The Face of the Franchise

Will the sexual assault suit filed against Jameis Winston affect his draft status?

Why is this even a question?

The NFL is a tricky business. Aaron Hernandez was great value in the 4th round until the risks that caused him to drop into the 4th round became an ugly, tragic reality. I'm not saying rape (and let's call it what it is) is as bad as murder but as red flags go, it's got to be worse than smoking pot and getting into a punch up with a bouncer at a night club. I'm not saying Jameis Winston is Darren Sharper, either. I am saying that the next time Winston is held accountable for his actions will be the first time he's held accountable for his actions. There wasn't a single thing Winston did in college that coach Jimbo Fisher didn't dismiss as the indiscretions of youth. He's a good kid! What was the harshest punishment suffered as a collegian? Benched for a half?

It's undeniable that Winston looks like an NFL quarterback. Then again, so did Ryan Leaf.

Winston may be a good kid – I suppose it's unfair to compare any young QB to Ryan Leaf – but given his off the field issues in college, it’s fair to think he's going to be a target for every punk and gold-digger in the greater metropolitan area of whatever city he winds up in. What 20-something with a million dollars in his hip pocket doesn't want to make it rain at a gentleman's club? Am I right? What could go wrong? Winston will wind up in dust ups with drunken dudes in University of Florida jerseys. He'll be surrounded by women determined to be his baby mama. TMZ is going to have a camera on this guy 24-7. The lawsuits may be frivolous but they will still need to be dealt with.

Standing in the center ring of the Famous Jameis circus, it's easy to forget Winston threw 18 interceptions in his final season of college ball; an indicator that his poor decision-making isn't limited to his off-field actions.

Okay, not to make too fine a point on it but if I were an NFL general manager, I wouldn't draft Winston. Certainly not with the 1st pick, maybe not in the 1st round. Not to say there aren't risks in taking Marcus Mariota but isn't Mariota's ceiling that of a bigger, stronger Russell Wilson?

Is there any video of Mariota shoplifting fresh seafood? No?

I don't know Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota. I haven't looked in their eyes and seen their souls. I haven't broken down film with them or broken down film of them. Both may turn out to be great pros. Both may be busts.

So what you're saying is, there's a chance?

Yeah, there's a chance. The 1st pick in the draft is a chance for a GM to turn the franchise around, setting it up for a decade of playoff appearances and one or two legitimate runs at the Super Bowl while you humbly note it's a team game as pigskin pundits and bobbleheads call you a gridiron genius.

If you draft the right guy.

If you don't, you just punched your ticket on the bullet train to football ignominy. Maybe an old friend will give you a gig as an assistant personnel man but your GM days are behind you. Your firing (and that of the head coach) will provide fans their only ray of hope in the dark days that follow drafting the next Ryan Leaf.

Hey. No pressure.

If I'm a fan of the Titans, Bears, Chargers, Browns or Eagles, I have to be hoping the Buccaneers take Winston with the #1 pick…

The Titans could take Mariota or they could let the Bears, Chargers, Browns and Eagles try to make an offer they can't refuse; players and/or picks that would help Tennessee build a deeper roster while Ken Whisenhunt plays quarterback whisperer to Zach Mettenberger.

Would the Titans take Jay Cutler off the Bears' hands with enough draft pick sweetener? That would have to be a whole lot of sugar. It's been a long time since Cutler played at Vanderbilt. Still, Cutler still has a big arm and if Whisenhunt thinks he can turn Mettenberger into Tom Brady 2.0, he has to believe he can harness Cutler's estimable if enigmatic skills. The longer I think of this scenario the crazier it seems.

Sorry Bears fans.

The hot rumor is that the Chargers would offer up Philip Rivers and picks get the #2 pick and take Mariota. This makes so much sense it can't possibly happen. Whisenhunt was the OC in San Diego for one of Rivers' best seasons as a pro and Rivers is a son of the South. Rivers competitive fire would have an immediate and positive impact in the Tennessee locker room. He would give Mettenberger a mentor and time to develop. I'm not sold on the inevitability of the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC South. With Rivers at QB the Titans have a chance to compete for playoff spot now and for the near future. So this makes some sense for the Titans but I'll admit I still don't understand why the Chargers would do this.

Other than thinking Mariota is going to become a bigger, stronger Russell Wilson.

The Browns have two 1st round picks and an organizational desire to move on from Johnny Manziel. And Brandon Weeden. And Brady Quinn. And Tim Couch. I'd guess it will take more than the two 2015 1st rounders but that's a nice place to start. My impression of the Titans is that they have plenty of needs so finding two starters regardless of position would certainly help. Given Cleveland's recent history at the quarterback position, Mariota has to be hoping this doesn't happen. If you don't believe in curses then you've probably never stolen a gypsy's wife and taunted him with pictures from Aruba on Instagram. Trust me. Curses are real.

Sorry Cleveland.

The Eagles remain an intriguing option because of the Chip Kelly/Oregon Ducks connection. Kelly has downplayed the possibility Philadelphia would pay the necessary freight to bring Mariota to the City of Brotherly Love. On the other hand, it's hard to deny that Mariota is the QB genetically engineered to run Chip Kelly's offense and Sam Bradford is not. Does Kelly have enough assets to make a move up to #2? I suppose that depends in part on the valuation of Bradford, who I think would have to be part of the deal. Why would the Titans take Bradford (especially after the chronically injured Jake Locker) as part of any deal with Philly if they actually believe Mettenberger is sort of Tom Brady? If they don't think Mettenberger is the man, why wouldn’t they just take Mariota?

As a football fan, I'd like to see this happen – Mariota running Kelly's offense in the NFL – but sadly it seems unlikely. Also, I'm setting the over/under on Bradford's next season-ending injury at Week 6.

Of course, there's still the chance the Buccaneers would take Mariota at #1. This lawsuit could be a deciding factor. It's been a while since Winston vs. Mariota was even a question but it’s clear Tampa Bay isn't going to miss their #1 pick opportunity to get a face of the franchise QB.

It's interesting Tampa Bay's public stance that Winston's name will be on the card they hand to Roger Goodell a week from this Thursday night hasn't provided anything close to the intrigue surrounding Mariota and the #2 pick. Is that because other GMs don't think there's anything they could offer for the #1 pick the Buccaneers would take (and they're not willing to mortgage their team's future for Famous Jameis) or is it because other GMs wouldn't take Winston even if they had the chance?

I'm trying to think of a college quarterback with Winston's off-field issues who went on to become an Andrew Luck and I'm coming up empty.