Living the Dream

Injuries will have an impact. Replacement refs will blow a call. Prima donnas will melt down. The NFL celebrates parity and I’m sure Roger Goodell had a party in his pants when a 9-7-0 team won the Super Bowl. What happens at the dance is unpredictable but who goes to the dance – the starting QB and the head cheerleader, the nerd who secretly has the dope dance moves and his ugly duckling girlfriend who turns out to be Emma Stone – isn’t that hard to predict, is it?

 

Who’s on your short list? Let’s break it down.

In the AFC, I’ve got the Patriots, Ravens, Texans and Broncos taking divisional titles with the Bengals and Chiefs in the wild card spots. That’s right, Jets, Bills, Steelers and Chargers; thanks for playing!

Picking the divisional winners in the AFC is actually pretty easy. The AFC Champion Patriots have improved. The Texans have no credible threat in the AFC South and the Broncos have a reconstructed and highly motivated Peyton Manning.  Losing Terrell Suggs will hurt the Ravens but after learning about Ben Roethlisberger’s partially torn rotator cuff I’m officially off the Steelers’ band wagon to the point where I’m ceding Pittsburgh’s annual playoff spot to the Bengals. Dissing the Jets and Bills may be wishful thinking on my part but I think a healthy roster and the steady hand of Romeo Crennel will take the Chiefs to an opening round loss in the playoffs. As for the Chargers, two words: Norv Turner.

Okay, dissing Norv Turner has reached the point where it feels like kicking a puppy. It’s not Turner’s fault that Chargers management, in the face of all evidence to the contrary, decided to bring him back for another season as HC of the SD.

If any team is going to make me look bad it’s going to be the Jets. The glass half full? New offensive coordinator Tony Sparano and Tim Tebow were made for each other. The glass half empty? You did see that playoff game between the Broncos and the Patriots last year didn’t you? Tebow is a unique talent but there is now plenty of tape to study, both on Tebow and of course and even more so Sparano’s wild cat offense. Also, the more Tebow plays the less mercurial wide receiver Santonio Holmes sees the football. In the movie, at the end of Act 2, Tebow and Holmes would get into a locker room fight. Tebow would take some early damage but the fight would end with Holmes on his back and Tebow extending a hand to help him back up. From that moment on, Tebow and Holmes would be BFF – Best Football Friends – and the Jets would charge into the playoffs on their way to tearful man hugs on the big stage in New Orleans.

As observed on these pages many times before, real life isn’t a movie. It seems far more likely the Jets locker room splits into Team Sanchez and Team Tebow, making the inevitable players only meeting after the J-E-T-S fall to 2-6-0 just a bit awkward.

The NFC is a tougher call than the AFC. Packers, Saints and 49ers look good, of course, but if I was a gambler, I’d be staying away from the NFC East. I’m going to take the Eagles but I can’t say I feel good about it. I’ll take the Bears and Falcons in the wild card spots.

The Giants could certainly compete for the division. After all, they did win it all last year. Still, winning a division with a 9-7-0 mark does require some cooperation from the other teams in your division. The NYG will play a regular season schedule that features the Saints (a team on a mission) and the 49ers and Packers (teams out for revenge). They were swept by Washington last year. There really isn’t a team in the NFC East that would totally shock me. All four teams have a credible QB (Vick, Manning, Romo and I’m giving RG III the benefit of the doubt) but I still think Philly has the best overall talent.

Only a season-ending injury to Aaron Rodgers can keep the Packers from taking home the NFC North. The Saints, like the Packers, are looking for redemption but they will need to secure home field if they’re going to host the Super Bowl. I can’t see the Saints beating the Packers outdoors in January.

As for the 49ers, HC Jim Harbaugh is 10% crazier, as is the roster, with the addition of WR Randy Moss. We’re all looking forward to Randy’s HOF induction speech, aren’t we? Anyway, if Alex Smith can find Moss downfield off play-action, the Niners are a mortal lock for an otherwise mediocre NFC West. Actually, even if Randy delivers an “I’m out” post-game presser after getting shut out in the season opener the Niners are a mortal lock for an otherwise mediocre NFC West.

I feel a little crazy betting on Jay Cutler and Lovie Smith but maybe two football negatives (Cutler plus future Cymbalta spokesman Brandon Marshall) make a football positive.

Yeah. That’s what I got.

I feel a little uneasy going with the Falcons who have consistently looked better on paper than they have on the field the last few years. It just feels like this is the year Matty Ice breaks through with a playoff win. It better be because next year feels like the year Cam Newton and Carolina break through with a playoff spot.

The Lions have had too many off-season arrests for me to feel good about them on the field. These are neither mature nor disciplined individuals. When the game is on the line, I think we can count on one of them doing something stupid.

Long time readers know with the picks above I can’t make my annual Patriots 35, Cowboys 10 Super Bowl prediction as I don’t have America’s Ex-Girlfriend making the playoffs. It’s time to move on. This year’s insanely early or just plain insane Super Bowl prediction is Patriots 45, Packers 35. Remember, you heard it here first.

Unless it winds up being Eagles 27, Broncos 21.