Net Present Value

This is shaping up as one of those drafts that could look really, really bad three years from now, depending on some admittedly unpredictable variables. It could also look pretty good.

The Patriots traded out of the first round for a treasure trove of mid round picks in a draft that was supposed to have a lot of personality even if it was a bit homely. Good dancers. Patriots Nation noted the 29^th pick was spent on wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson, for whom great and/or crazy things are predicted. (He could’ve been our Dez Bryant!) We spent the day Friday reassuring each other. We’ll still get a wide receiver – plenty of those – or a cornerback – plenty of those – or help with the pass rush – plenty of those but did anyone realize that plenty of pass rushers included DE/OLB Jamie Collins of Southern Mississippi? ESPN.com didn’t even post a link for his name when the pick was first announced. He was so obscure as to be undocumented. (What’s his three cone drill speed?) Not that 10 sacks and 4 forced fumbles don’t sound good. Is Southern Miss in the SEC? No?

That was asking too much.

I checked YouTube for highlights. Yes! [NSFW]

Four years from now, will we be asking if Cordarelle Patterson deserves his Pro Bowl nod? Will we talk about super freak Margus Hunt and cornerback Jamar Taylor (the players taken immediately after Collins) as the class of that year’s free agency? Probably not. But if we are and Jamie Collins is out of the league it won’t be safe to go anywhere near a Patriots-centric sports blog’s comments section. Patriots’ fans love to lament the horrible picks of drafts past. One can only imagine the spit-garbled invective on sports radio.

It’s also possible that Jamie Collins will turn into the player the Dolphins traded up to the #3 spot to take Dion Jordan.

Have the Patriots drafted badly at the wide receiver position since 2002? Yes. But if this was some gap in Bill Belichick’s otherwise encyclopedic knowledge of football, how did he spot Wes Welker?

A dispassionate view (or rationalization) of Patriots recent draft history with wide receivers (just ten picks total and three of those in the 7^th round) is that it’s a small data sample.

A small data sample that now includes Aaron Dobson out of Marshall, taken with pick #59. He’s big and fast. (Can we just stop right there?) It’s a given the “limited tree” he ran in college is a yellow flag – at least – for Patriots’ fans who’ve already seen Joey Galloway, Brandon Tate and Ochocinco fail the midterm.

Did I mention he’s big and fast?

With pick #83 the Patriots take Rutgers CB Logan Ryan. I am not surprised when I read on ESPN.com that Ryan is “considered a special teams standout.” Ryan looks like the classic developmental picks. He’ll play on kicking teams right away, work on his game as a DB and serve as a cheap insurance policy if the Aqib Talib affair ends badly.

Sadly, it was a veritable who’s who of mock draft possible Patriots preceding the Ryan pick; wide receivers Keenan Allen and Markus Wheaton, D-linemen Damontre Moore and Johnathan Jenkins came off the board at picks #76, #79, #81 and #82.

At #91, the Patriots take Rutgers (again!) safety Duron Harmon. He is so far off the radar that there is literally no information on him. He’s got a “highlight” reel on YouTube where he gets burned for two (or is it three?) touchdown passes.

With their 4^th round pick, the Patriots take speed merchant Josh Boyce, a wide receiver from TCU who ran a 4.38 on a bad wheel at the combine. Speed. Merchant.

Could Belichick and the Patriots have gotten it right with Dobson and Boyce? We won’t know for sure for a while, perhaps not till the 2015 season. But… What if the Patriots have gotten it right with Dobson Boyce? What if they’re Reggie Wayne and Michael Crabtree? Or Anquan Bolden and Michael Crabtree? (I clearly hope Michael Crabtree represents the worst case scenario of all the best case scenarios.) What if these guys are both good for 40+ catches in 2013? What if Dobson and Boyce going deep means Gronkowski and Hernandez are open underneath and Vereen is roaming free out of the backfield giving Brady a Pu Pu platter of receiving choices?

The Patriots gave up one 7^th round pick and prodigal track star Jeff Demps to the Buccaneers for troubled man-child – troubled large fast man-child – LeGarrette Blount. Blount has a history of punching it up with teammates. He doesn’t play well with others. When his anger can be focused on carrying a football off right tackle, however, he’s Corey Dillonesque. Big. Faster than you think.

If only Blount wasn’t insane.

Too crazy for football?

That’s crazy.

Is it worth a 7^th round pick that Blount will keep out of trouble in his contract year? Yeah. Maybe so. Think of how much better the defense will look if the Patriots can run out the clock in the 4^th quarter. I think they’re good with Ridley and Vereen but could it hurt to have 250 lbs. of Incredible Hulk-type rage rolling full speed behind Sebastian Vollmer and a pulling Logan Mankins with Rob Gronkowski and Jake Ballard sealing the edge?

I wouldn’t mind seeing that. 

I could also be happy watching Brandon Bolden in that role.

The Patriots also drafted another troubled man-child in Michael Buchanan, DE/OLB from Illinois. Buchanan has the measurables for the elephant position (how long before we find the next Willie McGinest – could it be Chandler Jones?). Rangy, strong, fast. Situational player on defense? I read that Buchanan had a 3^rd/4^th round grade so picking him up in the 7^th round is (wait for it) good value. If he realizes his potential as a Patriot, New England will have bookend defensive ends in Buchanan and Chandler Jones that could spend the next four years terrorizing AFC East quarterbacks.

The Patriots last pick was used on another Rutgers defender, ILB Steve Beauharnais. Ooh! He had the fastest three cone drill time at the combine for his position! For a 7^th round draft pick (good value!) he has quite the compelling highlight reel. It’s full of interceptions, sacks and inspirational leadership moments.

Understanding that highlight reels rarely include that moment when you got faked out of your jock but I must say that I’m intrigued by the 2013 Patriots’ draft. They’ve added depth and camp competition at wide receiver with legitimate X talent in both Dobson and Boyce. They also made moves to improve their pass defense, putting check marks next to pass rush, cover linebackers and DB depth.

But there’s more!

As David Letterman once observed, there is no off position on the genius switch. To that point, we give you undrafted free agent T.J. Moe, slot receiver from Missouri. A QB in high school, he brings athleticism and smarts to the position. He scored well at the combine in strength and quickness (6.53 in the three cone drill!). He looks a lot like a stronger version of Julian Edelman. (Cole Beasley?) It remains to be seen if he will ever draw comparisons to another undrafted free agent slot receiver you may be familiar with but this guy sure looks like a Mad Dr. Belichick lab experiment (who cares about the 40-yard dash when all the routes you run are 7-15 yards down field?).

Besides, who doesn’t want to see those headlines in the Globe… “Moe! Moe! Moe!”

Apropos of nothing more than the random nature of life

I heard this song the other day and it reminded me of just how great Joan Osborne is…