We're On To 2019

We're On To 2019

Have I read everything written and viewed every video recorded and listened to any podcast I could find covering Super Bowl LIII and the Patriots 6th Lombardi Trophy?

Yes. Yes I have.

Now what?

Time to start watching YouTube highlights of college players I've never heard of because pigskin pundits and bobbleheads are projecting them to picks by the New England Patriots in the 2019 draft.

Time to ask myself important, life-altering, existential crisis-level questions like, "Would Demaryius Thomas be an upgrade over Chris Hogan?"

But first…

The litany of amazing tales told about the 20-year dynasty of the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady era seems to be endless. Just yesterday I came across a tweet via Bleacher Report from the Deep Threat twitter account noting the Patriots had, with this season's record, eclipsed the Miami Dolphins to move into 4th place on the list for all-time franchise winning percentage in the NFL. The Patriots, 1960-2018, have a 500-391-9 record for a 55.56% win rate (by my math, because I included ties in the game totals). I had become accustomed to the Patriots being terrible before Bill Parcells arrived and was fully prepared to return to pigskin hell when he left. Even with Parcells, the Patriots had a flair for the tragic.

The Patriots of 1960-2000 were 40 years in the pigskin wilderness.

How good have the the Patriots of 2001-2018 been to move that needle?

220-68-0 for a win rate of 76.39%.

That's a 20-point swing. I believe that's what people who do math call statistically significant.

It took the Patriots franchise 40 years to win 280 games but just 18 years to win the next 220.

I'd been listening to the voices saying that what the Patriots of Belichick and Brady should be appreciated; that what they've done will never be done again. I've been thinking that was crazy. As good as the champions in any sport have been, there will always be another one waiting in history's green room, ready to take their place on the big stage. I won't live to see it but all New England has done is to set the bar for future football generations to cross.

I start to wonder if maybe those voices are right, in part because Belichick and Brady aren't done yet (the bar will be set higher), but in larger part because 18 years is hardly a small data sample.

I've also noted a reticence amongst football's chattering class to entertain the question no football fan west of the Connecticut River wants to hear spoken aloud: Can the Patriots repeat?

You would be stupid to bet against them, wouldn't you?

Ah, but that's just recency bias talking, isn't it?

The Patriots have already lost most of their defensive coaching staff and seem likely to lose key contributors to their SB53 win to free agency and retirement. Still, there are a few reasons to be optimistic about New England bringing home a 7th Lombardi Trophy before Tom Brady moves to Acapulco and starts winning cliff-diving championships.

Let's Not Bury the Lede…

Bill Belichick and Tom Brady? Still here.

Belichick Will Pay Trey Flowers… Just like he paid Devin McCourty

Not a foregone conclusion - and another franchise (Jets-cough-Jets) with a buttload of cap space may make Flowers an offer Belichick simply can't match - but I'm cautiously optimistic Flowers returns to Foxborough in 2019.

Second-Year Leap Candidates...

J.C. Jackson had a better rookie year (minus the Super Bowl heroics) than Malcolm Butler. He's got great ball skills and he's big enough to cover tight ends. It seems a foregone conclusion he'll be opening day CB2 opposite Stephon Gilmore in 2019, regardless of what happens with Jason McCourty in free agency or with Eric Rowe's return from IR.

I'd be more than happy if Sony Michel could simply repeat his rookie season numbers (931 yards rushing, 6 TD) but it isn't unreasonable to think he can and will improve (especially catching passes out of the backfield) in 2019. Are 1,200 yards and 10 TD out of the question? Let's just pencil that in.

The Patriots thought enough of rookie Keion Crossen to make him a key piece of their strategy to shut down Tyreek Hill in the AFC Championship Game. He may spend most of his time on special teams in 2019 but could still be an important situational player on defense.

Sort Of Second-Year Leap Candidates...

Most of the Patriots 2018 draft class spent the season on IR. Perhaps it's better to think of them as extra draft picks but there are plenty of intriguing possibilities in this group.

First round pick Isaiah Wynn was penciled in as a starter/replacement for Nate Solder before an Achilles tear in the preseason.

JaWhaun Bentley showed flashes as a thumper at inside linebacker before a torn bicep ended his season. His presence inside could provide more opportunities for Dont'a Hightower to rush the passer.

Duke Dawson was going to be the answer at nickel corner before he wound up on IR.

Ryan Izzo is still an unwritten story at tight end as are Braxton Berrios as a slot receiver and Christian Sam at linebacker. For now, I'll just roll with "there's a reason Belichick drafted them in the first place."

Also Returning from IR...

The Patriots look to be set at running back but let's not forget Jeremy Hill. He's just 26-years old and a big back option at 6-1, 230 pounds.

Also 26-years old is defensive back Eric Rowe. Given the youthful depth at cornerback, if Rowe can comeback from injury, I think it would have to be at safety.

One wonders whether the talent Jacob Hollister has flashed at tight end will lead to consistent productivity but I admit I'm still hopeful. I'll also admit I'm ready to move on to Ryan Izzo.

Brian Schwenke and Ulrick John may just be depth pieces/camp bodies on the offensive line but it's worth noting Schwenke was an early free agent signing by the Patriots, coming right after the Super Bowl.

Free Agency...

Can the Patriots keep Trey Flowers and Trent Brown? Probably not, but I'd start with trying to keep them rather than worry about what else is on the open market.

Free agency is a frenzy of desperate General Managers trying to save their jobs by overpaying for enigmatic or aging talent. They aren't making decisions based on net present value or sustainability. They need to make a splash signing that says, "Look at me doing my job!" They need to put enough talent in the locker room to be able to blame the Head Coach when that talent doesn't show up or show out on the field and their team doesn't make the playoffs.

It's hard to beat crazy.

Local pigskin pundits and bobbleheads have been beating the drums for wide receiver Adam Humphries (Phillip Dorsett, Chris Hogan, and Cordarrelle Patterson are all free agents) but aside from that, the list of free agents is exceedingly long and outside of the Top 5 or 10 talents available (none of which the Patriots can afford), largely uninspiring.

Not that I won't talk myself into the brilliance of Bill Belichick when he signs a second-tier safety with special teams experience.

If Belichick figures out a way to keep Trey Flowers, I'll call free agency a win for the Patriots.

The Draft...

The Patriots have 8 picks in hand and could receive as many as 4 compensatory picks in the 2019 draft. Now, the draft is a crapshoot so. If you're only going to hit on half your picks, it's better to have 12 than 7. Sometimes math is simple.

The good news? This draft is fairly deep in terms of potential Gronkowski replacements (ideally, T.J. Hockensen falls to #32 and into Bill Belichick's waiting embrace), and potential Brady heirs (would Josh McDaniels lobby for Kyler Murray if he falls to #32 or are we thinking Danny Etling is better than Duke's Daniel Jones?) and lots and lots of defensive tackles (Belichick loves him some defensive tackles).

My ideal scenario would be to have Kyler Murray fall to #32 and see Belichick turn that into four picks, including a future 1st (that he would use to draft Clemson's Trevor Lawrence next year). Or a trade with the Cardinals for Josh Rosen and a sweetener.

Of the players projected to the Patriots, I'm thirsty for the tall wide receivers; Kelvin Harmon, 6' 3" out of North Carolina State (back-to-back years with 1,000-yards receiving which seems even more impressive when I ask myself, "Who was playing QB for NC State, anyway?"), and Hakeem Butler, 6' 6" out of Iowa State (because he's 6' 6" tall). I'm not saying either one of those guys is even a poor man's Randy Moss and maybe it's that lingering feeling of unfinished business attached to that 2007 team but adding a big, outside the numbers threat to the Patriots offense would allow them to threaten all levels of the field, not to mention how effective a deep strike off play-action to Sony Michel would be.

Ultimately, I think that first pick winds up being a space-eating, run-stopping defensive tackle.

Not that there's anything wrong with that.