Three Cones in Sub-7

You can't expect the Patriots to draft on the basis of need – at least not the narrow “Day 1 starter this year at the X position because we lost player Z to free agency” definition of need (and you know who I’m talking about). Look no farther than Bill Belichick’s first two picks in the 2014 draft; a defensive tackle coming off a second ACL tear unlikely to contribute in his rookie year and a QB of the Far, Far Away Future.

Still, we know – or have strong opinions about – what New England needs to make a run at back-to-back Lombardi Trophies…

 

I Believe in the Three Cone Drill

If you're a Patriots fan, you know about the three cone drill. There are metrics and there are metrics and then there's the three cone drill. It suits the fixed geometry of the game. Whether it's the chaotic violence of the line of scrimmage or the clutter of linebackers, safeties, tight ends and slot receivers in the short to intermediate zones, victory goes to the quickest more often than it goes to the biggest or fastest or tallest. Speed, strength and explosion are important, of course, but in the NFL it's quickness that wins.

As each of the Patriots draft choices are announced I will look up their draft profiles and the first thing I will check is their three cone drill time.

I'll also keep a stick count on how many of the Patriots picks were captains in college.

Draft Two or Three Offensive Linemen

First things first, it's my perception that when the NFL zigs, Bill Belichick zags. This is hardly an insight of earth-shattering proportions but it does set up the next paragraph.

With a few notable exceptions, NFL offenses are built to pass first, second, third and run only if they’re up by two scores in the 4th quarter. This is having a predictable impact on how NFL defenses are constructed, with an emphasis on pass-rushing defensive tackles, pass coverage linebackers and press cover cornerbacks. Given this and the echoes of past Patriots championships, I’m looking for New England to set a franchise record for rushing the football in 2015. That doesn’t mean I expect Belichick to draft a running back, even if Todd Gurley is available at #32. With LeGarrette Blount, Jonas Gray, Brandon Bolden, James White, Tyler Gaffney, Travaris Cadet and possibly Dion Lewis, the Patriots may lack an elite RB1 (though Gaffney is an intriguing projection) but there’s plenty of functional talent there.

What I hope we do see is multiple picks on the offensive line.

Looking over the mock drafts and the “Possible Patriots” posts, I’m gravitating to the Florida State offensive linemen – Cameron Erving, Tre Jackson, Josue Matias – because New England has former Seminole Brian Stork established as the long-term answer at center. I’m making an assumption Stork’s presence would help their transition to a starting role in the NFL. I’m also rolling with the Dante Scarnecchia bromance with FSU’s o-line coach Rick Trickett.

Crowd-sourcing this pick, I’d also be happy hearing A.J. Cann’s, Ali Marpet’s or Laken Thompson’s name called, too. Or an offensive tackle the Pats could convert to guard (as was the case with Logan Mankins). It could just as easily be someone I haven't heard of. If I look up his player profile and see that he's 6' 4" and 305+ pounds with a three cone time in the low 7s, a 3-year starter and a 2-year captain then yeah, I'll feel okay about it.

New England could still re-sign Dan Connolly and return all five starters from the Super Bowl, of course. They have some depth options in Marcus Cannon and Cameron Fleming, though neither has yet to show the ability to move inside to guard. Maybe Stefan Wisniewski agrees to sign with the Patriots and moves to one of the guard positions. Regardless, one of the best weapons Tom Brady could have would be a reliable running game. (And a clean pocket when he's throwing the ball.) Rushing the football would also help give the defense a longer break than Brady in assassin mode running the no-huddle passing attack and let’s face it, the 2015 defense may need all the rest it can get.

It’s all about the offensive line if we want to see Brady play at an elite level for the next three years.

If You're a Lion, You Feed on the Fear of the Herd

Okay, I said Belichick shouldn’t use is 1^st round pick on a running back but what if Gurley or Melvin Gordon is still on the board at the end of Day 1? What if a stud wide receiver has fallen to #32? Do you take a chance on Dorial Green-Beckham (who makes me think he could be the next Dez Bryant)? Reach for Devin Funchess (who still hasn't convinced me he's the next Anquan Boldin)? How about pothead edge rusher Randy Gregory or CB Marcus Peters and his rebellious inner child?

I think this is Trader Bill’s ideal scenario.

It's a long shot Belichick would take any of these red flagged prospects but the thing is, he could. The Patriots have a young, deep team. They're coming off a Super Bowl win. Belichick can roll the dice on any of these high risk/high reward prospects knowing he's playing with house money.

Belichick also knows there’s some GM out there who’s desperate to overpay for upside despite the risk.

Make him pay, Bill.

Make him pay.

Then turn those extra 2^nd and 3^rd round picks into big, athletic starting offensive linemen.

Don’t Draft a Wide Receiver Shorter Than 6’3”

I’m not sure the Pats should or need to use a draft pick on a wide receiver. Unless they trade way up they’ve got no shot at any of the elite receivers in this year’s draft, Amari Cooper, Kevin White, DeVante Parker, and Belichick hasn’t been particularly good at drafting wide receivers in any case. If he did trade up for Cooper, we'd all assume he will wind up as a bust at the NFL level, wouldn't we?

Still, rumors have the Patriots taking a wide receiver early in the draft, if not in the 1st round.

If the Patriots do draft a wide receiver, please, please, please do not draft a 5’ 9” slot receiver. I don’t care what the kid's 40 time was or if even if he had a sub-7 three cone drill. Okay, a sub-7 three cone time would get my attention. Still, I think we’re good with Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, Brandon Gibson and (maybe?) Josh Boyce in the slot.

I’m cautiously optimistic that either Aaron Dobson or Brian Tyms can put the long ball back in Tom Brady’s arsenal but I wouldn’t bet the mortgage on it. Maybe the Patriots should think about drafting Willie Cauley-Stein.

Buy Some Dominique Easley Insurance

The other side of the line of scrimmage should be also be priority, in part because Vince Wilfork is gone, Sealver Siliga is in a walking boot and we have to be guarded in our confidence regarding Dominique Easley’s bionic knees. The challenge here is the best defensive tackles will probably go in the top half of the draft and the rest of this year’s draft class all seem to have an injury history or attitude issues. Or both.

And let’s face it, Wilfork (unlike Dan Connolly) will be a hard act to follow.

You could argue that with Siliga, Easley, Alan Branch and Chris Jones the Patriots have a solid and flexible set of defensive tackles and you could further argue the Patriots are unlikely to find much better than what they already have given their draft position. You could also argue that Siliga and Easley have injury histories, Branch is old and Jones is better in small doses. So let's see how the 1st round falls. If a Top 5 defensive tackle improbably falls to #32, hand in the card. Failing that, the Patriots can look for developmental/small school options on Day 2 and 3 or wait for a veteran to be cut by another team during training camp.

Somebody or Something Moved the Island

I’m sure there are some who would argue that cornerback should be the Patriots top priority but as with offensive line and defensive tackle, even with Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner gone, the cupboard is hardly bare. And as noted above, my draft strategy is more about keeping the defense off the field than it is to turn them into the ’85 Bears with their 2015 draft. These are the Super Bowl champs, after all. Like defensive tackle, the Patriots have to hope a quality cornerback (Jalen Collins?) unexpectedly falls to them or falls far enough down the draft board that they’re willing to trade up.

Yes, I'm intrigued by UConn DB Byron Jones but his jump from a projected Day 3 pick to the mid to late 1st round based on his Combine performance has me Mike Mamula-level freaked out the Pats will use pick #32 on Jones.

Maybe I'm delusional when it comes to Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan; probably I'm delusional when it comes to Bradley Fletcher. Let's not forget Butler was an undrafted free agent.

Yeah.

Okay, I'll talk myself into Byron Jones (if it happens) as long as the Patriots come away with those big, athletic offensive linemen on Day 2 and 3.

Hey, Don't They Need a Linebacker, Too?

Maybe. The run at Rolando McClain would have you believe the Patriots think so but I wonder if that might've been more opportunity than needs based.

As with any of the other position groups on the New England roster, Belichick has depth and developmental opportunities at linebacker. Deontae Skinner, James Morris and Cameron Gordon are all relatively young players who could see meaningful snaps if Dont'a Hightower isn't fully recovered from off-season surgery.

Hightower and Jerod Mayo's injury-related status would seem to argue for reinforcements but with the depth they have on the roster, the Pats don't need to risk overdrafting at this position – or any other for that matter.

Best athlete available, anyone?

Yes, please.

In Bill We Trust

Belichick will probably trade pick #32 for more picks in this and/or next year's draft and yes, I will stay up all night waiting for that to happen. He'll draft players none of us have heard of from schools we didn't know existed. He'll draft players in the 2nd round the experts had 4th-6th round grades on. He'll draft players in the 3rd round even Mel Kiper, Jr. and Todd McShay have never heard of. A prospect fans are begging Belichick to take (Gurley, Green-Beckham, Jones, et al.) will be left on the board and taken just one or two picks later. Mike Reiss will author a post on ESPN.com noting the player Bill did draft will forever be compared to the player he didn't (for the fifth draft in a row). There will be plenty of opinion pieces written about how Bill Belichick the GM has once again let Bill Belichick the Head Coach down. That Belichick has been the architect of an unprecedented run of success in the salary cap era won't receive much consideration, if any.

Yeah, we've seen this movie before.

It has a great ending.

Can't wait to see it again.