No End In Sight

There was a brief moment last week when it seemed we might hear from Roger Goodell (FTG) on Tom Brady's appeal. Then it didn't happen. The latest consensus from the gridiron cognoscenti is the end of July.

Followed by Brady and the NFLPA taking Goodell to court.

 

The NFLPA leaking their five-point plan to take Goodell to the woodshed, pull down his pants and beat him with a stick until his genitals bleed has been connected to a supposition that the NFL has leaked the ruling on Brady's appeal to the NFLPA and that ruling will leave Brady with a suspension of some length.

It's also been supposed that negotiations have been going on between the NFL and Brady's team to find an outcome that won't lead to another high profile case in federal court with Roger Goodell on the witness stand, embarrassing himself and the league. Unfortunately, this isn't about getting it right (no matter how many times Goodell uses the I-word) and it's certainly not going to involve admitting they got it wrong. Case law, if you will, argues Brady should've been fined something on the order of $50-$100K for refusing to turn over his phone and the Patriots should've been sent a strongly worded memo regarding the proper protocols for handling game balls.

Given the unprecedented and draconian punishments involved (not to mention the slap on the wrist given the Jets after Woody Johnson openly and obviously tampering with Darrelle Revis) it's easy to succumb to the siren call of conspiracy. Count me among those that believe the league was and is out to get the New England Patriots. Nine AFC Championship games, six Super Bowl appearance and four wins over fourteen years – with a quarterback drafted in the 6th round – puts a dagger in the heart of parity, not to mention the hopes, dreams and ticket-buying habits of fans from Jacksonville to San Diego with a connecting flights in New York, Cincinnati, Indianapolis and Houston.

The league tried to distract the Patriots and Tom Brady, tried to hamstring their preparation for SB49 but it wasn't enough.

More would need to be done to keep New England from back-to-back Lombardi Trophies.

You can assume Goodell will reduce Brady's suspension to two or even one game because of the Greg Hardy ruling that reduced his suspension to four games but I'm not buying it. Optics-schmotics. I can easily see Goodell and Troy Vincent giving us the apples and oranges argument; Brady's four games aren't really the same as Hardy's four games because (all together now) it's about the I-word. Besides, Goodell promised the rest of the league a four-game head start, not a two-game or one-game head start. There's also been some chatter amongst pigskin pundits and bobbleheads that if Brady's suspension is reduced, the sanctions against the Patriots should similarly be reduced. 

How does Goodell make the down payment on the Wells Report without that $1 million check from Robert Kraft?

Given the assumption Brady and the NFLPA take their case to federal court even for a one-game suspension, Goodell might as well let the four-game suspension stand. The NFL's track record hasn't been good but there's a chance Brady and the NFLPA fail to win in court and Brady has to serve the suspension in November or December. That could be even more damaging to the Patriots' hopes of returning to the Super Bowl.

Given the obvious overreach in the NFL's sanctions against Brady and the Patriots, I find it hard to believe Brady and the NFLPA could lose. The clear and recent precedents in similar cases all work in Brady's favor.

When it's all said and done, what will the NFL have accomplished?

In the short run, they've thrown another log on the competitive fire that burns without surcease in Brady's heart.

There are obviously a lot of variables in play here, including the health of Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman, how quickly the revamped offensive line comes together and whether the defensive front seven can make us forget Darrelle Revis. There's no question, though, about Brady. The famously intense Tom Terrific will be turning it up to 11 this year.

The haters can smirk and make jokes about deflated footballs and even wonder out loud if Brady can play as well with properly inflated footballs. Well, if the 4th Quarter of Super Bowl XLIX is any indication, I'll take it.

Here's why small data samples are fun.

Brady's numbers from that final frame in SB49: 13 of 15 (87%), 124 yards, 2 TD.

Projecting those numbers to a full season: 832 of 960, 7,936 yards, 128 TD.

In case you're wondering, yes, those would all be records. Okay, you knew that.

How about we just go with the full game stats for Brady: 37 of 50 (74%), 328 yards, 4 TD.

Projecting those numbers to the full season: 592 of 800, 5,248 yards, 64 TD.

All records except for the yardage total.

Small data samples may be fun but they're famously not predictive. Josh McDaniels doesn't want Brady throwing the football 50 times a game and neither does Brady. New England – like most NFL offenses – prefer a balanced attack and I expect to see a heavy emphasis on the power running game for the Patriots in 2015. That will set up play action, of course, but I think we saw the blueprint for the upcoming season in SB49. Yes, the defensive lines in the AFC East are impressive but they will have to get to Tom Brady in 2.5 seconds or less if they hope to catch him with the ball still in his hand.

Ironically, the best thing Roger Goodell (FTG) could do for the rest of the NFL would be to vacate Brady's suspension and take that chip off Brady's shoulder.

It's probably too late for that.