Going Deep

I just saw Jaws slot Brady as the 3^rd best QB in the NFL on ESPN. I’m good with it. I’m tired of the Manning vs. Brady debate and Aaron Rodgers is younger, thinner and blonder. Anyway, the highlights avoided any mention of Hernandez, of course. We saw a Gronkowski catch (yes!) and that sweet go route by Vereen against the Texans in the playoffs but it was Brandon Lloyd who was the surprising star of the highlight real, making a diving catch for a TD and loping wide open into the end zone on play action. Watching some of the catches Lloyd made in 2012 I couldn’t help wondering, what is the deal with Brandon Lloyd?

Start typing “Brandon Lloyd” into the Google Machine and it will helpfully suggest “Brandon Lloyd locker room issues” and “Brandon Lloyd locker room cancer.” Ouch. Plenty had been written and said about Lloyd’s cost/benefit following his 74/911/4 slash line in 2012. Would you pay $3M for that? Bill Belichick’s answer was no. Factoring in Welker’s departure, many Pigskin Pundits and Bobbleheads assumed Lloyd would be back with the Pats at a more reasonable price tag but that hasn’t happened. Like most citizens of Patriots Nation, I can’t help wondering, what was the “behavior in the locker room and on the practice field” that has led to this divorce; what exactly are the irreconcilable differences involved? Seen through the prism of Hernandez and Dennard, it would have to involve something other than say a penchant for giving his teammates wet willies or blasting the locker room with German opera. This, apparently, isn’t simply a matter of Lloyd being quirky. I don’t recall this being an element of Lloyd’s narrative when he signed with the Patriots but it is noteworthy that none of the other receiver-needy teams in the NFL has made Lloyd an offer.

Would I be shocked if the Patriots sign Lloyd at some point during training camp?

No.

Do I think it’s going to happen?

No. Remember; this is bigger than wet willies and German opera.

It’s still July but things are starting to happen. The Pats just released WR Donald Brown and signed two rookie pass catchers – Perez Ashford and Quentin Sims – the Patriots Blog on ESPN described as long shots to make the final 53. It’s easy to fall into the trap of thinking Brown’s release indicates the New England coaches have confidence in the youngsters they have on the roster but good management decisions rarely include wishful thinking. Having said that, I think it’s fair to say the Patriots believe they have better options than Brown at WR (and special teams) and as noted on the Patriots Blog, the coaches are already thinking about training camp reps.

For the moment, I’d project the Pats’ top three receivers to be Danny Amendola, Michael Jenkins and Julian Edelman. It’s hardly a triumvirate that will strike fear in the hearts of most defensive coordinators in the NFL but Amendola and Edelman are playmakers and Jenkins will likely have the best year of his career (which admittedly isn’t setting the bar terribly high) with Brady under center. Still, Tom Terrific is going to need one of the youngsters to step up.

Aaron Dobson and Josh Boyce have the cachet and expectations that come with being early round draft picks. Despite the uneven performance in OTA’s, Dobson, the 6’ 3” rookie from Marshall is still being counted on to push for a starting role in 2013. Boyce on the other hand, hasn’t even had a chance to be disappointing as he’s recovering from a foot injury and did not participate in OTA’s. Based on college highlights, I wouldn’t be surprised if Boyce had the better pro career overall but thinking of the here and now I’d say it’s safe to say Patriots Nation is counting on seeing a combined 80/900/6 slash line for Dobson and Boyce. And yes, that would effectively replace Lloyd’s production (and a little more).

New England also has a collection of intriguing receiving prospects heading into training camp, any one of whom might become that out of nowhere guy who has the Patriots’ store scrambling to handle the sudden spike in jersey orders after an 8 catch, 100 yards receiving game in September…

Kenbrell Thompkins impressed in OTA’s. He’s 6’ 1” and played his college ball at Cincinnati. Based on his back story, I don’t think he’ll have a problem going over the middle against NFL defenses. Hard not to pull for a guy like this even if it means the inevitable Chris Connelly tear-jerker on some November Sunday morning pre-game show.

Kamar Aiken’s first two years in the NFL have been spent largely on practice squads. He has good size at 6’ 2” and intriguing speed with a 4.45 forty but has yet to record a regular season catch. With the influx of similarly sized wideouts, Aiken’s average NFL career window might be closing.

Lavelle Hawkins was cut by the Tennessee Titans after five unimpressive years. At first glance, he would seem to be little more than a depth option in the slot (not a bad idea given Amendola’s and Edelman’s injury history). At second glance, he still looks like little more than a depth option in the slot.

Mark Harrison is a big kid at 6’ 3” and 235 pounds, an undrafted free agent out of (wait for it) Rutgers. He has good speed, with a 4.46 forty on his curriculum vitae. He was spectacular as a sophomore, averaging 18.8 yards per catch with 9 TDs but didn’t come close to those numbers his junior or senior seasons. Still, I couldn’t help noticing that Harrison is about the same size as Aaron Hernandez and a tenth of a second faster.

Perez Ashford isn’t very tall and he isn’t very fast and the Patriots aren’t exactly famous for developing wide receivers. He must have a terrific three-cone drill time.

Quentin Sims had a great senior year at Tennessee-Martin, with an 86/1092/16 slash line. He stands 6’ 3” tall (I’m sensing a trend) with decent speed having logged a 4.5 forty. 

While Thompkins, Harrison and Sims are bringing the pre-camp intrigue, they are also clearly long shots. Then again, that’s true of the vast majority of players in the NFL. For every Peyton Manning there’s a Ryan Leaf. Tom Brady was a 6^th round pick, Kurt Warner got his start in the Arena League and Johnny Unitas was signed as a street free agent. Wayne Chrebet and Wes Welker went undrafted.

So, you’re telling me there’s a chance?

Count me as one of those who believe the Patriots offense will lean on one of the best running games in the NFL in 2013 but I think it’s a decision borne of strategic advantage more than a matter of expedience. NFL offenses are built to throw the football and NFL defenses are built to stop the pass. We’ll see more games like the first Buffalo game last year when New England rushed for nearly 250 yards. Brady’s average game in 2012 was 25/40/302/2 with an INT every other game. Would we be that unhappy with his 2010 MVP slash line of 20/31/244/2 and just 4 INT for the season?

I'm good with it.