When your team goes completely off the board and drafts a kid that SI.com doesn’t even have a picture of, you tell yourself that genius is the exception, not the rule. Maybe they see something in this young man that other teams didn’t.
So, nobody ever heard of Tavon Wilson. Or they had and they didn’t think too much of him. He was the 24th rated safety in the draft. Yikes! On the other hand, he had visits with seven NFL teams leading up to the draft. The Patriots weren’t the only franchise interested in Tavon Wilson. Maybe there was a 6th or 7th round grade on this guy but New England didn’t have a 6th or 7th round pick. Certainly, it was an unexpected selection but do you really think the man who took Chandler Jones and Dont’a Hightower in the first round – Genius! – suddenly got stupid long enough to reach for a versatile, tackling machine from Illinois the Pigskin Pundits and Bobbleheads didn’t even have on their boards; an undrafted free agent at best?
Okay, time will tell if Tavon Wilson will become Rodney Harrison 2.0 or Chandler Jones can be the next Willie McGinest. If your glass is half full, you see that Wilson has prototypical safety size at 6’ 0” and 205lbs and he has decent coverage skills with experience at cornerback. If your glass is half empty you probably looked at the names drafted after Wilson with cynical interest. DT Kendall Reyes – linked to the Patriots in many mocks – was taken immediately after Wilson. DT Jerel Worthy and Devon Still, DE Vinny Curry, OLB Zack Brown and Lavonte David, OL Peter Konz and WR Reuben Randle were all names I’d seen on various mocks linked to the Patriots. Why not any one of those players?
Here’s the thing. In any business, if all you’re doing is what your competition is doing, you’re not playing to win; you’re playing not to lose. A pick like Tavon Wilson every now and then is a good sign. Maybe it doesn’t pay off. Not every draft pick does. But the Wilson pick (not to mention the Nate Ebner pick) is evidence that Belichick has a business plan customized for the New England Patriots, a plan that has resulted in 3 Lombardi Trophies, 5 Super Bowl appearances, 6 AFC Championship games and 10 playoff appearances in the last 12 years.
I hope Chandler Jones has the upside Mike Mayock seems to believe he has but I’m intrigued by the Dont’a Hightower pick. Aaron Hernandez was a “tweener” when he was drafted; little light for a tight-end, a little heavy for a wide receiver. Two years later, he’s all over the field, even running the ball on occasion. I think Hightower could be that same kind of “Swiss Army Knife” on defense. I think we’ll see him at ILB, DE and OLB depending on down and distance and I think he’ll do damage wherever he plays.
Okay, let’s see where we wound up, now that the draft dust has settled…
1.21 DE Chandler Jones – Specs out like Jason Pierre-Paul. Yes, please.
1.25 LB Dont’a Hightower – Four-year starter for Belichick buddy Nick Saban. Defensive captain his senior year on Alabama’s national championship team. OCD about finding the football. How many ways can you say “no brainer?”
2.48 DB Tavon Wilson – For those of you who were missing James Sanders. Actually, I’d be pretty happy if this guy gives us what Sanders did.
3.90 DE Jake Bequette – Solid production at Arkansas, playing in the NFL’s D-League (AKA the SEC). It should be an easier transition to the NFL when you’re lining up against guys you played in college. More pass rush? Check.
6.197 SP Nate Ebner – Everybody talks about how important special teams are but Bill Belichick actually does something about it! Are special teams like rugby? Well, I don’t think you can throw a forward pass on a kick return, so, there’s that I guess.
7.224 DB Alfonzo Dennard – Projected to the 2nd Round until he got tossed from the Capitol One Bowl game for tangling with South Carolina WR Alshon Jeffery, underwhelmed at the Senior Bowl and then later got into a punch up with a cop. Look for Dennard to line up at safety when he’s out on bail.
7.235 WR Jeremy Ebert – Why not? Played in a BCS conference and Northwestern is a brainiac school like Stanford, right? So this kid will be smart enough to learn the Patriots offense, right?
Connecting Dots
A few thoughts on the Patriots’ draft…
Defense Wins Championships
Remember Belichick’s track record drafting All-Pros (15 in the last 10 years) and imagine Jones, Hightower and Bequette on the field for Super Bowl XLVII along with current stalwarts Wilfork, Mayo, Spikes, McCourty and Chung. Let’s pencil them in for Super Bowl XLVII as well. (Hey, when you’re dreaming, dream big!) Brady and the offense will get the Patriots into the playoffs but now they look to have a defense that can close the deal.
Desperately Seeking Rodney
Hard to say who has been missed more, Willie McGinest, Tedy Bruschi, Richard Seymour, Mike Vrabel or Rodney Harrison. Patrick Chung was drafted to take on the Harrison role and while he has flashed promise that promise has not yet been fulfilled. Would Tavon Wilson, Alfonzo Dennard – or Devin McCourty – as his running mate let Chung become the next Rodney Harrison? Or should we see Wilson or Dennard (or McCourty) taking on that role?
Wes Welker is The Blueprint
We all hope Welker and the Patriots work things out, but Bill Belichick is not the most sentimental of men. With Julian Edelman and Anthony Gonzalez already on the roster as insurance, Belichick selects Edelman clone Jeremy Ebert in the 7th round. Ebert’s highlight reel looks positively Welkerian (I recommend turning down the soundtrack, but maybe that’s just me). Even if a multi-year deal is struck with Welker (fingers crossed!), the Patriots also need to think about the future.
Competitive Intelligence
Looking over the rest of the AFC East…
Buffalo continued the work they started on defense in free agency and took a potential shutdown corner in Stephon Gilmore with their 1st Round pick. With their next pick they took offensive lineman Cordy Glenn who played guard in college but may be needed at tackle by the Bills. I’m giving the Bills a slight edge over the Jets as the Pats’ biggest competition for the AFC East this year.
Miami made their big splash with QB Ryan Tannehill and backed that up with tackle Jonathan Martin, who spent his college years protecting Andrew Luck’s blind side. Their third pick, DE Olivier Vernon, was something of a head-scratcher (the Dolphins don’t have the luxury of drafting rugby players – or underperforming defensive linemen) but TE Michael Egnew (as a poor man’s Aaron Hernandez) and RB Lamar Miller look like they might be able to help. Whither Ryan Tannehill should the ‘Phins start 6-0-0 with Matt Moore?
New York rolled the dice on two boom or bust picks with enigmatic DE Quinton Coples and WR Stephen Hill, who may or may not know what the route tree is. But hey, the Jets’ locker room is the model of stability so I’m sure Coples will quickly fall in line and Santonio Holmes is the perfect guy to mentor a raw, young wide receiver, am I right?
The Patriots have already signed several undrafted free agents (OL Jeremiah Warren and Markus Zusevics, TE Brad Herman) with more to come. They still have free agent safety Yeremiah Bell on their radar, as well as free agent running backs Ryan Grant, Joseph Addai and Tim Hightower as options to bolster their young corps of running backs.
Looking over the Patriots’ depth chart (which clearly needs an update following Matt Light’s retirement), New England now has tremendous flexibility on the defensive front seven with an obvious emphasis on a more aggressive pass rush. It would be ideal if Andre Carter can come back and help mentor Jones and Bequette. It’s a deep team across the board. Again this year, I think the Patriots will have a hard time sneaking some of their young prospects onto the practice squad. Expect other teams to claim those players, knowing that 2nd and 3rd string players on New England’s roster might very well be starters on theirs.
As problems go, a good one to have.
The Opposite of Genius
So, Washington mortgage’s its draft for QB of the Future Robert Griffin III and takes QB Kirk Cousins with their third pick, a 4th Rounder. (For a bit of draft wonkery, one of Washington’s needs was offensive tackle and solid prospect Bobbie Massey was still on the board when Cousins was taken and they already had a serviceable backup for RG III in Rex Grossman.) Cousins was a “value pick” certainly but hardly a priority and it creates several possible futures including a zombie QB apocalypse (unlikely to be sure but it wasn’t even a possibility before they drafted Cousins).
Leading up to the draft, like every other prospect, Pigskin Pundits and Bobbleheads poked a few holes in RG III’s game. He was selfish (I’m still not sure what that meant). More importantly, it was noted that RG III was not reading defenses; his coaches on the sidelines would look at the defense and signal in calls. In not so many words, it was being argued that Griffin was not a great quarterback; he was merely a great athlete. If that sounds familiar it’s because it’s the criticism that has been leveled against every black quarterback prospect in the draft since there’s been an NFL draft.
Zombie QB Apocalypse
So, what if RG III struggles initially with the Shanahan offense? What if Cousins’ performance in the preseason is inflated by the opposition he faces in 4th quarter action? We know how patient NFL fan bases are, especially those that haven’t seen a playoff game in decades.
After Cam Newton and Andy Dalton (and not so recently, Ben Roethlisberger and Joe Flacco), RG III has to start for Washington and he has to produce; if not wins, at least excitement.
Of course, that was the case before Washington drafted Kirk Cousins.
I don’t think there’s any real possibility of a quarterback controversy in Washington. RG III will be fine and if he does struggle, Rex Grossman will be next man up, not Kirk Cousins.
That’s too bad.
Quarterback controversies are always fun.
I’m looking at you, New York Jets!
This is not the end…
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