Broken Hearts and Broken Bones

Why can’t we have nice things? Peter King – despite in house expert testimony to the contrary – thinks Rob Gronkowski’s broken arm is all about Bill Belichick’ negative balance in the karma bank. Actually, King tries to have it both ways, saying that he “cannot argue” with the notion that Gronk’s fractured forearm is some form of cosmic payback for Bill Belichick’s many sins and general dickishness at the beginning of a paragraph then ending that same paragraph by saying he really doesn’t have a problem with Gronk being on the field for that fateful PAT. To quote the most condescending blowhard in pigskin punditry, “Whatever.”

Happy freakin’ Thanksgiving, Patriots Nation!

 

Is there a good time to lose a player to injury?

There isn’t, is there?

I didn’t think so.

Losing Rob Gronkowski – possibly for the remainder of the regular season – is a significant blow to the Patriots offense, if I may state the incredibly obvious. He is arguably the greatest player at his position and could end his career as the greatest to ever play tight end. Gronk is a great blocking tight end. I think he could have been a pro bowl tackle if it weren’t for his pass catching abilities. His two scoring catches Sunday gave him 10 for the season; he is the first tight end in NFL history to have double-digit TD catches in his first three seasons.

But this is a fact of life in the NFL. As Tom Brady pointed out in his Monday call with WEEI, the Jets are playing without Darrelle Revis and Santonio Holmes, both done for the season with injuries.

It’s football. Guys get hurt. The Patriots played without four opening day starters on Sunday. Starting guards Logan Mankins and Dan Connolly, tight end Aaron Hernandez and safety Patrick Chung were inactive due to injury. Then they lost rookie phenom DE Chandler Jones to an ankle injury in the first quarter. 

Just another Sunday in the NFL.

A Brief History of One Game on One Sunday in the NFL

If Steven Gostkowski hadn’t missed a 36-yard field goal attempt, the Patriots would’ve scored 62 points. The Patriots scored in every phase of the game. It was relentless. A quick look back to my last post:

Aqib Talib debuting with a Pick-6 is probably too much to ask, isn’t it?

Three more turnovers are probably too much to ask, too.

If only I was this lucky with Powerball. The Pats actually turned Andrew Luck over four times, with the Rob Ninkovich strip sack fumble recovery and Tavon Wilson’s garbage time INT added to the Pick-6 efforts by Aqib Talib and Alfonzo Dennard.

Talib was far from perfect but I think we got a glimpse of what this Patriots defense can become on Sunday, with Talib and Dennard at the corners and Steve Gregory and Devin McCourty at safety. Assuming Chandler Jones ankle injury is non-life threatening, the New England defense is looking pretty good, front seven to back four. Are they efficient? No, not really. They gave up 448 yards and 24 points to the Colts. Are they effective? Those four takeaways gave the Patriots 27 for the season and a league-leading +20 turnover margin. So, yeah, they’re effective.

A win over the Jets would tell us a lot about this year’s Patriots team. If they can win on the road, on a short week, without Gronkowski, against their hated divisional rivals I’ll indulge myself a fleeting fantasy of a fourth Lombardi Trophy as an almost imperceptible smile to tugs at the corner of my mouth while my eyes look to something far off in the distance.  

The Jets, meanwhile, can’t even win without acting like two-year olds. Following their decisive road win over the Rams, LB Bart Scott attempted to organize a media boycott and then freaked out on teammates who had the temerity to speak with pigskin pundits and bobbleheads. Apparently, the Jets’ 99 problems are – like so many of the bad things in the world today – a creation of the liberal media elites.

Tragic, really.

Trending

The Jets are going to need some help if they’re going to make the playoffs. They are three games out in the AFC East and two games back in the wildcard hunt but the last six games of the season – aside from the Pats – is the opposite of daunting (Cardinals, Jaguars, Titans, Chargers and Bills). Should the Patriots stumble without Gronkowski or the Steelers stumble without Roethlisberger or the Colts regress to the mean or all of the above, the Jets could once again start talking Super Bowl. That’s if the liberal media elites don’t screw it up for those lovable scamps from Jersey, of course.

It’s possible but is it realistic? Way too many variables in play for my tastes but I’m not a Jets’ fan. Faith, like the relativity of simultaneity, depends on the observer’s reference frame.

So, let’s make some observations…

NFC East…

New York Giants – Their division lead shrank to 1 game over their bye week. They’ve got Green Bay, New Orleans, Atlanta and Baltimore to play, Eli Manning can’t find the strike zone with his slider and the G-Men have a recent history of coming up small in the second half of the season. The good news? They are something of a hawk among crows in the NFC East.

Dallas Cowboys – With their less than impressive OT win at home over the less than impressive Cleveland Browns, America’s Crazy Ex-Girlfriend begins its run for the playoffs or so the story goes in Big D. The Boys have Pittsburgh and New Orleans to play and I’m not sure I buy the notion they will sweep Washington (quite the opposite, in fact) and their offensive line is a Tony Romo concussion waiting to happen.

Washington Redskins – I get the feeling that Mike Shanahan is just Norv Turner with a tan.

Only one of these three teams will make the playoffs; by default, I’ll take the Giants to win the division.

NFC North…

Chicago Bears – Assuming Jay Cutler is good to go next Sunday, the Bears will have a shot at winning the NFC North. If defense wins championships, pencil the Bears in for a loss in the NFC Championship game to the 49ers.

Green Bay Packers – With the hard fought win in Detroit the Packers ran their winning streak to 5 games. Aaron Rodgers is backing up his 2011 MVP season with what might be an even more impressive 2012 campaign, given the various and sundry injuries to Packers receivers, running backs and offensive linemen.

Minnesota Vikings – The Vikings play Green Bay and Chicago twice down the home stretch. So, they have that controlling their own destiny thing in play. Sweeping the Packers and Bears seems unlikely given their struggle to win on the road this year (1-3-0). Controlling destiny is a lot harder than it looks.

The Bears and the Packers are in; the Cheeseheads as division champs, da Bears in the wild card.

NFC South…

Atlanta Falcons – The Falcons don’t get much respect, despite their 9-1-0 record. The ATL has been winning without dominating. 7 of their 9 wins have been of the one score variety. “Meh!” the pigskin cognoscenti say, “Great teams dominate!”  Atlanta plays Tampa Bay twice and has the rematch with the Saints in the Georgia Dome. The NFC South is Atlanta’s to lose and they just might.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – The Bucs have won four in a row, including a game last Sunday at Carolina they probably should’ve lost. Tampa Bay is 3 games back heading into their showdown with the Falcons this Sunday. They probably need to run the table but have roadies at Denver, at New Orleans and at Atlanta. I’m impressed by the Bucs surprise 6-4-0 record and Josh Freeman’s long ball but not that impressed.

New Orleans Saints – They have been furiously digging themselves out of the 0-4-0 hole they dug to start the season. Now 5-5-0, with Drew Brees crushing it (his 28 TD passes lead the league), the Saints seem perfectly happy to outscore their opponents. Still, you know what wins championships, right? New Orleans will be tested next week by San Francisco and they have a December road trip to New Jersey Week 14 to play a Giants team likely to be fighting for their own playoff lives.  

If Bill Parcells is right (you know he is), you are what your record says you are. The Falcons take the division; the Buccaneers have the better defense so I’ll give them the edge for a wild card spot.

NFC West…

San Francisco 49ers – A championship caliber defense, a quarterback completing 70% of his passes, they’re first in the league with 170.2 yards per game rushing. How have these guys lost two games? Not to mention the tie with the St. Louis Rams a week ago. Four of the last six on the road including New Orleans, New England and Seattle combined with San Fran’s inexplicable ability to be horrible is a concern but they should take home the NFC West and possibly a bye.

Seattle Seahawks – They’re horrible on the road so getting the wild card would pretty much mean one and done. And because they are horrible on the road I can’t see them catching the Niners. Seattle needs to win just one more on the road (Miami this week?) and sweep the home slate to have a chance.

The 49ers are the best team in the NFC; they just need to play like it. I like the Bucs and Saints better than the Seahawks for that second wild card spot.

AFC East…

New England Patriots – Despite the loss of Gronkowski, the AFC East still runs through Foxborough. Brady is the only reason I need.

The Jets, Bills and Dolphins are all 4-6-0 and one loss away from elimination. The Patriots will need to win the AFC Championship on the road this year, if they’re going to make it to the Super Bowl.

AFC North…

Baltimore Ravens – The Ravens would like to get home field throughout the playoffs as they (i.e., Joe Flacco) play lights out in Baltimore but on the road (i.e., Joe Flacco), not so much. They’ve got Ray Rice but the defense has not played up to their reputation in 2012.

Pittsburgh Steelers – Reports on Ben Roethlisberger’s dislocated rib are not optimistic and backup Lord Byron of Leftwich ribs were broken in his first start subbing for Big Ben so 37-year old Charlie Batch will start the Steelers next game under center. Does it matter? The running game and their league-leading defense should carry Pittsburgh down the stretch.

Cincinnati Bengals – Can the Bengals capitalize on the Steelers misfortune? A favorable schedule down the stretch to a Week 16 showdown with the Steelers puts them in position to take a wild card playoff berth. They may also need to beat the Ravens Week 17. If that's the case, they'd better hope the Ravens don't have a reason to play their starters in the season finale.

The Ravens win the division and secure a first round bye. Given the mess in the AFC East and West, there’s an outside chance that both wild card teams could come out of the AFC North.

AFC South…

Houston Texans – I think that Jaguars game was just a bad day at the office for the Texans defense, which has been a Top 5 unit for 2012. The Texans have the #4 Defense and the #6 Offense and a three game lead with six to play. Mortal lock.

Indianapolis Colts – Despite the reality check in Foxborough, I’ve still got the Colts penciled in for ten wins and a wild card spot. Andrew Luck is that good.

Houston will have home field throughout the playoffs and the inside track to Super Bowl XLVII. Andrew Luck will add a playoff game to his curriculum vitae. 

AFC West…

Denver Broncos – Through their five-game winning streak, Peyton Manning has looked like, well, Peyton Manning. Losing McGahee hurts some but with Manning playing at an MVP level the Denver offense should be just fine. Denver also has the #6 Defense in the NFL with Von Miller making a bid for DPOY. A 4-2-0 finish in their final six seems like a worst case scenario.

As for the rest of the AFC West; thanks for playing. I don’t think Denver will catch Baltimore (or Houston). They’ll host a wild card game before hitting the road to New Orleans.

Super Bowl…

Patriots 45, 49ers 14

What were you expecting me to say?

Pigskin Prognostications

If there’s one prediction I could make with certainty about the NFL it would be this: Hearts – and bones – will be broken.