Well, the draft is over and everyone is sure their team, bolstered with youth and talent, is on it’s way to the Super Bowl. Well, except for Cleveland Browns’ fans. They know better.
Most fans believe their team did well in the draft if they recognize the names taken, names they heard in the run up to the draft. Players from Top 10 programs, Combine warriors. Mentions by Mel Kiper, Jr., Todd McShay and Mike Mayock. If you’ve heard their names it was a good pick. It’s something of a self-rationalizing system. For the most part, over the first 100 picks, it works. Sure, there are famous 1st round busts but the top talent in any field is fairly easy to identify. I remember reading an e-mail exchange between Malcolm Gladwell and Bill Simmons that Simmons posted on his site in which Gladwell posited an interesting point. While he had only a superficial knowledge of the sport of basketball, he could actually use that to his advantage and still be quite successful. He wouldn't be in a position to over-analyze, to over-think his draft strategy. All he knew was that schools like Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina, Kansas, etc. were really good college basketball schools so as an NBA GM, he would simply draft from those schools.
Think about that as you consider how many kids from Ohio State were drafted this year.
For Patriots’ fans, this draft was hauntingly familiar. Belichick has traded out of the 1st round often enough that the theft of New England’s 1st rounder so not drafting till the 50s or 60s wasn’t something we haven’t seen before. A strong emphasis on special teams, a safety you never heard of, a kid who wasn’t even on most draft boards and a couple of rock-headed offensive linemen. It almost wrote itself.
Let’s break it down…
R2 - Cyrus Jones, DB Alabama - I think the Jones pick has more to do with the return game than defense. Why is everyone so happy to kiss Logan Ryan goodbye? Jones returned 4 punts for TDs in his final year with the Crimson Tide. Can he play in the slot or even be the long-term replacement for Logan Ryan on the outside? Sure. Okay, maybe. In the near term, who cares? As long as he’s tipping the field with punt and kickoff returns, this will be a very, very good pick.
R3A - Joe Thuney, OL NC State - An offensive lineman who can play all five positions? Does it get any more Belichickian than that? Thuney also graded out as one of the best pass blockers in college last year. Yes, please. More on Thuney and the O-Line when we get to the Ted Karras pick.
R3B - Jacoby Brissett, QB NC State - A bit of a head-scratcher. A nod to the inevitable? The blueprint for future NFL quarterbacks is Russell Wilson: athletic, mobile, better throwing on the run than throwing from the pocket. A bittersweet reminder that Tom Brady will not play forever. Not to say Jacoby Brissett is the next Russell Wilson; he's probably something of a cross between Wilson and Brady (hopefully, the best of both). Belichick and the Patriots don’t always get it right but there’s nothing they do without intent.
Deflategate Aside: Brissett gives the Patriots a backup for Jimmy Garoppolo should Tom Brady’s “Bail Mary” fall incomplete. I was kind of looking forward to Julian Edelman stepping in as a run-first shotgun QB. That would be the definition of awesome for me. Wait. That could only happen if Jimmy G. gets injured. So, scratch that. I don’t want to see Brissett or Jules (or even Jimmy G.) take a single snap at QB in 2016.
R3C - Vincent Valentine, DT Nebraska - Pigskin pundits and bobbleheads are totally hating on this pick because of the lack of production in his final season with the Cornhuskers but his rare athleticism for a human of his mass and volume is certainly intriguing. As far as upside goes, I’ll be happy with a Ted Washington comp. Hands down the best name in the Patriots 2016 draft. He sounds like a professional wrestler who wears tights with images of hearts and lips on his tights. I can only hope he’s as badass as a pro wrestler named Vincent Valentine would be.
R4 - Malcolm Mitchell, WR Georgia - There were plenty of reports of New England’s interest in Mitchell heading into the draft so not too much of a surprise. Mitchell isn’t the prototypical WR1 and he’s a year removed from an ACL but his highlight reel is impressive (okay, it’s why it’s called a “highlight” reel) and he put up good numbers coming back from the knee injury while playing with bad quarterbacks against SEC defensive backs. The day after the draft it’s easy to believe Mitchell could be every bit as good as Antonio Brown. Hey, I can dream, can’t I? Would I settle for Emmanuel Sanders? Yes, yes I would.
R6A - Kamu Grugier-Hill, OLB Eastern Illinois - Maybe this guy first hit the Patriots’ radar when they were scouting Jimmy Garoppolo. Looks like a core special teamer who fits the hybrid safety/linebacker mold. If he makes the roster, look for him on the depth chart backing up Patrick Chung.
R6B - Ted Karras, OG Illinois - I’m guessing the Pats noticed Karras while scouting Illinois RB Jordan Howard (one of those running backs New England didn’t draft). Karras has NFL bloodlines (uncle Alex Karras) and looks like he was built out of granite Legos but after the Thuney pick, and with Shaq Mason, Tre Jackson and recently acquired Jonathan Cooper already on the roster, another offensive lineman? Here’s my thinking. Never play a drinking game where every time Bill Belichick says “compete” or “competitive.” The New England culture is a meritocracy based on performance. Belichick wants an environment on the practice field and in meetings where the players compete, where they are tested and succeed or fail, where they are given a chance to correct errors and improve or they don’t. Because that is what’s going to happen in games and it's how games are won. No player on the Patriots roster should ever get comfortable. Thuney, Karras, Mason, Jackson and Cooper will not play because of their salary or their draft status or what they did last year. They’ll compete for playing time and earn it based on performance. It’s not enough to simply add names to the roster. To get better, those players must be willing to compete; for the Patriots to win, competitiveness must become a habit. I won’t be surprised if Ted Karras is the starting right guard for the Patriots when the season starts. Okay, I also won’t be surprised if he isn’t.
R7 - Devin Lucien, WR Arizona State - Because why not? Intriguing speed. Decent size (at 6’ 2” he’s crazy tall for a NWE receiver). But there’s a long list of names ahead of his on the depth chart at WR (while Cyrus Jones and Joe Thuney are already slotted in their position group, Lucien and fellow WR draft pick Malcolm Mitchell have yet to see their names listed). Unless he can contribute on special teams as a gunner he seems like a long shot for the Final 53. Perhaps he might slip through waivers to the practice squad where he could play the tall WR on the scout team. I hear other teams have those.
I won’t even pretend to know anything at all about the undrafted free agents the Patriots have signed other than to say Malcolm Butler was one of those guys just two years ago so it’s worth paying some attention. History tells us an undrafted free agent is going to make the roster and maybe even make a play that wins a Super Bowl.
There are still trades to be made; still free agents available. The Patriots didn’t draft a running back so maybe they’re good with LeGarrette Blount and Dion Lewis. Or maybe they’ll sign Arian Foster. Who knows?
We’re not done. Like Chuck Norris, Bill Belichick doesn’t sleep; he waits.
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