Sunday, October 7, 2018

Getting Better

The best thing about the Thursday night win? The Patriots haven't come close to touching their ceiling yet.


It's starting to look like the only thing that can stop the Patriots is (wait for it) the Patriots themselves. If it hadn't been for three drops - two of which turned into INTs - New England could've posted anywhere between 47 and 59 points. Keeping the math simple (one bad quarter out of four), the offense is running at about 75% efficiency.

A few weeks ago, Tom Brady had no weapons. Brandin Cooks was tearing it up in LA and all those people who hate to say "I told you so" were saying, "I told you so." Sony Michel was a bust. Cordarrelle Patterson was in witness protection. The Josh Gordon trade signalled desperation in Foxborough. Pigskin pundits and bobbleheads didn't see Julian Edelman's return as the answer to the Pats seemingly endless list of questions on offense.

And the defense looked bad; slow, unathletic, undisciplined, unable to stop the run or pressure the quarterback. But does anyone really care about defense in the 21st century NFL? No. This isn't your grandpappy's NFL. This is a 35-28 league, not a 10-3 league. When your offense scores 38 points as the Patriots have in back to back games, your defense only has to hold the opponent to 37 (sometimes math is easy).

I'm good with that.

Scoring 38 points in three quarters is a good sign all on its own but there were plenty of other moments that provided a glimpse of what the Patriots offense might look like when pigskin things get really real after Thanksgiving...

TDs for Gordon and Patterson
For Patterson, his second score in as many games; for Gordon his first as a Patriot.

Josh McDaniels is taking advantage of Patterson's freak size and athletic skills, evident in both of those scoring plays. The legal, line of scrimmage pick that left Patterson wide open in space against the Dolphins and the goal line bubble screen (yeah, it looked a lot like the Amendola 2-point conversion in SB51) against the Colts seem almost unfair. Patterson looks bigger than his listed 6' 2" and 228 pounds perhaps in part because he's standing next to 5' 10" and 195 pound defensive backs. It feels like Patterson's quest to find an offense where his skills can make a difference has been going on forever, but he's just 27 years old. Really, he's still in his prime. And his quest to find an offensive coordinator who gets him may finally be over.

But let's be real; the bigger, better story here is Gordon.

Gordon looks slight next to Patterson, yet he has nearly the same measurables (6' 3" and 225 pounds) and he's also 27 years old. It's a small data sample but it is what it is: He's averaging 20.5 yards per reception. We all know the backstory and what's at stake for Gordon but now we're seeing what's possible for Gordon in the Patriots offense. Just how good the TD reception was ranged from meh to Moss-esque (let's split the difference) but a couple of things struck me about Brady's 500th TD pass. First, Gordon demonstrated his football IQ in breaking off the post route (and was held) and sprinted to the corner. In replays it was clear he was locked in on Brady. We've been hearing about how smart Gordon is from his teammates and we got to see some of that on the TD catch. Second, we got to see his athleticism as he split the two Colts defenders to come up with the catch.

Perhaps most importantly, Brady trusted Gordon to make a play and Gordon came through.

Chris Hogan and Phillip Dorsett
Hogan and Dorsett looked a lot more like the complimentary pieces they were supposed to be Thursday night. They had 6 catches on 7 targets (the lone incompletion being the ball that skipped off Hogan's hands into the waiting arms of a Colts defender). Defenses cannot play zone against Brady, they have to match up man-to-man. Hogan or Dorsett are going to wind up with match ups against CB3s and CB4s and when that happens, Brady will find them.

Edelman's Return
I was one of those who thought Edelman's return would provide immediate returns and well, I told you so. Having said that, I'll admit I missed out perhaps the most important aspect of Edelman's return. Sure, he's 80 catches, 1,000 yards, and 6 TDs of production and it's clear how important the slot receiver is to the Patriots offense but…

Edelman is a "heart and soul" guy. A great teammate and locker room guy and as we've learned the hard way in past seasons, the locker room matters. A trash talker on the field and a cheerleader on the sideline. How could I forget that moment on the sideline of SB51 with Edelman and Brady. "Let's win this one. For your mom. For your mom, bro." (Be right back. Need to grab a tissue.) Edelman is a brother to his teammates. The Jaguars are a good team so I'm not sure Jules changes the outcome in Jacksonville but I feel utterly confident Detroit doesn't happen if JE11 is active for that game.  

Gronk Being Gronk
Maybe it's as simple as this; Gronk looked like he'd lost a step because he was dealing with an ankle injury. Add to that the double- and triple-teams he was dealing with and the underwhelming numbers over the first four weeks of the season make a little more sense. Thursday night, with Edelman on the field and James White occupying linebackers, Gronkowski wound up with 6 catches for 75 yards. Gronk hasn't found the end zone since Week 1 but you know his next Gronk Spike moment is a matter of when, not if. Despite mere mortal numbers so far, Gronk still leads the Pats in receiving yards.

Gronk has 10 days to get as healthy as possible for prime-time pigskins with NFL Media Relations darlings the Kansas City Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes, and TE Travis Kelce.

Bill Belichick, Tom Brady, and Rob Gronkowski would never risk the outcome of the game on it but don't you get the feeling they want to walk off the field next Sunday night having made it clear who the best tight end in the NFL is?   

James White, Sony Michel, and the Offensive Line
White is looking like the best pass-catching running back in the NFL. Michel has gone from draft bust to whispers of a possible Offensive Rookie of the Year award.

White has local pigskin pundits and bobbleheads dusting off memories of Kevin Faulk and I'd say, rightly so. When talking essential Patriots on the offensive side of the ball, you have to mention his name alongside Brady, Gronk, and Edelman. He isn't Todd Gurley but Todd Gurley sees James White.

Michel is a hammer. By my count, he knocked out two Colts defenders Thursday night. He got off to a slow start, missing the first two games of the season, so consider that as context for his 73.5 yards per game rushing average, which projects to 1,176 yards for the season. Michel is starting to look like the 4th quarter closer the Patriots have lacked since the days of Clock Killin' Corey Dillon.

Michel's 34-yard TD scamper showed off his vision, speed, and strength but also provided an absolute clinic in offensive line play. Trent Brown, Joe Thuney, David Andrews, Shaq Mason, and Marcus Cannon have paved the way for Michel's 200+ yards and 2 TDs rushing and kept Brady clean over the last two games.

Brady
Statistically, Brady isn't having a Brady-level season (so far), but you know what they say (and by "they" I mean Bill Belichick): "Stats are for losers." Having said that...

Tom Terrific's 34/44/341/3/2 slash line from Thursday night could just as easily have been 37/44/400/5/0 if not for three key drops. The pitch perfect 9 for 9 opening drive of the game was vintage Brady. More importantly, perhaps, was the response to that upside-down 3rd quarter. After the Colts closed the gap to 7 points, Brady goes 4 for 4 (with a 5th completion wiped out by penalty) in the 6 play, 75-yard drive capped by the 34-yard TD pass to Gordon.

All of which is just my passive-aggressive way of saying, there's nothing wrong with Tom Brady.

I think the Patriots defense will get better over the course of the season but this isn't the 2015 Broncos carrying the corpse of Peyton Manning to a lifetime achievement Super Bowl win. This is the last Jedi, the 41-year old QB putting the New England Patriots on his back and carrying them back to the playoffs one more time.

The Narrative
I suppose there's a compelling story to be told by all of the NFL franchises. I mean, the Browns in the playoffs? Hard to top that. Do the Steelers come together or fall apart? Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs. Will the Eagles repeat? Can Aaron Rodgers win a Super Bowl on one leg? And so on. But after 18 years, Robert Kraft, Bill Belichick, Tom Brady, and the New England Patriots are still front page and that's a compelling narrative in and of itself, but there's a Russian novel's worth of subplots in Foxborough in 2018.

Can the Patriots overcome the personality conflicts and palace intrigue at 1 Patriots Place?

There's Julian Edelman's return from injury and suspension.

Can Dont'a Hightower return to his big playmaking self?

The Josh Gordon redemption story.

Did I mention Tom Brady is 41-years old?

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