Optimistic

Was it just a few weeks ago that we all thought the Patriots Dynasty was ending, right before our very eyes? Trey Flowers and Trent Brown lost to free agency along with key contributors to their 6th Super Bowl win like Duane Allen and Cordarrelle Patterson. Gronk retired. Brian Flores and half the New England coaching staff took their talents to South Beach.

Now? There are plenty of reasons to feel good about the upcoming 2019 season.

I won't bury the lede. As long as New England has Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, the good citizens of Patriots Nation should feel optimistic.

I've got a few more reasons, though, to believe there could be yet one more awkward moment involving Roger Goodell and the Patriots (assuming Robert Kraft has finished his community service hours by then, of course).

In no particular order:

The Vets Who Want To Go Out Winners

Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung, Matthew Slater, Jason McCourty, Marcus Cannon, offseason additions Michael Bennett ahd Demaryius Thomas, and returning D-line stalwart Lawrence Guy are all in their 30s. Devin McCourty briefly entertained the notion of retirement after SB53 and you have to think he wasn't the only one. It seems unlikely all of the players listed above will be playing beyond the 2019 season and if they do it would likely be somewhere outside the 617.

It's bittersweet to consider the pigskin mortality of Patriots stalwarts like D-Mac, Chung, and Slater. I hate myself just a little in letting myself consider it, even as I'm spinning it into a storybook ending, capping their careers with back-to-back Lombardi Trophies. Hey, who doesn't love a Hollywood ending?

Late additions including venerable TE Ben Watson, WR Dontrelle Inman, and Jamie Collins provide depth and mentoring for their position groups. It would truly be storybook endings for Watson and Collins, who began their professional careers with the Pats (and yes, Ben, that was a touchback not to mention one of the greatest efforts I've ever witnessed by an athlete in any sport) and both could finish their careers in New England by kissing the Lombardi Trophy. Inman could become the latest in a long line of free agents who cash in after rejuvenating their careers in Foxborough. I'm good with the Chris Hogan comps for Inman.

The Kids Are Alright

Something like 6 or 7 of the Patriots 2018 draft class will be redshirt freshman in 2019, along with the 10 picks from the 2019 draft and the 10 undrafted free agents signed after the draft.

2018 produced starters RB Sony Michel and DB J.C. Jackson and special teams/sub-package DB Keion Crossen. We saw, if briefly, the talent LB Ja'Whaun Bentley. Duke Dawson made the roster but couldn't get on the field. As it stands today, the Pats are counting on OT Isaiah Wynn to start on Brady's blind side. Assuming Wynn comes back from his Achilles injury and plays to his draft position/college film expectations and Bentley is as good as our memory serves, the 2018 draft class could represent with five players starting or playing significant minutes in 2019.

Add to that the potential starters/rotational contributors in the 2019 class - N'Keal Harry, Joejuan Williams, Chase Winovich, Damien Harris, Yodny Cajuste - and it starts to look like Bill Belichick has reloaded the New England roster for another deep playoff run. And that's without even considering the potential of other youngsters like TE Ryan Izzo and Andrew Beck, WR Braxton Berrios, DB Ken Webster, LB Terez Hall, S Malik Grant, DL Byron Cowart, and pick your personal favorite UDFA WR (Ryan Davis, Jakobi Meyers).

Not all of these guys are headed for Canton, of course, but finding new talent in the team building process is a volume business. The Patriots have 44 players on their 90-man roster who are rookies or entering just their second season in the NFL.

Disruptive Innovation

More colloquially known as "zigging when everyone else zags," Bill Belichick has long taken advantage of market inefficiencies in the NFL.

Everyone is playing a 4-3 defense?

I'll play 3-4 and have all the best nose tackles and give opposing offensive coordinators and offensive linemen a once a year game planning challenge. Until everyone else starts playing a 3-4. Then I'll switch back to a 4-3.

Every other team in the league is looking at Pat Mahomes in Kansas City and Jared Goff in Los Angeles as the blueprint for the NFL of the Future?

I'll take advantage of the defenses built to stop pass-wacky offenses with their smaller, pass-rushing D-Linemen and their cover-first/can't tackle DBs by going with a Power-I rushing attack that dominates the line of scrimmage and time of possession.

The Patriots have long valued blocking ability in their wide receivers. I'm picturing the Pats going 4-wide and running the football, taking advantage of all those big bodied wideouts blocking downfield to spring Sony Michel, James White, Rex Burkhead, and Damien Harris for big gains. Split James Develin out then bring him in motion back to the formation to seal the edge.

Run when they think you're going to pass. Pass when they think you're going to run. Sometimes it's just that simple. Simple but not easy. The Patriots may make the chameleon-like nature of their offensive and defensive schemes look easy but if it was, everyone would be doing it.

Other teams are lucky to do just one thing well, which of course, gives Belichick that one thing he will take away from you.

Dante's Divine O-Line

Of course, if you're going to run the ball effectively, it's a good idea to have the best offensive line coach in the NFL. Dante Scarnecchia will start with a solid core inside (Joe Thuney, David Andrews, Shaq Mason) but certainly has some work cut out for him with injury risks Isaiah Wynn and Marcus Cannon the assumed starters at tackle. He has new undergrads in 2019 draft picks Cajuste and Hjalte Froholdt (not to mention the enigmas that are Tyree St. Louis, Cedrick Lang, and Dan Skipper) as well as post-grad candidates Ted Karras, Cole Croston, and Brian Schwenke.

The good citizens of Patriots Nation should feel optimistic about the offensive line as long as Scarnecchia is their coach. I feel even better with the addition of veteran insurance policy Jared Veldheer. Always good to have a Plan B. And a mentor for Wynn and Cajuste.

You Can't Replace Gronk So Don't Try

The Patriots were never going to get T.J. Hockenson in the draft and clearly didn't like any of the other options available to them.

New England did pick up free agent Austin Seferian-Jenkins and I think he'll have a career year in the Patriots offense. I wouldn't sleep on Ben Watson, either. Redshirt frosh TE Ryan Izzo and veteran Matt LaCosse could be a two-way option, as the 3rd TE. Given the assumption New England would like to lead the NFL in rushing offense in 2019, I'd think Belichick will place a premium on blocking so even UDFA Andrew Beck has a shot at the Final 53.

I wondered before the draft if Belichick was happier with what he had on the roster better than the pigskin pundits and bobbleheads were. He knew he couldn't replace Gronk because Gronk is sui generis. From the moment Gronkowski announced his retirement, it should've been obvious and inevitable the Patriots offense was going to change. The tight end position is important in the Patriots offensive scheme but Gronk clearly affected usage. Over his career, Gronk averaged 7 targets per game or on a per season basis, 110 targets. Those are wide receiver type numbers. That's not happening for Seferian-Jenkins in 2019. Or Ben Watson. That won't happen even if New England trades for Kyle Rudolph.

Quick Aside: That trade scenario just ain't gonna happen but as wishful thinking goes, I totally get it. It's hard not to like Rudolph catching passes from Tom Brady.

Bill Knows Moneyball

Look, I'm going to miss him but there really is no replacing Gronk. But remember the basic idea of Moneyball; Belichick and McDaniels don't need to replace Gronk, they need to replace his production (72 targets, 47 receptions, 682 yards, 3 TD).

Enter N'Keal Harry. Now, I think the early projections for Harry in the New England offense are simply insane but when we have pigskin pundits and bobbleheads putting out numbers like 55 receptions and 10 TDs, it's tempting to think those numbers are actually within the realm of possibility. (And if he averages the 14.6 YPA of his last season as a collegian, that's 803 yards.)

That would be awesome, of course. I'm not saying it won't happen, either. I am saying that Belichick gets the Moneyball concept of production vs. players when it comes to building a team.

The Pats offense was on the field for 1,052 snaps in the 2018 regular season. 574 passing attempts. 478 rushing attempts. Now, if I'm right that New England is going to be a run first team in 2019, those numbers are going to shift significantly. Let's say 550 rushing attempts, 500 passing attempts. That has an impact on replacement numbers in the passing game, of course, shifting expectations for attempts, yards, and TDs to the running game.

Given that assumption, Gronk's split of 47/682/3 is reasonably the ceiling for TE production for the Patriots in 2019.

Last year in Jacksonville, Seferian-Jenkins' injury-shortened season (with Blake Bortles as his QB) projected to 35/289/3. ASJ had his career best just two years ago with a 50/357/3 line for the Jets (film that no doubt influenced Belichick signing Seferian-Jenkins). And let's not forget ASJ is just 26-years old.

Last year in New Orleans, Ben Watson played in all 16 but started only 5 and posted a slash line of 34/400/2. He's just three years removed from a 74/825/6 line for the Saints. Much has been made of Watson's age but given the return from his brief retirement, it seems Watson believes he has a few gallons left in the tank. Watson can be an extra coach and mentor for Ryan Izzo (23), Andrew Beck (22), Matt LaCosse (26), and for Seferian-Jenkins, possibly unlocking the potential that made ASJ the 38th pick in the 2014 draft.

Without Gronk, and with the shift towards a power running game with big, outside the numbers wide receivers, TE becomes less of a primary target and more of a secondary, checkdown option. With 35/400/3 production from the position group the Patriots offense should be just fine. Anything more than that is jimmies on the sundae.

So, You're Telling Me There's A Chance?

The possible futures for the NFL in 2019 are manifold with subplots to delight and intrigue even the most casual of football fans. Consider the Cleveland Browns rising from the ashes of a long history of tragic losses and more recently of organizational incompetence, ascending to contender status behind Baker Mayfield, their folk hero QB. How about the next chapter in the Patrick Mahomes story, an inspirational YA novel that ends with tears of joy and a championship? Maybe you prefer the return to relevance of Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts. A generation of young QBs, all primed to stake their claim to greatness; Mahomes, Mayfield, Deshaun Watson, Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Dak Prescott, Lamar Jackson, Sam Darnold… The list literally goes on and on.

Is there a better story, though, than one more run for the Lombardi by these New England Patriots?

Yes, Tom Brady is too effing old. Brady will suit up with rookies this year who were born after he began his professional career. Or still in diapers. There are six 21-year olds currently on the 90-man roster and four of them stand a good chance of making the Final 53. There are twelve 22-year olds. Yes, I'm still dreaming of that SI cover around Week 8 of Brady surrounded by rookies and second-year pros with the caption, "The GOAT and His Kids."

The Patriots of Belichick and Brady are a statistical improbability. They've sustained success over 20 years in a sport that has been engineered to subvert sustained success. Belichick and Brady could have taken their curriculum vitae to Canton ten years ago but they just keep adding accomplishments and honors beyond the wildest of imaginings. If these Patriots were a movie, are we thinking Spielberg? Peter Jackson? Maybe those guys who directed Endgame? I think my personal choice would be Guillermo del Toro. This Patriots run has been nothing if not surreal.

What they've already accomplished is simply ridiculous. Perspective: When Odell Beckham, Jr. said he wanted to make the Cleveland Browns the next New England Patriots, he was quickly reminded that while the Browns look like a team that will make some noise this year, maybe even for a few years, they will not be the next Patriots because there will be no next Patriots!

This story can't end with a whimper; this 20-year run has created a cinematic universe that deserves an Avengers: Endgame level ending. One more movie, bigger than everything that's come before, full of heart, all about teamwork, family, friendship, sacrifice and ultimately, saving the planet.

Okay. They won't save the planet. But it would still be a blockbuster.