NFL Re-Boot

With a new CBA, Brett Favre’s retirement (fingers crossed) and the change in kick-off rules, I guess we could call the 2011 season a re-boot.  Not to mention the comeback for They Still Call It Football.  Much like Daunte Culpepper, I'm not sure anybody was waiting four our comeback, but we're back.  And so is football!  Yes, it's only pre-season, but pre-season is the season of hope.  Reason?  Not so much.  Hey, let’s face it.  Who wouldn’t want to live in a world where someone has clicked their heels together and believes there’s no QB like Tavaris Jackson?   Seattle Seahawks fans!  Ba-da-boom!   (Too soon?)  When your starting quarterback goes 3-5 for 33 yard (and NO INTERCEPTIONS!) in a pre-season game and you’re on Expedia the next day booking your Super Bowl trip, you probably should remind yourself that your house is still under water.  If you aren’t rooting for the Eagles, Packers, Saints, Falcons, Patriots, Jets, Steelers, Ravens, Colts or Chargers, relax.  Take that money and buy yourself a 65” 3D TV, instead.  Do it for the kids.

Come to think of it, every year is a re-boot in the NFL; we should expect nothing less of 2011.

Developing Storylines

I think the NFL will do better without Brett Favre than “Two and a Half Men” will do without Charlie Sheen, but we are going to miss him.  Charlie Sheen, I mean.   Luckily, the NFL is left with more than Ashton Kutcher, Jon Cryer and a former child star aging ungracefully into a young adult who looks like the answer to the question, “What happened to all the neighborhood cats?” 

The new kick-off rules will have an impact and there will be more touchbacks but I do expect special teams coaches to eventually figure out that “hang time” can be applied not only to punts, but to kick-offs as well.  Instead of driving the kick deep through the end-zone, why not kick it high and drop it just inside the 5-yard line (and yes, I expect someone who is paid to kick a football to be able to do that on a consistent basis).  Good coverage should keep your opponent inside the 20-yard line with that strategy.  Expect a spike in the use of the word “parabola” in play-by-play this year.

Will they repeat?  The Packers look like a legitimate Super Bowl contender again this year.  They’re playing in a relatively weak division and only the Eagles seem to have done anything significant in terms of personnel upgrades.  Is it a compelling narrative?  Maybe it’s just me but I’m already bored with the Packers.  I’m sure Green Bay is a wonderful little metaphor for the America we’ve lost but I can’t help thinking that Wisconsin looks good because it’s standing next to Minnesota.  I’m much more interested in seeing if Ndamukong Suh actually kills someone this year.

Are the Philadelphia Eagles a “Dream Team?”  More importantly, will “Dream Team” ever escape this new ironic subtext?  The Eagles look to have one of the best teams on paper and while that phrase is often used in a derogatory fashion it’s actually quite a good thing when you think about it.  Who wants to have the worst team on paper?  Having said that, I’m looking for Michael Vick to regress to his career mean, suffer an injury that puts Vince Young under center 4-6 games and for Philadelphia to lose just enough of those games to force them to play and lose the NFC Championship game in Green Bay.  It’s Philadelphia we’re talking about, after all; it just writes itself.

The NFL zigs and Bill Belichick zags.  His lips may say no but the influx of 4-3 linemen in the Patriots training camp says yes.  New England could start the season rocking a 4-3 defense with Shaun Ellis, Albert Haynesworth, Vince Wilfork and Andre Carter up front.  It’s hard to improve on 14-2-0 but the Patriots are trying.  The NWE would have been a consensus pick to win the AFC East without Haynesworth and Ochocinco joining the Brotherhood of the Flying Elvis.  “Will Haynesworth return to Pro Bowl form?” is a fascinating question to be sure.  Win or lose, Haynesworth’s performance is certain to be deconstructed by local and national media.  It will be fun to watch Belichick turn every question about Big Albert in his post-game pressers into an object lesson in team defense.  (I remember a few years ago a question about a defender who had intercepted a pass and Belichick without missing a beat noting three other players who “did their job” on that play, implying the inevitability of the interception as a consequence of good team defense while hinting at a disdain for individual statistics in general.  Classic.)  Haynesworth is a literal game-changer, but what about Carter and Mark Anderson, two players with double-digit sack seasons on their curriculum vitae?  With the Patriots d-line bringing consistent pressure and opposing quarterbacks unable to step into their throws, look for Brandon Meriweather to deliver twice as many borderline hits to opposing receivers in 2011.

One more Patriots note:  You know who might be the best rookie QB from the 2011 draft?  That’s right; Ryan Mallett.  The Dolphins could’ve had him.  The Seahawks could’ve had him.  I should stop right here and say that any NFL Team – any QB-needy NFL Team – could’ve had him because enumerating the list of QB-needy teams would quickly become tedious and make me, a Pats fan, look like I’m gloating (because I am).  I guess it’s just me but I have yet to understand why Cam Newton’s issues were written off as youthful hijinks while Mallett was saddled with Ryan Leaf comparisons because he partied in college.  I’m not saying Newton won’t be a good, perhaps even a great NFL quarterback, but Mallett already had all the thing you can’t coach – he’s 6’ 7” and 250+ pounds and has a laser-sighted cannon for an arm, completing nearly 65% of his passes in college, averaging over 9 yards per attempt with a 62:19 TD to Interceptions ratio.  All he needed to do was grow up and 31 NFL teams didn’t think they had the coaching wherewithal to make that happen.

Perhaps I’m getting way ahead of myself here but it seems to me the Andrew Luck sweepstakes is already in full swing.  Viewed through the Andrew Luck prism, Seattle’s trade for Tavaris Jackson looks perversely brilliant.  Did the Dolphins trump that move by backing off the trade for Kyle Orton, opting instead to stick with Chad Henne?  (I have to digress here and ask why the Miami Dolphins were trading for a boring, Midwestern journeyman QB to take the place of a boring, Midwestern journeyman QB when they could have gone after Tim Tebow.  I realize Miami is a long way from Gainesville but they’re even farther away from a little town I like to call Relevance.  Tebow would’ve made the Dolphins the most exciting 2-14-0 team in the NFL.  Wouldn’t you watch Miami run the Wildcat with Tebow?  You know you would.)  I think Jim Harbaugh will – just by staring in silent, molten anger at his players, his coaches, the refs and all of us watching on TV – lead the 49ers to more wins than the Seahawks or Dolphins.  On the other hand we should never bet against Alex Smith’s ability to underwhelm so I’m leaving the Niners on this list.  My dark horse here is Washington and that was before Rex Grossman floated the idea the FedEx footballers would win the NFC East.  The Pigskin Gods tweeted something about Rex’s penis and hashtagged it ROTFLMFAO.

Are the Dallas Cowboys America’s Team or are they America’s Crazy Ex-Girlfriend?  Since I’d like them to just go away and never bother me again I’m going to have to go with Crazy Ex.  It was nice knowing you, Jason Garrett.  Seemed like a nice enough guy, didn’t he?

Maybe Dallas winds up with Andrew Luck. 

I fully expect Peyton Manning to post career-average numbers this year, but if you’re a Colts’ fan, you’ve probably spent as much time on WebMD as you have on the Colts’ team site over the last month.  I don’t think there are many professions where neck surgery isn’t a big deal.  I’m also thinking that there aren’t many professions where it could be worse.  Bull riding? 

Porn star?

I Want to Be Surprised

Every season brings surprises and by definition, we shouldn’t be able to predict surprises or else they wouldn’t be surprises, but whatever…

It will surprise me if the Chargers actually play up to their talent level and win the NFC West and a playoff game.

It will surprise me if the Browns edge the Ravens for second place in the AFC North and take a wild-card berth.  The Ravens are still good but when you do get old in the NFL, it seems like all the wheels come off the wagon at once.

It will surprise me if Jay Cutler escapes the season concussion-free.  I don’t question the guy’s toughness but I do question his sanity.

It will surprise me if the Bengals win a game in 2011.  The Seahawks and 49ers play in a weak division and will likely split so 1-15-0 looks like a worst case scenario there.  The Dolphins should beat the Bills in Miami.  They also draw Denver and Washington at home.  Does Chad Henne make me nervous?  Yes, certainly.  I just don’t see a W on the schedule for Cincy and 0-6-0 in division is a mortal lock.