Julian Edelman's 4th of July Instagram post as Evel Knievel had me thinking again about his HOF cred and prompted me to revisit his incredible 2018 playoff run.
Edelman won the Super Bowl MVP as the Patriots took home their record-tying 6th Lombardi Trophy but he might've been even better in the divisional round, not to mention those two clutch 3rd and 10 catches in the OT win in Kansas City. A quick summary of Jules' playoff performance...
Divisional Round (48-21 win vs. LA Chargers)
9 rec. 151 yards
Conference Championship (37-31 OT win vs. KC Chiefs)
7 rec. 96 yards
Super Bowl LIII (13-3 win vs. LA Rams)
10 rec. 140 yards
2018 Playoff Totals
26 rec. 387 yards
Okay, let's do that small data sample thing...
Edelman's playoff totals give us a per game average of 8.7 catches for 129 yards. Over a full 16 game season (the NFL will go to 17 games for the regular season in 2021 so we'll stick with 16 games for the comps), that would be 138.7 receptions and 2,064 yards.
Michael Thomas holds the single season receptions record with 149 (Marvin Harrison is second with 143) so Edelman's projected catch total falls well short of that mark.
The single season record for receiving yardage is 1,964, held by Calvin Johnson, a total the projected Edelman season beats handily.
A couple of observations…
Yes, a small data sample is unreliable in terms of predicting future outcomes. So stipulated by the attorneys for Julian Edelman's HOF case. But keep in mind the small data sample in question isn't some arbitrary regular season hot streak racked up against teams with losing records playing street free agents at defensive back due to injuries. This is the playoffs, where the best of the best meet in a winner take all single elimination tournament.
Pigskin pundits and bobbleheads predicted a Patriots loss in all three of those games. This was a Patriots team that had lost games in the regular season (Detroit!) that Patriots teams simply did not lose (Miami!) in past years. They were a beaten up, aging out, shadow of their former selves. When Brady noted that "everyone thinks we suck" it was not hyperbole. The whole pigskin world knew the Patriots were dead and were willing to pay scalpers $5,000 for tickets to the funeral.
Also, Calvin Johnson is literally twice as big as Julian Edelman.
Okay, intentionally misusing 'literally' there but just to make the point.
Calvin Johnson is a beast. He stands 6' 5" tall, weighs 240 pounds, and ran a 4.35 40-yard dash. If you were a mad pigskin scientist genetically engineering the perfect NFL wide receiver, you wouldn't need to because Calvin Johnson already exists.
Julian Edelman is your neighbor who played college golf and runs three times a week to stay in shape. He is a decidedly average 5' 10" tall, weighs 195 pounds, and ran a 4.52 40. If you were a mad pigskin scientist genetically engineering the perfect NFL wide receiver, Edelman might have been one of the early failed attempts.
Considering the shape of those two humans, one might observe that Julian Edelman had no business being on a professional football field and yet, he left the game with his name second on a list topped by the one and only Jerry Rice.
Eleven seasons, 3 rings, Super Bowl LIII MVP, a seat next to Jerry Rice in the playoff record books. Not good enough for the Hall of Fame?
That's Canton's loss.
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