship game.
Jamie Collins Becomes Bill
Belichick’s Favorite Player…
If they stay healthy, the Patriots will have one
of if not the very best set of 4-3 linebackers in the league. Jerod Mayo,
Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins are all three down players (stretching that
a bit for Hightower, perhaps). Mayo is a tackling machine who might be used
more in blitz packages with Collins covering tight ends. Hightower seems like
he was genetically engineered to play middle linebacker in a 4-3 with unusual
speed and athleticism for a man carrying 270 pounds. With Mayo back and Collins
a full-time starter, Hightower will be in a position to make us all forget
about Brandon Spikes in 2014.
It’s Collins though, with his freakish
athleticism, that’s the straw stirring Bill Belichick’s Kool-Aid. He’s that
Swiss army knife player Belichick loves and quarterbacks hate. Is he dropping
into coverage? Is he blitzing? Where is he? He has his hand in the dirt?
Belichick will use Collins like three different chess pieces, creating
mismatches for Collins or for others. Like Revis, Collins’ skill set will
translate into opportunities for others (Chandler Jones, Mayo, Hightower and
Ninkovich).
I’m expecting game-changing plays from Collins in
his second year. I’m looking for 4+ interceptions, 2+ forced fumbles and 4+
sacks. I expect him to nullify pass catching tight ends and consistently beat
blocking tight ends in run or pass situations. Offenses that fail to game plan
for Collins will pay the price in 2014. MVP in the AFC Championship game. Where
do I make that prop bet?
Danny Amendola Shuts Up the
Haters…
If only he can stay healthy.
Remember when we used to say that about Julian
Edelman? It was just a year ago. No? Remember how freaked out we all were going
into a season where Edelman was practically the only guy on the roster who’d
caught a pass from Tom Brady? No?
Edelman will be TB12’s first and last look as long
as he’s on the field in 2014 and he should be. Jules earned that in 2013. He
may be living proof that 80% of life is just showing up by playing in all 16
games last year. Edelman posted career numbers in 2013 and earned his
first big payday since entering the league
as a converted QB.
Meanwhile, it seems Danny Amendola’s last name was
legally changed to “Whose Only Contribution in the AFC Championship Was A Drop”
during the off-season and Patriots Nation is still wondering what we will see
from Amendola if only he can stay healthy. There’s no questioning Amendola’s
talent and toughness. Playing hurt in 2013, he caught 54 passes for 633 yards
in 12 games, numbers that project to 72 catches and 844 yards over a full
season. Nice numbers, but let’s be wildly optimistic here.
Remember Week 1 against Buffalo, before
Amendola tore his groin muscle clean off the bone? 10 catches on 14 targets for
104 yards? Granting numbers like that aren’t sustainable over a 16 game season,
specifically because he plays for a weekly game plan team like Bill Belichick’s
Patriots, let’s do the math anyway: 160 receptions for 1,664 yards. There were
other flashes of what Amendola can do in 2013; the early November game against
the Steelers (4 catches for 122 yards and a TD) and the December game against
the Dolphins (10 catches for 131 yards).
Edelman’s career arc provides important context
here. It’s no guarantee, of course, that Amendola will enjoy a career-year
assuming 16 starts but it wouldn’t be terribly surprising either. In terms of
adding weapons for Brady, a healthy Danny Amendola isn’t such a bad option.
I’ll take that 16 game projection from his 2013
numbers and be happy but I believe he’ll do better than that in 2014.
Aaron Dobson’s Foot is Just
Fine…
In just 12 games, Aaron Dobson tantalized Patriots Nation with his potential for
that big, outside the numbers wide receiver the Patriots offense has lacked
since Randy Moss fell down and went crazy in 2010. His 37 catches, 519 yards
and 4 TDs represent one of the best statistical seasons for a rookie WR during
the Belichick-Brady years. We were all looking forward to the second year leap,
with Dobson stretching the field, making big plays and opening things up
underneath for Edelman and Amendola.
The surgery to repair the stress fracture in
Dobson’s left foot has obviously impacted his ability to make a literal or
virtual leap. If my glass wasn’t half full, I’d be wondering about the
long-term implications of a foot injury for a wide receiver.
[Fingers firmly planted in ears] La, la, la, la,
la, la, la, la, la, la, la, la, la, la!
Dobson will be fine. I don’t think the reps he’s
missing in OTAs will have much of an impact on his progression in the Patriots’
offense. If he puts up a slash line of 55/750/8 in 2014, we should be very
happy with Aaron Dobson. After all, there are only so many catches to go
around.
Gronk’s Knee is Just Fine…
Rob Gronkowski may start the season on the PUP or
IR/Return list but when he’s back on the field he will once again be the
game-changing force he’s always been. Following a much more difficult recovery
from back and multiple arm surgeries in 2013, he still posted 39 catches, 592
yards and 4 TD in just 7 games (projects to 89/1353/9). He’ll probably wear a
brace and that may take some getting used to but I’m looking forward to a
healthy, devastating Gronk in the playoffs this year.
I want you Seattle and your so called Legion of
Boom in Super Bowl XLIX!
Gronk spike!
Tom Brady Ain’t Done Yet, Jimmy…
Brady’s struggles in 2013 clearly had less to do
with his birth certificate and far more to do with rookie receivers, the
struggles of Ryan Wendell and Dan Connolly and injuries to key offensive
players like Amendola, Gronkowski, Shane Vereen and Sebastian Vollmer. In 2014
the defense will be better (maybe good enough to start some comparisons with
the ’01-’04 unit), the offensive line has added youth and size, the running
game added depth and versatility and those rookie receivers are second-year
players now.
I don’t think Brady will be breaking
Peyton Manning’s single season TD record in 2014 but we should see Tom
Terrific post numbers close to his career averages; an uptick in completion percentage
and yards per attempt over his 2013 numbers with 30+ TD passes sounds about
right. I suspect Brady will do all of that while throwing the ball fewer than
600 times for the first time since 2010. The Patriots like to have a balanced
offense but they’ll run the ball more in 2014 than they have in recent years because
the improved defense will allow them to play with a lead and grind clock in the
4th quarter.
Slow Your Roll, Sparky…
Okay, not all of these good things can happen (can
they?) but none of them sound particularly outlandish, do they? Tom Brady
having a borderline MVP year? That could happen. Darrelle Revis shutting down
the left side of the field on a weekly basis? That could happen. Tom Brady with
a Top 5 defense winning a Super Bowl. That could happen.
That’s already happened.
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