The Waiting Game

I've said this before so forgive me repeating… Bill Belichick is like Chuck Norris. He does not sleep; he waits.

Let's think back to the end game for SB49. Belichick looks across the field and sees the Seattle sideline in chaos. He refuses to call a timeout to let Pete Carroll and Darrell Bevell a chance to get their shit together. He waits. What do people do in moments of stress? They fall back to whatever they're comfortable with. Belichick watches as the Seahawks line up to run a play that his team had practiced for because they identified it as a play Seattle had a tendency to call in goal line situations. Belichick waited and Carroll and Bevell did exactly what he knew they would do, exactly what his team was prepared for.

That's a story that also features a current player in the on-going drama that is the pigskin version of "Game of Thrones;" the Patriots and the NFL.

As a Patriots fan, I'm anxious for closure in the Malcolm Butler subplot. I'm assuming a win-win outcome - New England keeps Butler for at least the 2017 season or they get a 1st round pick in return - so I guess I should just relax. Still, I'd like to know. It's hard to enjoy mock drafts without a 1st round pick in hand.

Many citizens of Patriots Nation believe there's been a wink-wink, nod-nod agreement between Saints HC Sean Payton and Belichick, myself included. The more I think about it, though, the less likely I think it's true. It just doesn't seem like Belichick to make any sort of commitment without having all the information he wants and needs. The Brandin Cooks transaction was the Brandin Cooks transaction. No winks, no nods. And I don't see Belichick giving up the leverage he holds with the RFA first round tender on Butler. If there were any back channel conversations between Payton and Belichick I now think it was something like...

"Sean. Bubby. We're coaching cousins so you know how this game is played. You're going to have to make an offer and I'm going to have the chance to match and if I don't, you'll be giving me the #11 pick in the draft. Go ahead. Talk to Malcolm. Do what you need to do but know I'm going to do what I need to do, too. Oh, and thanks for Brandin Cooks. You know how I suck at drafting wide receivers."

Belichick can wait.

Butler has to sign his tender before anything else can happen and Butler has to sign his tender or lose out on a chance to play in New Orleans this year or become an unrestricted free agent a year from now and strike it rich.

There's always a deal to be made, of course. Payton doesn't want to have to give up #11 and a big contract for Butler but he has to know that Belichick won't accept #32 without a sweetener; a second- or a third-rounder. Not with #11 in play.

I wonder if Butler wants to leave. The Texans expressed interest. Why hasn't Malcolm booked a flight to Houston?

Perhaps a better question...

Why hasn't Butler fired his agent?

Instead of some arbitrary and (apparently) unrealistic number ($10MM a year? More?), he should be trying to get Butler the best deal possible. He's already cost his client as much as $3MM if the stories are true that the Patriots offered $6-7MM a year before the 2016 season.

First things first, he should have advised Butler to sign his RFA tender immediately. That sets the floor for his compensation at $3.9MM and maintains an open and professional relationship with his current employer.

Then you talk to New Orleans, Houston and whoever else might be in the market for a CB1. Maybe you get $10MM; maybe you don't. Maybe you top the $6-7MM Belichick reportedly offered before. Whatever you get, the Patriots have to match or let Butler go for that 1st round pick. Either way, your client gets paid.

This isn't about disrespect. It isn't about fairness. It's all about the CBA and the rules of free agency. It's business. Do business.

Bill Belichick is waiting to do business.

Belichick can wait on Jimmy Garoppolo, too. And those stories about putting the franchise tag aren't as crazy as you might think. Certainly I thought they were crazy. Yes, paying a backup quarterback $21MM is unconventional to say the least but this is Bill Belichick we're talking about.

Anyway, the numbers...

The franchise tag for QB in 2017 is $21.268MM. According to a recent post on Pats Pulpit, the Patriots have $27.110MM in cap space after re-signing Dont'a Hightower. A restructure for Nate Solder and another mark down for Danny Amendola could add to that so let's round up to $32MM. If the Pats flat out release Amendola we can bump that to $35MM. Remembering that NFL teams can roll over unused cap space to the next league year, that leaves the Pats with about $12MM to work with in 2017 if they want to give themselves the option to tag Garoppolo next year.

With all the big ticket items on the books already, New England could sign Butler to a long-term deal (on their terms of course) and still have plenty of cap space left for draft picks without having to touch the Jimmy G escrow fund.

Bill Belichick will answer Cleveland's phone call on draft day but he won't say yes unless they offer more than #12.

Because Bill Belichick can wait.