It’s all good news, seemingly. There are still
question marks, sure. Gronk, Dobson, Easley. But there are others more
ambulatory in their recovery. Mayo, Vollmer and Wilfork all seem to be on or
above plan. I’m feeling good about this thing.
Acknowledging that it’s only OTAs, I loved the
news out of OTAs!
It’s easy to read too much into these early season
stories, of course. Take Jimmy Garoppolo, for example. It seems the
rookie is picking things up quickly, showing noticeable improvements week to
week. I’m already on record when it comes to Garoppolo beating out Ryan Mallett
for the #2 spot on the QB depth chart so you know I have Mallett on the trade
block. Mallett will undoubtedly walk in 2015; if the Patriots are going to get
anything in return they will need to take advantage of another team’s
misfortune – a season-ending injury in preseason action. That’s certainly
possible but hardly a certainty. It still seems more likely Mallett is on the
New England roster when the Patriots tee it up with the Dolphins.
Whatever the case, let’s hope that backup QB is
the least of New England’s worries in 2014.
A third QB on the roster diminishes the chances of
Jeremy Gallon and Roy Finch making the final 53, of course; two players I’ve
got high hopes for as New England’s versions of DeSean Jackson and Darren
Sproles. Yeah, I’m dreaming big for these guys. They don’t have to be D-Jax and
Sproles in their rookie years but they do need to make the roster if that’s
ever going to happen. Neither one of these two guys will make it through to the practice
squad.
Gallon and Finch returning kickoffs and punts and
getting a few snaps in third down packages is probably one of several best case
scenarios I’ve penciled in for the 2014 season…
Aaron Dobson Comes Back
from his Foot Injury and Plays All 16
Despite an injury shortened rookie season, Dobson
still had one of the best seasons for a first year receiver during the
Belichick-Brady era. Had we seen the back-shoulder pass in the Patriots’
offensive arsenal before Dobson crossed the chalk in 2013? Dobson’s
rehab-related absence from OTAs is definitely harshing my buzz but he showed
enough promise as a frosh for me to think 60 catches, 900 yards and 8 TDs would
look good in 2014 and if I had to bet on those numbers, I’d probably take the
over.
Dominique Easley Turns Out
to be as Good as Bill Belichick Thinks He Is
When healthy, Easley is a game-changing weapon who
can play anywhere on the defensive line. I’m keeping good thoughts about his
surgically repaired ACLs (better than the factory parts?). Could we
project a Jamie Collins-like rookie year for Easley? A slow start, a few snaps
in passing down packages in weeks 1-8 followed by an increase in snaps and impact
over weeks 9-17 with a ready-for-my-close-up performance in the playoffs?
Anything more than that would be gravy.
I love gravy.
Josh Boyce is as Good as I
Think He Is
When they were drafted and I was combing through
their highlights on YouTube, I liked Boyce a lot better than Dobson. The news
out of OTAs is that the now healthy Josh Boyce is taking full advantage of his reps. This is terrific news given the question marks around Boyce’s foot,
Amendola’s soft tissue and the enigmatic Kenbrell Thompkins.
I know many of my fellow citizens of Patriots
Nation dream of tall wide receivers who can play outside the numbers but I
value speed over height and Josh Boyce has the wheels. I don’t care if he is 5’
11”, I’d be lining him up on the outside. 45 receptions at 16+ yards per catch
are probably wildly optimistic numbers if Amendola and Dobson are both healthy
and absolutely necessary if they aren’t.
Gronk is Healthy for the
Playoffs
Much more than having Rob Gronkowski play 16 games
in the regular season and making everyone realize just how ridiculous it was to
call Jimmy Graham the best TE in the NFL, the Patriots need Gronk healthy for
the playoffs. Not that I would mind having both, of course, but if I only get
one I want the playoffs.
Gronk spike!
Related: D.J. Williams/Asa
Watson or Justin Jones Becomes a Credible Option at TE
I’ve given up on the Dustin Keller/Jermichael
Finley narrative. Maybe I’ll be proven wrong and one (or both) of these
potential Comeback Player of the Year candidates sign during training camp. One
or both of them would’ve signed already if New England thought they could
contribute in 2014; get them in the program sooner rather than later to work
with the training staff and get into the playbook so they’re ready for Week 1.
But they haven’t signed.
Let’s move on…
I like Hooman better than most and feel confident he could be
used more as a receiver if needed. It’s easy to forget the five-year veteran is
just 25 years old but expecting him to “break out” in 2014 with 20-30
receptions is just crazy talk. Could he put up those numbers if given the
opportunity? Yeah, sure, but if Hooman is being targeted 30-45 times it’s
probably because something bad has happened on the magnitude of losing Gronk
and Amendola or Edelman.
I also think the wistful longing for the Two TE
Offense is a bit overblown. Is it a part of the Patriots being multiple on
offense? Sure. With Gronk as one of those two tight ends, Tom Terrific can let
the defense declare and take what they give him, run or pass. If that other
tight end can block or catch it gives
OC Josh McDaniel and Brady an even greater advantage, especially in the red
zone. I just think a single TE offense – as long as that TE is Rob Gronkowski –
with a Pu-Pu platter of Edelman, Dobson, Amendola, Boyce, LaFell and maybe
Jeremy Gallon at the X, Y and Z can be highly effective.
Having said that, the ability to put two or three
tight ends on the field at the same time does give the New England offense a
significant and proven tactical advantage. Justin Jones is probably a reach as
Gronk’s backup but I guess I’m just as susceptible to the Tall Guy Bias as the
next guy. I’ve already rationalized a roster spot for Jones on the basis of his
ability to block kicks and defend against the Hail Mary by opponents.
As noted above, I’m not that worried about the
move TE with Hooman on the roster but it seems D.J. Williams is at least saying the right things.
Zach Moore Generates
Comparisons to Deacon Jones by Thanksgiving
Small school to NFL? Check. Athletic freak? Check.
After that, we have to see how it goes.
Comparing a rookie from a D-II school to one of
the greatest to ever play the game is inherently unfair, of course. I really
need to let go of this one. How about 10-15 snaps a game without embarrassing
himself?
Jamie Collins Makes the 2nd
Year Leap Over a Tall Building
With apologies to Darrelle Revis and Chandler
Jones, Jamie Collins may be the most important player on defense for the Patriots in 2014. Its bad math to project Collins’ breakout
game against the
Colts in last year’s playoffs over a full season but math was never my
strong suit. Let’s go *16…
96 tackles, 16 sacks, 16 passes defended and 16
interceptions.
The word unprecedented springs to mind.
Not to mention the words, small data sample.
With more offenses going to no huddle in an effort
to keep defenses from substituting into situational packages, three-down
defenders are at a premium. Players like Collins who can dominate on all three
downs are pigskin platinum. He can set the edge, rush the passer and cover
tight ends man-to-man. There’s no way he piles up the stat line above even if
he’ll rarely leave the field. I mean, that would be impossible, wouldn’t it?
Yeah. I’m still thinking about it.
A Less Crazy Trade Scenario
Than Ryan Mallett for a 1st Round Pick
Maybe it falls well short of “best case” but I’ve
got a trade scenario that does involve the Houston Texans but doesn’t involve
Ryan Mallett.
Arian Foster is returning from a back injury. Ben
Tate is gone. I think the Houston Texans could be looking for a running back at
some point during the preseason. How about Stevan Ridley and a 4th
round pick and/or Kenbrell Thompkins for Andre Johnson? Johnson would need to
be willing to rework his contract but that shouldn’t be a problem if he’s
sincere in his desire to play for a winner. Would Ridley, Thompkins and a draft
pick be enough for a
guy who doesn’t seem to want to play for you anymore?
Yeah. That’s not going to happen.
But I’m still going to think about it.
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