Bittersweet Pigskins

This is it. The end of an era. Not often we have advance notice. But, here we are…

NYJ vs. NEP, 1:00pm, January 7, 2024

Everybody has a theory/prediction for what happens after that game and somebody's going to be right. It probably won't be me, but, yeah, I'm going there, too.

Will Bill Belichick coach the Patriots in 2024?

No.

Will Belichick be fired?

He will no longer be the HC of the NEP but he won't be fired, at least not semantically.

I don't think Robert Kraft wants this to end any worse than it already has, but he put himself in this position when he went public with his expectations of a playoff run this year. So yeah. If things break down and he has to do it, Kraft will fire Belichick but I think they work something out.

Then what does happen with Kraft and Belichick?

Kraft is a business man - and given that Belichick is under contract for 2024 - I believe he will explore trade options. Of course, that would probably require Bill's approval. At the very least, I would assume Kraft would want a non-compete agreement for 2024 (even if that meant paying Belichick not to coach the Patriots) if he can't find a trade partner for Belichick. Given the personalities and the variables involved, we're all just guessing, but, as promised, here goes…

Kraft trades Belichick to the Washington Commanders

Supposedly, there are multiple suitors for Belichick, including Las Vegas and Washington, so, Kraft might be able to get a 1st round draft pick for Belichick if one of those teams doesn't want to leave anything to chance. I like the narrative symmetry to the Belichick journey from Annapolis as a child to nearby Landover as a grown ass man. It's really how this movie should end.

I'm assuming he'll bring his son Steve along as Defensive Coordinator, hire Josh McDaniels as Offensive Coordinator, and sign veterans like Jabrill Peppers as free agents after the next Head Coach of the New England Patriots cuts everyone on the roster over the age of 27. 

Speaking of the next Head Coach of the New England Patriots…

Then who becomes the next HC of the NEP?

The easy answer is Jerod Mayo. I'm not sure that's the correct answer (I'm not sure anyone within six degrees of Bill Belichick is the correct answer) but the harder questions may be (a) who is the QB of the Future for the Patriots and (b) who is their next Offensive Coordinator?

The answer to those two questions obviously depends on answering the first question. 

Note: I'm assuming Kraft might not want to hire a head coach who wants the GM role as well (so there's another critical hire). Yes, I agree with Bill Parcells that if they expect you to cook the meal they ought to let you buy the ingredients but we're talking about two different high stress jobs, and a perspective on the NFL that's about forty years old. Each of those jobs require an almost superhuman capacity to be able to function at a high level on less than 3 hours of sleep and a peanut butter and jelly sandwich. Obviously, the GM and HC need to work well with each other and ideally share a pigskin philosophy, but in the modern NFL, it's really too much for one person to do both jobs well. 

Put another way: How many businesses would have a CEO who is also the VP of HR and their Chief Technology Officer? 

Okay, yes, the answer is a small Tech startup but my point still stands. The NFL is hardly six guys drinking Red Bull from a fully stocked fridge in the garage of Tim's parents' second home in Boca while they crank out Rust code in a desperate attempt to create a video game that's definitely not a ripoff of World of Warcraft.

Where was I? Oh, right! Jerod Mayo. Yeah. Kraft knows him and you know what they say about the devil you know. Still…

I know it hasn't worked out that well in the past but I still think it would be worth taking a shot at one of the bright offensive minds in college football. No, I'm not talking about John Harbaugh. I'd reach out to Lincoln Riley, but I admit that would make a lot more sense if the Patriots could draft Caleb Williams but that is not going to happen. Maybe Dan Lanning if they wind up drafting Bo Nix?

Sure, Kraft could go the old school, Dan "Bite Their Kneecaps" Campbell route at HC (though the Lions offense - coordinated by Ben Johnson - is hardly "old school"), but we've recently been there and done that with Belichick. Unless Kraft plans on using the insanity defense, he really shouldn't be doing the same thing over and over again. 

Maybe looking to the college ranks is a stupid idea (I've had them before) but the Patriots - and Belichick - need a fresh start.

I am forever grateful for what Bill Belichick accomplished in Foxborough. It was a hell of a story. No NFL fan base has had it better than the good citizens of Patriots Nation with Darth hoodie on the sideline. I hope he's able to end his career on his own terms, and I hope that's after he beats Don Shula's record for most wins. 

Godspeed, Bill Belichick.

If it's true that every new beginning comes from some other beginning's end, then next Monday could be that new beginning for the New England Patriots.

We'll see how it goes.

Go Pats!