Wednesday, May 7, 2014

Overthinking the Problem

By now I think I must’ve changed my mind about Jace Amaro somewhere in the low 90s. Is he a star waiting to happen? Is he just a poor mans Mike Evans? And I wonder why the pigskin cognoscenti seem to believe Bill Belichick would give up a 1st round pick for Ra’Shede Hageman, aka Albert Haynesworth 2.0? Do they all hate the Patriots that much? Is this wishful thinking on their part? God I hope Belichick trades down.

 
So, it’s a deep draft. Maybe you heard. The deepest in a decade. Hard to miss in a target-rich environment. Can you imagine if you’re the GM who doesn’t kill this draft? Man, that would be a junk punch from the big right hand of fate. And not just for you. Who’s the GM in Cleveland? I’ve got my money on him, whoever he is, because Cleveland is built on an Indian grave yard. Or there’s a gypsy curse involved somehow. Or a goat. Anyway, I can’t stop reading mock drafts. And thanks to Matt Miller’s NFL Draft Big Board 2014 on Bleacher Report, I’m going to put my wish list together one more time…

Unless something clinically insane happens in the 1st round and Teddy Bridgewater is available at #29 – What am I saying? Even if Bridgewater is available at #29, I’d rather give up a 7th round pick for Cornell’s 6’4” QB Jeff Mathews. Why? Because he’s 6’4” and because he was smart enough to go to Cornell. (I am troubled by the lack of the second t in Mathews but that’s probably just me.) Mathews will be cheap and the Patriots will have a year (with Ryan Mallet backing up Brady in 2014) to see if he’ll be ready when Brady retires.

If Johnny Manziel is available at #29, I would expect Belichick to get five picks in a trade.

You Need to Run the Football…
I’ve toyed with the possibility that Belichick would go widdershins and take RB Carlos Hyde at #29. A good running game only makes Tom Brady better. If Belichick does pick Hyde at #29 I will nod slowly and mutter “Bill Fuckin’ Belichick. Genius. Pigskin Genius.” I will imagine Hyde as a combination of Curtis Martin and Corey Dillon. My inner child will be weeping, of course, as he imagines Hyde as the next Trent Richardson.

But that’s not going to happen.

I like Stanford RB Tyler Gaffney with a Day 3 pick. He played in a pro set in college so he should have some blitz pick-up and pass catching skills. He’s a big boy, too, weighing in at 220 pounds.

Ninja Tom Needs More Throwing Stars…
Sadly even one as delusional as I cannot imagine a scenario in which Sammy Watkins or Mike Evans fall to #29. So I need to let that go. I do. I will. I’ve been telling myself the Patriots have plenty of talent on the roster with Edelman, Amendola, Dobson, Thompkins and Boyce. And they have more pressing needs. Still, after Devin McCourty’s endorsement of his fellow Rutgers alum WR Brandon Coleman I couldn’t help but take a look. The first thing I noticed was the fact that Coleman’s head wouldn’t be in the frame if he took a group picture with the current Patriots receiving corps. You can’t coach 6’6”. And, yeah, he’s tall. Okay, that and Rutgers is all I got.

I’d be pretty happy with Penn State WR Allen Robinson, even if he is only 6’2”. Robinson played for former Pats OC Bill O’Brien so there’s a good chance he won’t have a problem with the playbook. He does have tiny hands.

And yes, I’m still irrationally attached to Florida State wideout Kelvin Benjamin. Huge upside. Which is code for “bust potential.” As big as a tight end, Benjamin could be a better bet as the replacement for Aaron Hernandez than Jace Amaro.

Gronk Insurance…
I’m not as worried about replacing Aaron Hernandez (unless it’s with Kelvin Benjamin) as much as I’m worried about the lack of a credible backup for Rob Gronkowski. Admittedly, Gronk is sui generis; there’s no one exactly like him. But maybe the Patriots can find a player who’s somewhat like him.

I’d be happy with either Troy Niklas or C.J. Fiedorowicz but I don’t think Belichick will reach for either one of them at #29 and they may not be around at #60. Perhaps Belichick trades out of the 1st round (shocking, I know) and picks up one of these two early in the 2nd.

Taking Offense…
I’m hoping Ryan Wendell and Dan Connolly return to their 2012 form but based on their 2013 performance and Logan Mankins age, a G/C pick on Day 2 (if not Day 1) seems likely. Let’s face it, most of us have no idea who these guys are; I’ve got to take the word of the draft gurus on these guys. If pressed, I’m going to look for a kid from Wisconsin or an SEC school.

I’ve already said I’d be happy with the safe if unsexy pick of Xavier Su’a-Filo at #29 if Trader Bill stays put. I’d probably be even happier with David Yankey in the 2nd round.

Odds and Ends…
Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich need some help and recent free agent pickup Will Smith is hardly a long-term solution. 33 and coming off ACL surgery, Smith may not even be the short-term solution. I’m hoping Michael Buchanan can build on his uneven rookie season and put together some productive snaps in 2014 and maybe that happens. But if Kony Ealy or Dee Ford is available at #29 I hope I hear their name called by Roger Goodell. Ealy had the best 3-Cone Drill time – and Bill Belichick loves him some 3-Cone Drill. He may be a bit undersized for the prototypical Belichick DE but I look at Ford and can’t help but think of Terrell Suggs.

I’ve seen small school phenom Larry Webster (upside!) mocked to the Pats in the 7th round but part of me hopes New England picks up Stanford’s Ben Gardner as an undrafted free agent and Gardner makes the final 53 so every time I see him on the field I can say, “That’s Ben Gardner’s boat!

That’s probably just me.

Outliers…
Ryan Shazier, anyone? I suppose you could do a lot worse than the Big 10’s leading tackler. Seems to fit that hybrid Strong Safety/Linebacker spot that Belichick has been trying to fill – unsuccessfully – for years. Depending on the recommendation from FOB Urban Meyer and how the 1st round plays out, Shazier could go to the Pats at #29.


Meh.

Maybe.

I thought this was supposed to be a deep draft?



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