Opportunity
will straight up knock you out.
2013 is
looking like it could be the most interesting season for Patriots fans since
2007. I would be remiss if I didn’t note that “interesting” is at the heart of
an ancient Chinese curse: May you live in interesting times. Still, I can’t
help but feel excited and energized by the possibilities that lie ahead.
Obviously, it’s been a long time since 2001. Then I watched the Patriots play
without any expectations of division titles, let alone Super Bowl wins. Just as
obviously, expectations set by the accomplishments of the past decade – if muted
by recent events – still remain.
2001
wasn’t that long ago in geologic terms but in the “Not For Long” league it can
literally be a lifetime. If my math is correct, Tom Brady is the only player on
the 2013 roster who wears a ring from that first championship season. Next man
up isn’t just the Patriot Way, it’s the NFL way. Bill Belichick has often noted
that no team actually defends the championship. There’s too much turnover on
the roster; every season a new team take the field and faces a new set of challenges.
Every other team in the league has changed, too. As Paul Simon once sang, every
generation throws a hero up the pop charts.
Okay,
sometimes that turns out to be Justin Bieber.
Apparently,
these are interesting times.
Anyway,
the Patriots’ 2013 season will hinge on how several players take advantage of
the opportunities in front of them. Opportunity is knocking hard; so who’s
busting through that door?
Shane Vereen – We’ve seen flashes of what Vereen can do
with the ball in his hands. With elfin Danny Woodhead leaving for the soft
breezes and low expectations of San Diego, Vereen is expected to step into
Woodhead’s role on 3rd downs. Most Patriots’ fans would be happy if
Vereen matches Woodhead’s 2012 production but in thinking about Vereen’s role
with Aaron Hernandez also out of the picture, I began wondering when the last
time a running back gained 1,000+ yards receiving. I was quite excited by this
prospect until I looked it up and realized only two running backs in the
history of the NFL have gained 1,000+ yards receiving (and their names are Roger
Craig and Marshall Faulk). So, maybe 1,000+ yards is a bit rich. How about 800
yards and 8 TD? I believe Stevan Ridley running the ball and Shane Vereen
catching the ball will be the keys to the Patriots 2013 season.
Tim Tebow – I still believe that if we see Tim Tebow on the field in 2013
it will be with Tom Brady, not without him. Tebow lining up next to Brady in
the shotgun provides Josh McDaniels with multiple options and defenses with
multiple headaches. Just what Tom Terrific needed; another advantage when it
comes to making the pre-snap read. The Patriots could run the read option with
Brady making the read before the ball is snapped. (Brady will of course pass,
not run, when he keeps the ball.) I’m penciling in Tebow for second leading
rusher on the team in 2013 while leading the league in reminding everyone just
who Jesus is rooting for in 2013.
LeGarrette Blount/Brandon Bolden – Only one of these guys will make the
final 53. Whoever does should have a chance to spell Ridley and pick up some
short yardage and fourth quarter carries when the Patriots are sitting on a
lead. With the offensive line being one of the strengths of the Patriots, I’m
hoping Bill Belichick has been reviewing old film of John Riggins running Joe
Gibbs’ counter trey.
Danny Amendola – Amendola’s reputation for being fragile
is so ingrained in the collective pigskin psyche that I recently read a blog
post that claimed he had yet to play a full 16-game season. In fact, he played 16
his second year in (2010) after playing 14 as a rookie. Without a Randy Moss on
the outside, it will be hard for Amendola to reprise Wes Welker’s first season
as a Patriot but how about 15 games, 85 catches, 900 yards and 8 TD? Yeah, we’d
all take that, wouldn’t we?
Aaron Dobson/Josh Boyce – So, Dobson didn’t get off to a fast
start in OTA’s and Boyce didn’t even get on the field. I’m not worried. One of
these guys (it would be too much to ask for both) is going to contribute this
season. I’ll say 40-45 catches with 4 TD from one; a combined 60 for 650 and 6
TD from both.
Julian Edelman – Edelman was looking a lot like Troy
Brown when he went down with a season-ending foot injury last year, making
plays on offense and on special teams and everyone remembering that he played
DB the year before. He was looking a lot like he was finally going to break
out. The Leon Washington and Lavelle Hawkins signings may indicate that
Edelman’s foot is not healing as quickly as anticipated. I hope that’s not
true. I hope Edelman makes the WR rotation on offense and returns another punt
for a TD in 2013. Despite his diminutive status, I wonder if his speed doesn’t
make him a better fit on the outside than in the slot. Hmm. What are the odds
both Edelman and Amendola stay off the IR list this year? Probably not that
good. Ballers. You can’t spell reckless abandon without the homophone for
wreck.
Michael Jenkins – At what point does the 10-year veteran
get sick and tired of being dissed by pigskin pundits and bobbleheads? His
nickname should be “Spare Parts.” Which is marginally better than
“Disappointing Former 1st Rounder” I suppose. If Jenkins could
manage 40 catches with Christian Ponder under center, is it crazy to pencil him
in for 55-60 with Brady in the pocket? Jenkins isn’t elite but he is solid and
smart. 228 of his career 354 receptions have gone for first downs (a 64% mark -
Aaron Hernandez: 100 of 175, 57%). A big, smart wide receiver + Tom Brady = a
high rate of return on investment.
Jake Ballard – Most pigskin pundits and bobbleheads
have Rob Gronkowski on the PUP list to start the season. That will give Ballard
a chance to establish himself. Ballard showed promise as a rookie, averaging
nearly 16 yards a catch and racking up 31 first downs on his 38 catches (82%!
Which makes sense when you average nearly 16 yards a catch.) The Patriots are
clearly better with a healthy Gronkowski than without him but even if Gronk is
good to go for the season opener, I would still expect the Patriots to manage
his snaps in the first 4-6 games. Establishing some trust in Ballard early on
will play dividends in December. I’m hoping for something in the 40 catch
range. More than that would probably mean more unplanned downtime for Gronk
which would be the opposite of awesome.
Zack Sudfeld – See above re: Gronk. The undrafted
rookie free agent made the most of his reps in OTA’s with Gronk in surgery and
Ballard limited as he makes his return from knee surgery. I’m getting a little
bit ahead of myself in granting Sudfeld a spot on the final 53 but let’s say he
beats out the enigmatic Daniel Fells for the final TE spot on the roster
(Gronk, Ballard, Hooman and Sudfeld). The Patriots could put all four of them
on the field at the same time using Hooman as an HB/FB with Ridley running the
old counter trey. Use Gronk and Ballard in line and Sudfeld on the wing
blocking down, Hooman sealing the back side and Mankins and Connolly pulling
and leading. Run that a few times and then it’s time for Brady in play action,
with Gronk up the seam and Sudfeld to the corner with Ballard finding the open
space underneath.
Logan Mankins – A year removed from surgery and it’s
time to shut the haters up.
Armond Armstead – Armstead and Vince Wilfork should become
each other’s best friends in 2013. Wilfork will continue to enjoy his share of
double-teams which will leave Armstead to work one-on-one on the inside. Armstead
showed he had some game in the CFL. You can’t help wondering if Cameron Wake’s
success coming from the CFL is a harbinger of things to come with Armstead. Too
much? I’ll happily settle for Armstead being the Ron Brace we all had hoped
for.
Jake Bequette – He’s got the pedigree – 3rd
round pick out of the SEC – and he impressed in OTA’s after an almost invisible
rookie season. Can he play some quality snaps spelling Rob Ninkovich? The fact
the Patriots did not bring back Trevor Scott or sign John Abraham shows some
confidence in Bequette on the part of the coaching staff and has me hoping his
red shirt season pays dividends in 2013.
Chandler Jones – I like the Patriots’ defense in 2013.
One big reason for optimism is Jones. I’m looking forward to Jones feasting on
opponent QB’s this season as he makes the second year leap. I want to see him
send Mark Sanchez to the bench; I want to see him stunt Ryan Tannehill’s
development and I want to see him make Bills’ fans ask themselves, “Wasn’t E.J.
Manual supposed to be mobile?” while Kevin Kolb weeps quietly on the bench.
Michael Buchanan – This is probably wishful thinking but
I’m pulling for this guy. I think he’s a diamond in the rough that belies his 7th
round draft status. He certainly has the physical tools. I’m penciling in
Buchanan to spell Chandler Jones and be productive with 3 sacks and 6 QB
pressures.
Jamie Collins – I think the upside here is Andre
Tippett. Yeah, I said it. (Would you believe Roosevelt Colvin?) The Patriots
have a complementary set of linebackers with Collins, Jerod Mayo, Dont’a
Hightower, Brandon Spikes, and Dane Fletcher. In a pinch, Ninkovich can stand
up. Others like Steve Beauharnais and Jeff Tarpinian, et al. will likely spend
more time on special teams than defense. Belichick will be able to use Collins
as a chess piece, a knight who may advance or retreat asymmetrically, putting
him in position to make game-changing plays.
Dane Fletcher – Fletcher was set to be the third down
and swing linebacker for the Pats last year before blowing his knee out. A year
later, maybe a step slower and Fletcher may find it hard to get on the field if
Collins is as good as I anticipate. I hope Fletcher is only half a step slower
and can be a factor on special teams and defense. If he’s still got his speed
he should be good in coverage and he can be used to spy on mobile QBs.
Ras-I Dowling – Stop me if you’ve heard this one before:
Ras-I Dowling looked great in OTA’s!
Aqib Talib – Come this time next year, I’m hoping
Aqib Talib is not a Patriot because that will mean he played so well in 2013
that there’s no way New England can afford him.
Devin McCourty – I expect McCourty to be even better in
his second full year at safety. I expect he’ll be an All Pro in 2014 and I
expect he’ll be halfway there in 2013. 8+ INT and a couple of fumble recoveries
seems perfectly reasonable to the man who had two martinis at dinner.
Adrian Wilson – Okay, he’s not Rodney Harrison 2.0 and
that’s okay as long as he’s still Adrian Wilson. Wilson has the size line up as
a linebacker in passing situations allowing the Patriots to add speed at the
safety position or put four cornerbacks on the field to get the match ups they
want. I wonder if he’s still got enough speed left to blitz the quarterback
from that linebacker spot. That would be fun to see. Anyway, I don’t think
we’ll have to worry about Adrian Wilson leaving anything on the field. He might
not admit it – he might not like to admit it – but it’s Super Bowl or Bust for
the 13-year veteran. He will bring the wood, oh yes, he will. Those fumbles
McCourty will recover? Yeah. Wilson will make that happen.
Okay,
that’s quite a list. I know what you’re thinking. All of these guys can’t
possibly have their breakout years in the same season, could they? I suppose it
is statistically improbable. Still, what if it does happen?
It’s
happening in my head right now and it feels amazing.
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