Would You Rather?

Just wondering…

Would you rather have LeGarrette Blount or Adrian Peterson?

The Patriots have signed Rex Burkhead. With Burkhead, the addition of WR Brandin Cooks and return of Rob Gronkowski, they may feel like they've got whatever snaps are available for rushing the football are covered with Burkhead, Dion Lewis and James White. Still, Burkhead's sample size as a lead back is rather small so maybe a true between the tackles workhorse is still a need.

Let's roll with that premise...

Peterson comes with off-the-field baggage and a recent injury history that made me dismiss the early rumors of Patriots' interest. Of course, I tend to dismiss any potential Patriot who doesn't have any special teams value. Hey, my glass of Bill Belichick Wild Blueberry Kool-Aid is empty! Hit me again bartender!

Peterson the man clearly thinks his God is still in his corner, which I guess makes some sense given his Old Testament-style of parenting (not to mention procreation). As for his recent injury history, I guess he's due for a healthy season; when Peterson has been healthy (2013, 2015) he's been highly effective.  

But I'm not seeing Corey Dillon 2.0 here despite the fact Dillon was also coming off the worst year of his career when he joined New England in 2004. In fact, Peterson feels way too much like Stephen Jackson 2.0.

LeGarrette Blount will never be compared to Peterson or any of the other elite running backs in the storied history of the NFL. But so what. This isn't about talent acquisition; it's about team-building.  LG is coming off the best year of his career. He has a clear cut role in the New England offense and seems sincerely happy to play that part. Sharing snaps with Burkhead might actually make Blount more effective as a goal line back and 4th quarter closer.

I'd rather have LeGarrette Blount in a RB by committee structure with Burkhead, Lewis and White.

As far as it goes, I'd be cool with Burkhead, Lewis, White and D.J. Foster. As a kid I loved Hank Stram's Kansas City Chiefs offense with it's platoon of  versatile running backs featuring Mike Garrett, Paul Lowe and Ed Podolak. (Good stuff on the '69 Chiefs on YouTube.) I think White made the leap in 2016 and SB51 was his coming out party. Maybe the Patriots already have all the running backs they need.

Would you rather have Malcolm Butler or multiple draft picks?

I'm starting to believe Butler will be playing for the Patriots in 2017, probably on his RFA tender, though I wouldn't be totally surprised by an extension, either. The consensus amongst the gridiron cognoscenti is the Saints aren't going to give up a 1st round pick in trade for Butler (assuming they come to terms on a contract). The RFA tender entitles the Patriots a 1st round pick and Belichick isn't going to sell low. Does that mean it's the Saints #11 or nothing?

No.

Think total value, not draft position.

As for Butler, his best chance for a big payday in 2018 would be playing for the Patriots opposite Stephon Gilmore. At this point, I think he'll wait till after the draft to sign, virtually guaranteeing that he plays for the Patriots in 2017. Opposing quarterbacks will need to pick their poison with Gilmore and Butler and that could result in career best numbers in interceptions and passes defended for Butler.

Cha-ching!

But I digress.

The problem with draft picks is that you really don't know who you're going to get or how they're going to perform as pros with any reasonable level of certainty. Belichick gets that. He has a history of trading down for multiple picks for a reason. As noted above, it's about value, not position. More picks means more chances of hitting on a prospect. (Of course, Belichick has a pretty good history in the 1st round, too, but that doesn't really suit my narrative.) The draft is a crapshoot so it's better to have more picks. If you're going to hit on 1 out of 3, it's better to have 9 picks than 7.

A complicating factor here is that the Saints have to come up with a contract that would convince Butler to sign his RFA tender so trade talks can start. So far that clearly has not happened. The Patriots 2016 offer of $6-7MM has to be the obvious floor for any Saints offer. Did they start at $8MM with Butler and his agent looking for $10MM? Were there cupcakes? Or beignets?

Apologies; a second digression…

Would I rather have draft picks? I would. With caveats. I'd rather have #11 than Malcolm Butler but I have to agree that's not going to happen. I'd rather have #32 and the Saints' second round pick than Malcolm Butler but I don't think that will happen either. The Saints' second round and their two third round picks?

Yes. I'd do that deal.

No, I don't think that happens, either.

As they say, sometimes the best deals are the ones you don't make.

Would you rather have Jimmy Garoppolo or the Browns #12 pick in the 2017 draft?

See all caveats about draft picks, above.

I'm a big believer in having a Plan B. I believe in the karmic hedge a Plan B provides. In my life experience, when you have a solid Plan B, you almost never need it but in those rare cases when you do, well, you've got Plan B! When you don't have a Plan B, Plan A is definitely at risk. Obviously, Bill Belichick gets this. He's the man who had wide receiver Troy Brown take some snaps at defensive back in training camp one year, you know, just in case.

Stating the obvious…

Tom Brady is Plan A. Jimmy Garoppolo is Plan B.

Now, we don't know what Bill Belichick knows about Jacoby Brissett. We have an even smaller data sample on Brissett than we have on Jimmy Garoppolo. I like Brissett's moxie and athleticism but I like Garoppolo's decision-making and accuracy even more. (For whatever that's worth.) Anyway, Brisset is obviously a variable in the decision on Jimmy G.

Let's throw another thing out there: As Patriots fans, isn't our dream scenario not seeing Garoppolo or Brissett during the regular season or playoffs (except for kneel-downs in blowouts)? How about if we don't see Chase Daniels (or whatever veteran backup QB New England signs if they do trade Garoppolo) and Jacoby Brissett during the regular season, instead?

Okay, I'm not talking myself into this...

While I'm not really that concerned with Tom Brady suffering a season-ending injury it's not like it never happened before. So, yeah, I'd rather have Plan B.

Having said that, I'll be watching the draft closely to see if the Jets take Mitch Trubisky with the #6 pick and whether Deshaun Watson is available when Roger Goodell announces, "Cleveland is on the clock" for the #12 pick. Will Cleveland's desperation intersect with the top ranked player on New England's draft board? We'll have to wait and see.

Would you rather have Danny Amendola or Michael Floyd?

Danny Amendola. Easy call.

Of course, I'm assuming a re-worked deal for Amendola and that Michael Floyd is going to spend the month of September suspended for alcohol-related dumbassery. Even if Floyd wasn't still under house arrest I'm pretty sure I'd go with Amendola now that Brandin Cooks on the roster. Dola can return punts and kicks and provides insurance for a Julian Edelman visit to the NFL's concussion protocol.

Ultimately, I'd rather keep an extra wide receiver named Danny Amendola than an extra running back, even if that means losing LeGarrette Blount.