Easterlies

This is the year.

We’ve been hearing that for a few years now. And maybe it will be. You know, the year some team other than the Patriots wins the AFC East. Last year it was going to be the Dolphins. Remember that? Miami had spent big in free agency, winning the Mike Wallace sweepstakes, and Ryan Tannehill was going to become the first QB since Dan Marino that Dolphins’ fans could talk about without shaking their heads in disgust. Injuries, stupidity and a failure on management’s part to see that Tannehill and Wallace were a mismatch in skill sets proved too difficult to overcome. Instead of leading the league in TD passes, Tannehill led the league in sacks.

This year, it’s the Bills and the Jets with second year QBs and shiny new wide receivers lighting the candle of hope in the Bill Belichick’s Dungeon of Decade-Long Despair.

Is this the year?

 

Buffalo Bills

The Bills spent big to bring WR Sammy Watkins to Buffalo. If they’re smart, they’ll give him the locker right next to QB EJ Manuel. Manuel is not lacking for weapons on offense. Watkins joins last year’s rookie phenom Robert Woods at the receiver position, with C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson providing a solid one-two punch running the ball. The offensive line is solid and TE Scott Chandler was lusted after by Patriots fans before he re-signed with the Bills.

The defense is stout up front with standouts Mario Williams and Kiko Alonso. The secondary is sketchy and there’s still a gaping Jairus Byrd-shaped hole in centerfield but with the pressure the front seven can bring the Bills’ DBs are probably good enough.

The Bills have undeniably gotten better but ultimately their chances in 2014 come down to Manuel’s development. Buffalo’s brain trust must believe he’s ready to step up; mortgaging the future for Watkins only makes sense if the Two Doug’s (GM Whaley and HC Marrone) believe in Manuel as a franchise QB.

If I were a betting man, I’d bet the Bills will be missing that 2015 1^st round pick they gave up for Sammy Watson come this time next year.

The Essay Question: Is the Buffalo Bills franchise cursed?

They were good enough to get to four consecutive Super Bowls and came away losers every time. You want to feel sorry for Cleveland Browns fans? Get in line behind Buffalo Bills fans. The Bills haven’t sniffed the playoffs in this century, last making an appearance in 1999.

Don’t believe in curses? Yeah, well that’s why you’re missing the playoffs again this year, despite a 10-6-0 regular season record.

New York Jets

Rex Ryan is already talking smack. No, he isn’t promising a Super Bowl win but he is saying that teams “don’t want to play the Jets” in 2014. I’m not sure what that means. It’s not like teams get a choice of who they play. Besides, I’m not sure the Jets would make my Top 5 Teams I Don’t Want to Play (I’ll go with Seattle, San Francisco, Denver, New England, Green Bay). Jets GM John Idzik was criticized for his passive-aggressive approach to free agency but the NYJ did pretty well in the draft, highly rated safety Calvin “Potty Mouth” Pryor in the 1^st and Patriots Nation mock draft love object Jace Amaro in the 2^nd. It seems to me that every year the Jets draft a player linked to the Patriots and (I’m looking at you Vernon Gholston) it rarely ends well for the Jets. (Did you know Ras-I Dowling was on the Jets’ roster?) It seems unlikely Amaro will be a bust but he doesn’t look like a complement to big free agent signatory Eric Decker; Amaro seems like a taller version of Decker than anything else. Not that Tall and Taller is a bad idea at wide receiver. Decker and Amaro should help whoever starts at QB, as will Chris Johnson, if CJ2K has half an inch of tread left on his tires.

The Michael Vick signing is hardly a vote of confidence for second year incumbent Geno Smith. Neither QB leaves me feeling particularly confident. If Smith starts and struggles and he’s replaced by Vick who struggles (a likely scenario in my mind), then what? If Vick starts, destroying Smith’s confidence and likely putting him on Vince Young’s career path, and Vick struggles and Smith is then made the starter and he struggles, well, who is the 3^rd string QB on the Jets? Matt Simms? Do they go there? I’m going to set the over/under at Week 3 for a change in starting QB whoever the Week 1 starter is and Week 7 for the “then what?” moment.

The Jets defense will be credible at least and formidable at best as long as Rex Ryan is the head coach. I just don’t get what they’re doing on offense.

The Essay Question: Is Rex Ryan only good at stopping offenses (including his own)?

In homage to the game plans of the 1980s, Ryan is steadfast in his devotion to a run-first offense. Maybe this is supposed to surprise defenses built to stop the modern passing game. Maybe this strategy is supposed to grind clock and give his defense time to rest. Maybe this would make sense if Adrian Peterson was a Jet (not really, unless you think Vick/Smith is that much better than Christian Ponder/Matt Cassel). Okay, I’m out.

As a Patriots fan I can only say, Rex, thank you for being who you are. Never change.

Miami Dolphins

On paper, the Dolphins have rebuilt their disastrous offensive line through free agency and the draft but I still don’t like the Tannehill-Wallace combo in 2014, no matter how much more time Tannehill gets to throw. Tannehill’s strengths play to timing routes in the short to intermediate range. Wallace isn’t known for his route-running and his sole strength appears to be running the go route. Well, WR Brian Hartline should have another good year moving the chains, at least, as long as that revamped O-Line can keep Tannehill’s pants clean. Tannehill will also be working with a new offensive coordinator in his third year in the league and while there really wasn’t much to build on from 2013, Tannehill is still likely to take a half-step back as he learns a new system.

The defensive backfield is solid but the Dolphins will need to get a lot more out of last year’s #1 pick, Dion Jordon, and another Pro Bowl year out of Cameron Wake if they’re going to keep opponent’s offenses off the field and out of the end zone.

The Essay Question: How many problems can you fix in one off-season?

The Dolphins have a new offensive coordinator (as noted above) and a new offensive line coach but it seems from a couple of social media moments, it doesn’t appear the players have gotten it. There was a homophobic tweet from DB Don Jones when Michael Sam was drafted and center Mike Pouncey, who was implicated in the Richie Incognito/Jonathan Martin bullying scandal apparently did not get the memo. Both men were called to the principal’s office. Somehow I don’t think that will be enough.

New England Patriots

They have the best head coach and the best QB in the division. I could stop with Bill Belichick and Tom Brady but what’s the fun in that?

The Patriots added perhaps the best CB in the league in Darrelle Revis. Revis and fellow free agent Brandon Browner could provide a domino effect that helps solve the depth problem at safety by pushing promising second year DB Logan Ryan to the back end of the defense. Chandler Jones was Top 5 in sacks last year and continues to improve while second year linebacker Jamie Collins showed flashes of Pro Bowl promise in 2013. They addressed their most pressing need – interior offensive line – in the draft and will likely sign Dustin Keller for depth at TE after June 1.

Or maybe Belichick and Josh McDaniel have decided to drop the double TE in favor of a spread offense with four or five wide receivers on the field. Aaron Dobson, Danny Amendola, Julian Edelman, Jeremy Gallon and Brandon LaFell or Shane Vereen would give Brady plenty of options. In short yardage and goal line scenarios, New England could use a tackle-eligible at tight end.

When the NFL zigs, Bill Belichick zags.

I’d say only injuries could stop the Patriots but after last year (losing three starters on defense and two on offense) I’m not sure even that is true.

The Essay Question: Can Rob Gronkowski stay on the field in 2014?

I… I don’t want to talk about it.

Bold Predictions

1) New England Patriots – 14-2-0 (I’m already on record)

2) Buffalo Bills – 10-6-0 (but they miss the playoffs again)

3) New York Jets – 9-7-0 (because other teams do play them, anyway)

4) Miami Dolphins – 6-10-0 (still a lot of karma to work out)