Sometimes Knowing Doesn't Make a Difference

So now we know what should've been obvious all along. Tom Brady wanted to sign with the San Francisco 49ers, the team of his childhood hero, playing in a stadium close to his parents. By extension, we also know who the mofo is that Brady referred to in The Shop. Jimmy GQ. 

This from yet another tease from the Seth Wickersham book, "It's Better To Be Feared," which doesn't officially drop until October 12th, but which I feel like I've already read. In the Bleacher Report post linked above, it notes the decision by the 49ers to stick with Jimmy Garoppolo and take a hard pass on Thomas Edward Patrick Brady, Jr., aka, The GOAT, "wasn't a totally unreasonable assessment."

To which, I say, "You cannot be serious!"

In grasping at straws/looking for reverse jinx material ahead of "The Return," I decided to look up Tom Brady's record following a loss. Unsurprisingly, it turns out that he wins at approximately the same incredible, improbable, historic rate following a loss as he does following a win, right around 77% of the time. The only two quarterbacks with better regular season winning percentages - Otto Graham and Daryl Lamonica - played in far fewer games (57 and 66, respectively). We're not looking at a small data sample here. Brady has started 302 regular season games and won 232.

In the postseason, when it is exponentially more difficult to win given the level of competition, Brady still wins nearly 76% of the time. The next closest active player - with an arbitrary cutoff of 10 starts in the playoffs - is Joe Flacco at 67%. Aaron Rodgers has won 55% of his playoff games. Russell Wilson has won 56%. Patrick Mahomes has only 8 playoff games on his resume so far, with a 75% win rate; the two losses coming at the hands of - say it with me - Tom Brady.

Brady has won more playoff games (34) than Joe Montana, who owns a 70% winning percentage, has played in (23). Again, not a small data sample. Brady has played in what amounts to two full seasons in the playoffs alone. Even in road games during the playoffs, Brady wins 73% of the time.

The point, obviously, is that Tom Brady wins football games, and I seem to remember somebody saying once that's the reason you play the game.

But you knew that.

So, that "wasn't a totally unreasonable assessment" on the part of the 49ers brain trust? Right. Good braining, guys. 

Okay. 

Let me add a corollary to the "Never bet against Tom Brady" rule.

Never give Tom Brady a chance to make you look stupid.

Because he will, three times out of four.