Christmas in New England will be Played on the Road

Watching a little bit of Bill Belichick's press conference Wednesday morning on ESPN. As usual, Belichick was effusive and detailed in his praise of the Jets and their players while being guarded if not downright stingy in his assessment of his own players (with a variation on "they're all good" in response to Chandler Jones' career high 12.5 sacks). In his responses to questions about the newest Patriot, Steven Jackson, Belichick did not disappoint. 

"We'll see."

Yes, yes we will.

Apparently the Patriots – and specifically Bill Belichick and Tom Brady – are playing chess and everyone else is playing checkers. And how bad are the Dolphins, am I right?

I get this feeling that if every team had to play their backups the Patriots would be odds on favorites to win the Super Bowl. There are other well run organizations in the NFL, of course, and I'm (of course) parochial in my interests but it seems that nobody does more with the back end of the roster than Belichick. The competitive meritocracy that is the New England roster is well documented. There is always an undrafted free agent who makes the team coming out of training camp and winds up making a positive contribution. Last year it was CB Malcolm Butler; this year C David Andrews. The defending Super Bowl champions have 10 rookies on their roster (with 4 more on the practice squad and another 3 on IR). Every year Belichick takes a player off of some other team's trash heap and turns them into a key contributor, like Akeem Ayers last year and Jabaal Sheard this year, be it by trade or via free agency. Belichick trades for players like DT Akiem Hicks and WR/KR Keshawn Martin and we ask "Who? What?" then watch as they step up and make big plays.

Quick Aside: Seriously, Cleveland didn't want Sheard but in New England he's logged 30 tackles with 7 sacks playing in a DE/OLB rotation with starters Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich. Jones and Ninkovich are playing less and playing better as is the true for the front seven as a whole. The Pats are 6th in points allowed and first in sacks heading into Week 16 and that's with Jamie Collins and Dont'a Hightower missing multiple games. That's not all because of Sheard, of course, but it's fair to think of him as the tipping point.

When Belichick was asked if he was surprised by CB Leonard Johnson's performance in his first game with the Patriots, Belichick reminded the questioner that Johnson had played in this league before. Indeed, in three years as a part-time starter for Tampa Bay, Johnson recorded 5 INT and 22 passes defensed. Belichick's answer also carried the subtext of expectations that come with putting on a Patriots' jersey. Do your job (well). Was Belichick surprised? Why would he be surprised by a player meeting that basic expectation?

More recent veteran signings LaAdrian Waddle (25, with 24 starts in 2.5 seasons with Detroit), Leonard Hankerson (26, with 107 catches for 1,408 yards over 4.5 injury limited seasons with Washington and Atlanta), and Steven Jackson (32, with 11,388 yards rushing and 3,663 yards receiving over his 11 years with St. Louis and Atlanta) have yet to make a contribution and maybe they don't. It's a tough game. Sometimes you lose. It’s been a long time since 2006 when Jackson rushed 346 times for 1,528 yards and caught 90 passes for another 808 (90 passes!). Jackson's arrival has made the Montee Ball signing – to the practice squad – a small luxury. Once upon a time, not that long ago, Ball (25, 175 carries for 731yards in two injury shortened seasons) was going to be the lead running back for the Broncos. Hankerson's, Waddle's and Ball's injury histories should modify our optimistic with cautiously, of course.

Still, these guys have all played the game. Other than Jackson, they're young enough to have their best football ahead of them. Waddle is gigantic; I find this attractive in a right tackle. And maybe all he needs to be is better than Cameron Fleming. Maybe Hankerson only needs to give Danny Amendola a rest until the playoffs. Best Case: Hankerson's the next Brandon LaFell, another guy who never looked as good in his old jersey as he did once he got to Foxborough and Montee Ball can be Stevan Ridley minus the fumbling. Given his age, Jackson is obviously a one-year rental but if he can reach back to his St. Louis years and effectively step into that "big back" role for New England, he could cap his Hall of Very Good career with a ring.

Of course, one man's trash is sometimes another man's trash, too. For every Jabaal Sheard there's a Chad "Ochocinco" Jackson. As our Pigskin Yoda said, "We'll see."

I'm reminded of Ernie Adams in "Do Your Job," saying of the preparation that led to Malcolm Butler's game-winning INT in Super Bowl XLIX that you'd like to get it that right every time but you can't. As good as Belichick is – and he's historically good – he isn't perfect. Even so, if I was a betting man, I'd bet on Belichick having found a guy who can and will make a play that wins a game in the playoffs and the announcers will ask, "How do the Patriots find these guys?"

They're always looking for these guys!

That they can find these guys on the rosters of terrible teams like the Lions and Falcons really shouldn't be a surprise. A significant component of what makes a bad football team is that they can't evaluate talent. Or they're constantly changing systems (because of the sucking they keep firing GM's and Head Coaches) so those 3-4 guys the fired GM drafted are worthless in that shiny new 4-3 defense the shiny new GM and shiny new head Coach have installed. We're shiny! We're new! Between old-fashioned ineptitude and recurring organizational flux there's a constant stream of talent available to the discerning pigskin eye.

I'd love to have a look into the Patriots' player personnel database. All the player profiles, college seniors, pros who were on their draft board, potential free agents, actual free agents, the rank and file of the NFL, really. System-specific grades, workout metrics sortable by 3-Cone Drill time, video highlights, biographical thumbnails, embarrassing Instagram-related moments, college transcripts, criminal records. I believe my mind would be boggled by the breadth and depth of pigskin knowledge in the New England Patriots' data lake.

Other teams suffer injuries and most of them wind up watching the playoffs from the couch. Right next to those loser Dolphins and all their healthy players. Shouldn't everyone associated with building this roster be fired? This is the team they built and it's 5-9-0. I suppose there are worse teams. The Browns and Titans, of course. So, there's that. You be you, Miami Dolphins.

Anyway, injuries. The struggle is real. Somehow (hard work, planning, attention to detail, scouting, advanced analytics, Ernie Adams, the coaching staff, Tom Brady, all of the above except (c) but no probably cheating), Bill Belichick finds a way to overcome injuries; devastating injuries, a rash of injuries in a single position group, volume injuries that cut across the roster and all positions on offense, defense and special teams. It doesn't matter. There's a veteran ready to step up or there's a guy we never heard of but whoever he is he's blocking a punt! Or… recovering a fumble!

The Patriots are 12-2-0. Their starting left tackle has been out for the season since the start of the season. Their top two running backs are also on injured reserve. Julian Edelman has been out for weeks, Danny Amendola is hobbled and somebody named Keshawn Martin is returning kicks and playing meaningful minutes at wide receiver. Tom Brady is playing out of his mind. The Pats have a rock solid defense (if healthy) and defense shows a strong correlation to championships. New England has its sixth consecutive bye week locked up and the #1 seed in the AFC bracket is theirs to lose.

Maybe Santa Claus is real.