Keeping the Faith

How about them Red Sox? In the wake of one the worst weeks in Boston sports history we are left with little that’s good other than the team everyone thought would finish in the basement of the AL East with the best record in all of the American League as we head into July and the All Star break. The Bruins fell short in game six and watched the Blackhawks hoist the cup on the TD Garden ice. I was one of those who thought the Celtics should’ve blown things up last year but it was still shocking to see Pierce and KG sent to the Brooklyn Nets for spare parts. All of that would’ve been bad enough and yet it wasn’t as we watched Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez arrested for murder.

There’s a silver lining here somewhere, isn’t there?

The loss of Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski’s nationwide tour of America’s health care system and Aaron Dobson’s underwhelming mini-camp were troubling enough before Hernandez was perp-walked from his North Attleboro McMansion. From the moment his arrest and release were announced, count me among those who immediately started wondering what this meant from a salary cap perspective and who was left in the free agent market (Dallas Clark, call me!). I looked for Zach Sudfeld highlights on YouTube and elsewhere in the blogosphere.

A few weeks ago, I thought this season would revolve around Wes Welker. I thought Welker and the Broncos would be the Patriots benchmark and nemesis all season long. The Broncos’ and Patriots’ 2013 storylines would be inextricably intertwined without Welker. Manning vs. Brady, Week 12. Sunday night game. Let’s say best record and home field in the playoffs is on the line. Add Welker to that already heady brew and now it’s a party.

Beyond that Week 12 match up, The Broncos are the early consensus Super Bowl pick for the AFC amongst the small data sample of pigskin pundits and bobbleheads I’ve read and heard. The Patriots were grudgingly conceded the AFC East and a playoff spot but more and more lately, it seems the Dolphins are seen dipping their toes into Cinderella’s slipper. I will grudgingly admit with the redo at WR and Gronk’s mounting medical bills it’s probably a fair assessment. But who’s betting against Brady? Is it so hard to believe the Patriots go 3-3 with Gronkowski on PUP then run the table when he comes back?

Clearly, not so hard for me.

I no longer see this season as a referendum on Welker. This season will be a throwback to a variation on those “Nobody respects us” years; a sort of self-imposed “us against the world” season. A year when the defense will need to win a game or two. A year when the running game and play action should return to prominence. A year when a player like Shane Vereen breaks out. A year that reminds all of us just how great Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are at what they do.

Yes, a lot of things will need to break their way for the Patriots to win the Super Bowl this year, but isn’t that true of any team in the NFL?

Top 10 Reasons for Patriots’ Fans to be Optimistic

1. Bill Belichick – Don’t you get the feeling Belichick lives for scenarios like the upcoming 2013 season? Simply winning may no longer be enough for Belichick. Degree of difficulty may have to be 3.5 or greater for it to really matter. If that’s true, Patriots’ fans should rest easy because I’d peg this year at 5.0.
2. Tom Brady – 34/8/4827/98.7 in 2012. I’ll take it. In fact, I think he’ll post similar numbers in 2013.
3. The Defense will be much better, possibly a Top 5 unit. Rock solid Vince Wilfork, Devin McCourty, Rob Ninkovich and Jerod Mayo, emerging stars Chandler Jones, Dont’a Hightower and Alfonzo Dennard, and playing for their next contract Brandon Spikes and Aqib Talib provide a potentially formidable core set of defenders. We could be spending the second half of the year comparing Ninkovich to Vrabel, Jones to McGinest and Wilfork to Wilfork. Maybe we’ll be comparing Jamie Collins to Andre Tippett and Dennard to Asante Samuel and Adrian Wilson as a poor man’s Rodney Harrison. With most of the pub going to the likes of the Broncos’, 49ers’, Ravens’ and Seahawks’ defenses, the Pats defense can definitely play that “nobody believed in us” card.
4. Tom Brady – Yes, he counts twice.
5. The Running Game – Stevan Ridley, Vereen, Leon Washington and either LeGarrette Blount or Brandon Bolden provide the speed, power and pass-catching skills, the offensive line returns all five starters and seasoned depth options. Add to that the big blocking tight ends and the Patriots have all the ingredients necessary to run the ball effectively in 2013. It would be like Belichick to put an offense together that features running backs at a time when it’s a minority position. It’s a passing league and defenses are designed to defend the pass. (It’s not like you can ignore Tom Brady, either.) Belichick is all about match ups. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ridley set team records for attempts and yards in 2013.
6. Play Action – Brady excels in play action, possessing some of the best ball fake skills in the league. An effective running game will set up play action giving Brady a clean pocket and an extra second or two to survey the field and turn the likes of Michael Jenkins into a pro bowler. And yes, this was my sneaky way of putting Tom Brady on my “Optimistic” list three times. (Four times if you count the parenthetical, above.)
7. Tim Tebow – I know what you’re thinking; Tim Tebow on reasons to be optimistic list? Well for me, however the Tim Tebow narrative plays out, I’ll take something positive away from it. If Tebow doesn’t make the final 53, I’ll tell myself the Patriots took a chance and weren’t afraid to admit it didn’t work out. They should kick the tires on a talent like Tebow. Nothing ventured… But I think Tebow will make the roster; not as a tight end (where did that crazy talk start?) and not replacing Tom Brady in goal line situations (that shit may have made sense with Mark Sanchez, I suppose). No, Tebow will line up with Brady. Tebow could be the second leading rusher on the Patriots in 2013, taking direct snaps and hand offs from Brady out of the shotgun. I want to see this. I want to see Tebow take a direct snap and follow Logan Mankins off tackle. I want to see Tebow catching screen passes. I want to see Tebow flexing for Jesus after a big first down. Let’s give the haters of the pigskin world another reason to hate the Patriots. You know you want this to happen.
8. Danny Amendola – I get the concerns about his ability to stay on the field but let’s not forget that (unlike Aaron Hernandez) Amendola has played a 16-game once in his career and in the early no hitting allowed action looks good working with Brady. Should we expect Wes Welker 2.0? Probably not. I think we may see Amendola on the outside and Julian Edelman in the slot so maybe the real comparison should be to everything that Brandon Lloyd was not.
9. Devin McCourty – I thought McCourty was ready to make the leap to elite at the safety position before the Pats picked up Adrian Wilson. If Wilson has anything left in the tank it will only make McCourty better. I’m looking for McCourty to have a lead the league in interceptions kind of year in 2013 as the Pats lead in takeaways and in turnover differential. I can see him on the receiving end of an ill-timed Peyton Manning interception, sealing the AFC Championship for the Patriots.
10. It’s Early – We haven’t started training camp or played even a preseason game. There are still so many possible futures. Chill, bro.