Nope. Not summer yet.
Based on how the good citizens of Patriots Nation act, you might think Bill Belichick is some kind of mythic creature who dies every year at the height of his fabled powers, right after the Super Bowl, only to be reborn an oblivious child just before free agency, unable to walk, talk, feed himself or sign a marquee free agent.
The local pigskin pundits and bobbleheads note that we've seen this movie before, that it's the Patriots Way not to overpay for talent, that it's just the first step in a journey of a thousand miles, that Bill Belichick might actually know more about football than they do and still they keen and wail and shake their fists at an indifferent winter sky.
As for myself, I have to say that as a Patriots' fan, it's hard to be anything other than optimistic, even without Antonio Brown or OBJ coming to Foxborough as Trey Flowers and Trent Brown cash in elsewhere. Seeing you team go to 4 of the last 5 Super Bowls and win 3 will tend to have that effect.
As a football fan, would I like to see Brady finish his career with a generational talent at wide receiver?
Yes. The answer is yes. Brady to Moss was pigskin poetry.
Wait for it...
It didn't produce a championship, though.
Hey, maybe I like Phillip Dorsett more than you do and maybe I'm unrealistically optimistic about how productive Dorsett could be with increased usage. I kind of like Dorsett taking Chris Hogan's snaps in 2019. Is Dorsett Julio Jones? No. Then again, nobody is Julio Jones except for Julio Jones.
Okay, so let's say it's Julian Edelman, Dorsett and whatever's behind Door #3. Who ya got?
He's On The Roster Already
How about redshirt freshman Braxton Berrios and/or free agent signing Bruce Ellington?
I get that it would be good if one of these guys was 6' 3" instead of 5' 9" but maybe that's works for the Patriots' offense. We know Belichick places a premium on short area quickness (3-cone drill!) and they've had plenty of success without a prototypical WR1. It's so Belichick to reason, "Top-end, outside the numbers wide receivers are too expensive; I need to build an offense around crafty, sure-handed possession receivers that cost a quarter to a third of what those WR1's cost."
Berrios or Ellington having a breakout season would be a great story but are you risking the mortgage on a prop bet that one of these guys is topping 45 catches and 500 yards receiving?
I know what you were thinking... If Reche Caldwell can catch 61 for 760, why not?
We're still hoping for better though, aren't we?
Free Agency Dollar Store
Admittedly, we're down to asking ourselves questions like, "Do you think Jordy Nelson would be an upgrade over Chris Hogan?" Well, if you were good with the Reche Caldwell comp, how about the 63 catches for 739 yards Nelson posted for an absolutely terrible Oakland Raiders team last year?
Whether it's Nelson, Randall Cobb, Michael Crabtree, or Demaryius Thomas (drafted by Josh McDaniels), you have to think all of these guys are an injury or a training camp retirement decision waiting to happen.
Trader Bill
A trade seems unlikely until the Patriots get closer to training camp or after sorting out their salary cap space (we still haven't heard anything about the extension for Tom Brady, a semi-annual event that frees up enough cap for Bill to sign a backup offensive lineman and a special teams specialist), whichever comes first. The Patriots do have 12 picks in the draft, too, so we could see a draft day trade that brings a talented, if sub-elite, wide receiver to New England.
If you're a Pats Fan, you may already believe that A.J. Green has been traded by the Bengals to the Patriots, given how often this scenario has been floated. I've also seen Sterling Shepherd's name mentioned and given the Giants don't seem to know what they're doing, perhaps Shepherd could be had for a bag of magic beans or a Day 3 pick.
Of course, Belichick is like Chuck Norris in that he doesn't sleep; he waits. Somebody's going to emergency, somebody's going to jail, and somebody is falling in love with the Patriots' #32 pick in the draft. (Oh Pigskin Gods! Please let Kyler Murray fall to #32!) It seems unlikely Belichick would trade that pick straight up for a wide receiver but who knows?
Bill Can't Draft Wide Receivers, Though…
I could give you "the draft is a crapshoot" and "you're lucky to hit on 50% of your picks" lines (both true) but the Patriots track record when it comes to drafting wide receivers is decidedly bleak. Then there's the infamous story of how Belichick tried to talk Thomas Dimitroff out of drafting Julio Jones. (This is where the "In Bill We Trust" crowd counts the Super Bowl rings.) This is a draft fairly deep in wide receiving talent so yes, I'm counting on the Blind Squirrel Theory, here.
As noted above, Belichick has the draft capital necessary to move around the board if there's a wide receiver they see as (1) a fit for the Patriots' offense and (2) the guy they want is available in any round other than the 1st.
In looking over the player rankings and mock drafts, I like the following Day 2 WR prospects as much for the schools they come from as anything else. I think that matters to Belichick (level of competition, quality of coaching, academic standards) when evaluating player fits with the Patriots.
- Riley Ridley, Georgia - Good genes (Calvin Ridley's younger brother). Belichick likes the Georgia program (David Andrews, Sony Michel, Isaiah Wynn) and the level of competition (SEC). Ridley may not have blazing speed but he is 6' 2" and he's a polished route runner. Could be had in the 2nd round. Maybe. This almost makes too much sense to happen.
- J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, Stanford - Must be smart if he went to Stanford! 6' 3" and 225 pounds. Could be a Patriot if he drops to the 3rd round but he seems likely to be overdrafted and likely be gone by then. Then again, Belichick has gone to the Stanford well a number of times with underwhelming returns on the investments. Maybe it's time to move on.
- Miles Boykin, Notre Dame - Not a burner but 6' 4" and 228 pounds. Good value if he's available in the 4th round. Sensing a trend? That's right, all of these kids will be drafted one round before Belichick would call their names.
- Terry McLaurin, Ohio State - His much better reviewed running mate in college, Parris Campbell, seems likely to be off the board as early as the 1st round; why not take a 4th-6th round flyer on the guy who averaged 20 yards per reception his senior season?
- Terry Godwin, Georgia - Not as big or as productive as Ridley but wicked fast. Could be a 7th round/UDFA possibility.
I'm not on the Hunter Renfrew/Andy Isabella hype train but between the two I'd take Isabella as a 7th/UDFA.
Does WR1 Even Matter in Foxborough?
As noted above, Belichick is all about the value proposition and WR1 is a position that comes with sticker shock in general; wide receiver carries the third highest franchise tag value after quarterback and defensive end. (Hardly a surprise then that Trey Flowers got paid. By the Detroit Lions.) The Patriots would just as soon have three or four WR2 as one WR1 and they have an offense - and a quarterback - that can make that work.
It also appears New England is morphing into a team that doesn't want to score quickly. Consider those long, clock-draining drives in the playoffs. Their opening drive in the AFC Championship game at Kansas City is exactly who they want to be. As the rest of the NFL has gone absolutely pass-wacky on offense and is putting 5-6 defensive backs on the field in base, Belichick is building a run-first offense that can steamroll those smaller, pass-rushing d-linemen and those safeties moonlighting as linebackers. Meanwhile, his own defense - well-rested during those 6-8 minute drives by the Pats offense - is more than capable of shutting down those pass-first offenses (see Super Bowl LIII). The opposing offense gets frustrated and anxious sitting on the sideline for those 6-8 minutes of game time and the Patriots' defense stays fresh with plenty of time to make adjustments while Brady and the offense matriculate the ball down the field.
Belichick and McDaniels would line up in a straight-T with two tight ends if they thought that would help them win. (And with Rex Burkhead, Sony Michel, and James White, that could happen.) How about the power-I with Develin at fullback, Gronk and redshirt frosh Ryan Izzo at tight end (or Jared Cook?) and all you need is Julian Edelman at wide receiver. Now the opposing defense is in base with their best run-stoppers in the game. Then the Patriots empty the backfield with Develin and White/Burkhead/Michel split wide and Brady's in shotgun shouting "Kill! Kill! Kill!" because he just spotted the mismatch he's going to exploit.
I'm just saying. The Patriots find a way. In Bill We Trust.
As long as Tom Brady doesn't break a leg skiing, I think they'll be okay.
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