The Precious

Maybe it's just that we saw "Five Armies" and then followed that up with a "Lord of the Rings" marathon but with all of the weeping and lamentation over the dreaded Ravens coming to town, I couldn't help but think...

Rooting Interests

It’s been said you should be careful what you wish for.

Mostly by people who have never gotten what they wished for.

Other People's Problems

Every so often I wonder, what is the deal with other NFL franchises?

It isn’t that the Patriots haven’t made mistakes (*cough* Aaron Hernandez *cough*). It isn’t that there aren’t other well-run franchises. I’m sure it’s just perception…

The Factory of Sadness

It’s hard to describe Johnny Manziel’s fall from grace as surprising but it certainly has been fascinating. I don’t remember the Chargers moving on from Ryan Leaf this fast. Cleveland GM Ray Farmer is already scouting the 2015 college quarterback class. Not that Browns fans should get too excited by this prospect. After all, it was Farmer who traded up to get Manziel, despite the red flags on Johnny Football’s curriculum vitae. Farmer took Manziel ahead of Teddy Bridgewater and Derek Carr, both of whom wound up starting and showing promise for the future. Even Jimmy Garoppolo (also taken after Manziel) in limited action looked more the part of an NFL quarterback than Manziel.

Okay, easy to make that observation now. It really isn’t easy finding a franchise QB and it’s hard to criticize a franchise with Cleveland’s recent track record taking a chance on the boom even knowing there’s a good chance for bust. GM’s can fall in love with a young man’s arm strength, his athleticism, with his upside. Like a young man with a beautiful but crazy girlfriend, you start making excuses. Maybe the sex is great. She said she was sorry for keying your car. And pouring bleach in your aquarium. And selling your $1,400 mountain bike on eBay for $57.50. Yes you probably shouldn’t have spent that much on a bicycle you used maybe five times since you met her and the aquarium really was too big for your apartment and the sex is great – did I mention the sex was great? – but after a while, you realize you really like talking to that new administrative assistant to the senior partners over your lunch break at work. She dresses sensibly and a bit conservatively. She brings a bag lunch every day, she’s quietly ambitious and she works out. She seems sincerely interested in your mountain biking stories.

That girl is your franchise quarterback.

You count yourself lucky when you find her. Uh, him.

It’s Manziel himself that I don’t get even if his story is nothing new. It isn’t like he couldn’t take a look around the league and find plenty of role models. While Manziel is partying, Tom Brady is in bed. While Manziel is wondering wear his pants are, Tom Brady is in the facility, lifting weights, studying film. If you’re working at McDonald’s for the minimum wage, driving a used Hyundai you paid $800 for that doesn’t like to start when the humidity is 80% or higher, the manager still expects you to show up on time for your shift.

The Cleveland Browns are paying Johnny Manziel millions of dollars.

The very least he could do is show up on time and he can’t even manage that.

You’re going to trust this guy when the game is on the line?

Maybe Jerry Jones would be willing to give you a 6^th round pick for Manziel. Try not to sound too eager when you say, “Yes!” to a 7^th rounder. But do yourself a favor, Ray Farmer. Let the locker room know you care more about winning than your ego. Admit you made a mistake. Move on.

Two things here: First, find a General Manager who understands the difference between the college and pro game when it comes to the quarterback position. Second, you’re going to make mistakes. Recognize, admit and correct those mistakes as quickly as possible.

Employee of the Week

Quarterback isn’t the only position that will cause a GM to let his little head do the thinking. Quarterbacks need weapons; play-makers at wide receiver. When a talent like Mike Wallace hits the free market, pigskin decision-makers may find themselves reflexively reaching for their checkbooks regardless of how well (or not) the player fits with the team’s offense or their QB’s skill set, not to mention the salary cap implications that will inevitably if not immediately limit the GM’s ability to build a complete roster. Wallace was a case study in bad free agent signings and that was before he threw a tantrum in the Dolphins’ Week 17 loss to the Jets.

Full disclosure, when Wallace was a free agent, I couldn’t help imagine him working outside the numbers, catching TDs for Tom Brady. I was concerned (if not downright suspicious) that the Steelers didn’t seem to care to re-sign him and I knew Belichick would not overpay for Wallace. I rationalized that Wallace was just a younger version of Joey Galloway.

Last Sunday, Mike Wallace quit on his teammates and nearly a week later, still no news of any punishment for his actions. Perhaps Miami is trying to maintain a low profile in hopes they can trade Wallace and his onerous contract. The problem with that line of thinking is the fact the Dolphins have already proven to every other team in the NFL that signing Mike Wallace for WR1 money was a huge mistake.

With Ryan Tannehill, a QB who is better with the short to intermediate routes, Wallace is a terrible fit. With a QB who specializes in the deep ball, Wallace could still be productive. A Joe Flacco or Tony Romo would be better fits. Can you imagine Wallace lining up across the field from Dez Bryant?

Perhaps in the Dolphins’ dysfunctional locker room, Wallace’s behavior will pass largely unnoticed. Hey, it’s an emotional game and he let his feelings – his selfish, egocentric, me first feelings – get the better of him. Maybe Wallace will make a public act of contrition and seek forgiveness from his teammates. Everyone will say the right things. Big mistake. Learned from the experience. Looked to my family and my faith. Grateful for a second chance. Just want to help the team win…  

Cut him and suffer the dead money salary cap implications? If it’s just the numbers in a spreadsheet, it doesn’t look like a good move. Still, do you want this guy on your team?

The lessons here? The locker room matters. Find players who love the game, respect the game, who put the team first. The salary cap matters, too. Have a three year plan (minimum), allocate cap space by position value and let other GM’s overpay for talent. Talent evaluation matters in this context. Did the Miami Dolphins really think Mike Wallace was a WR1? Did they mistakenly believe QB Ryan Tannehill could lead the league in 20+ completions behind that offensive line? Do these guys have any idea of who they really are?

J-E-S-T, Jest! Jest! Jest!

Was Woody Johnson the new owner that caused Bill Belichick to tender his resignation napkin? Good call, Bill. The Woodman is blowing up his franchise again, having fired both GM John Idzik and HC Rex Ryan in the wake of their disappointing 4-12-0 season. Johnson, like most of us, couldn’t figure out who was more to blame – Idzik’s parsimonious cap management that resulted in a talent poor roster and an incipient QB controversy or Ryan for failing to put a credible offense on the field – so he told both of them to pack their knives and go.

When former GM Mike Tannenbaum was fired and Rex was not, there were plenty of questions as to how or if Ryan and Idzik would be able to work together. Firing a GM is generally means firing his head coach but that didn’t happen. In retrospect, I have to think Johnson thought his team was a lot better than it was and with a few tweaks the Jets would be back in the AFC Championship game again. The players loved Rex. Maybe Ryan and Idzik were an arranged marriage but that didn’t mean love wouldn’t follow. Right?

Wrong.

Does anything the Jets have done recently appear to be part of a larger, coherent plan? They give up their best defensive player, Darrelle Revis, who ultimately winds up playing for their arch rivals because they can’t come up with some creative cap math. Instead, they overpaid a WR3, Eric Decker, to line up as WR1 for QB Geno Smith, who graded out as the worst QB in the league in 2013. (Geno’s perfect game in the Week 17 win over the Dolphins notwithstanding, he wasn’t much better in 2014, and briefly lost his starting gig to Mike Vick.) It’s too soon to make such judgments so we’ll just say their 2014 draft looks like a smoldering dumpster fire. Remember Calvin Pryor talking trash about the Patriots and Tom Brady back in June? Remember anything he did during the regular season? How about Jace Amaro? There were plenty of Pats fans who had Amaro on their big board as Gronk insurance. (Thanks again, Bill.) Amaro looked like a bust in training camp but did manage to overcome his early struggles to put together a “nondescript” rookie year when all was said and done. I could go on but my doctor has told me to cut down on caffeine, red meat and schadenfreude.

Now, the Jets will start over. They will watch Rex Ryan lead the San Francisco 49ers or the Atlanta Falcons back to the playoffs next year while they try to decide whether or not to lay down some carpeting in the AFC East basement. Might as well make it a little more livable. They’re going to be there for a while.

For Jets fans, Johnson’s meandering mea culpa, replete with what could be taken as a tampering violation in his wishful thinking out loud regarding a possible return of Revis to Gang Green, had to fall far short of reassuring. If I were a season-ticket holder, I’d be visiting the Eagles pro shop to buy a XXXL Sanchez jersey that I would wear to all Jets home games next year. I’d buy XXXL because I’ll be spending the off-season eating my feelings.

I’m not sure there are any lessons to be learned from the New York Jets. Perhaps like George Costanza, you should simply do the opposite of whatever they do.

So close and yet…

Their first winning season in forever. Their first win in Gillette Stadium. A dominant defense. Tangible evidence of improvement forming a solid foundation for hope…

When the stories surfaced that Bills HC Doug Marrone had an out in his contract you almost had to see this coming. Marrone’s departure was the kick in the nuts that followed the gut punch of Kyle Orton’s retirement. Orton wasn’t very good but with Buffalo’s defense and a solid running game, he didn’t have to be. As average as Orton was, he was decidedly better than former QB of the Future EJ Manuel. Now the Bills need to find a new head coach and a new starting quarterback (I’m still thinking Jay Cutler), one who can make the Sammy Watkins pick look like it was a good idea after all.

It can’t help that there are already rumors Marrone could be offered the Jets’ job.

Or that the list of free agent quarterbacks is a who’s who of other people’s problems (e.g., Jake Locker, Christian Ponder) and career backups (Brian Hoyer as Kyle Orton 2.0?).

Building a program, developing an identity as a franchise so the mere mention of the team’s name conjures up images of a ferocious defense or a high octane offense, achieving and maintaining success takes time and an organizational commitment. Continuity at three key positions – general manager, head coach and quarterback – will make achieving that goal a whole lot easier.

Unfortunately, getting those three key positions right is exceedingly difficult.

Great Expectations

So, I’ve read the first of what I assume will be many articles making the case that anything short of a Super Bowl win will be a failure for the 2014 Patriots.

Hasn’t that been the case for the last ten years? As I recall, even the 2013 Patriots, with five starters on IR, was subject to its unfair share of criticism for only getting to the AFC Championship.

For our friends in Buffalo and Cleveland and a dozen other NFL cities, let’s acknowledge that this is one of those good problems to have. Super Bowl expectations do not weigh heavy on the shoulders of Doug Marrone or Mike Pettine. Not that they don’t have problems of their own. I’m sure they would gladly trade their problems for the “anything short of a Super Bowl” problem.

The Patriots have lost  just two starters on IR this year; Jerod Mayo and Stevan Ridley. Mayo’s loss has been offset by the Pro Bowl-level play of Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins and the trades for Akeem Ayers and Jonathan Casillas. Ridley has barely been missed thanks to the play of Jonas Gray and the pick-up of LeGarrette Blount. But I’m burying the lede here. The big difference for New England this year over last is that Rob Gronkowski is healthy.

At the risk of stating the painfully obvious, Gronk is every bit as important an offensive weapon as Dez Bryant is to the Cowboys, Demaryius Thomas is to the Broncos, Jordy Nelson is to the Packers or Calvin Johnson is to the Lions. After a slow start in September – to be expected coming off an ACL injury – and a Week 17 spent in a hyperbaric chamber at a secure, undisclosed location, Gronkowski finished 15^th in receiving yardage. He tied for 8^th in receiving 1^st downs (60 of his 82 receptions), finished 11^th in YAC, tied for 10^th in catches of 20+ yards and tied for 4^th in receiving touchdowns, with 12 scores in his 15 games.   

He is still too fast for linebackers and too big for safeties. He demands a double-team and has the athleticism to make spectacular catches in traffic. He tips the field, opening up space for Julian Edelman, Brandon LaFell and Shane Vereen. And he blocks.

Do not even talk to me about Jimmy Graham. He is not a tight end. Just stop it. The discussion regarding the best tight end in the NFL begins and ends with Rob Gronkowski. That’s it. That’s the list.

As a pro football fan and more specifically as a New England Patriots fan, I have been waiting for the chance to see a healthy Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski in the playoffs. Gronk’s name belongs on the list of most receiving TDs in a single season, playoffs.

Gronk isn’t the only reason for optimism. There’s a championship caliber defense lining up on the other side of the ball for the Patriots for the first time since 2004. They have one of the better special teams units in the NFL and perhaps the best kicker in the league should a game come down to a field goal. And they have Tom Brady.

Black Monday Musings

I have to say, it doesn’t look like it could’ve turned out much better for the Patriots. Rex Ryan has lost his job, Joe Philbin has kept his and the Bills don’t have a 1^st round pick in 2015, having traded that pick away to draft the third or fourth best wide receiver in the 2014 draft. The Jets will be rebuilding, we can pencil the Dolphins in for another 8-8-0 season and the Bills will be hoping their defense can carry Kyle Orton EJ Manuel to the Super Bowl.

EJ Manuel.

Jay Cutler, anyone?

The Road to Glendale

Bill Belichick may not want to talk about it but I do; the road to Glendale goes through Foxborough!

How We Got Here…

Thanks to the Denver Broncos apparent lack of interest in having the Seahawks kick their asses on international television second year in a row, the Patriots Week 17 matchup with the Buffalo Bills has been rendered moot. The Broncos lost not only their Monday night game against the primetime-phobic Cincinnati Bengals, they ceded the #1 seed to the Pats and other than the 3^rd quarter flurry, looked unambiguously unimpressive in the process. Peyton Manning’s four interceptions had pigskin pundits and bobbleheads revisiting Manning’s multiple neck surgeries, his 38 years on this planet and puzzling over the mental errors committed by one of the game’s most cerebral quarterbacks.

It seems to me Manning has been given a far more reverential eulogy following the Queen City Catastrophe than the dismissive notices handed Tom Brady after the Monday Night Massacre in Kansas City. As a Pats fan I get that I’m probably just a bit too sensitive to the worshipful tone of pigskin pundits and bobbleheads as they discuss Peyton Manning and his awesomely awesome awesomeness. Critiques of Brady when the Patriots were 2-2-0 were as clinical and decisive as an autopsy. Brady was done. Belichick should try to hornswoggle some rube GM into forking over a 1^st round pick for Brady’s corpse and hand the ball to Jimmy Garoppolo. Pigskin pundits and bobbleheads seem confused and nostalgic in their reactions to Manning’s descent into mediocrity over the second half of the season, a fall that reached terminal velocity with his four interceptions Monday night. Brady was done. Manning’s performance is worrisome.

It’s just one game but it was startling seeing Manning look so very much like Jay Cutler.

For weeks, the talk has been all about New England’s need to secure home field for the playoffs, to avoid a repeat of 2013 and an conference championship game in Denver. The consensus opinion seemed to be that whoever secured the #1 seed in the AFC – be it the Broncos or the Patriots – would have the inside track to Glendale and Super Bowl XLIX.

After last Monday night’s game, it’s hard to imagine a healthy New England roster (I’m looking at you, Rob Gronkowski) would’ve had any problem winning in Denver.

Yes, I’m glad we won’t need to find out.

Week 17 Decisions…

To play or not to play, that is the internet meme. Sure, this game has no implications as far as the playoffs go but it isn’t completely meaningless. Tickets have been sold. And re-gifted to the brother-in-law. This is professional football, after all. Player incentives in six and seven figures based on performance and playing time metrics hang in the balance.

More importantly, we cannot put the entire roster in bubble wrap with a “Do Not Open Till The Divisional Round” tag. Forty-six players will dress for this Sunday’s game. It’s like a rule or something.

Tom Brady will be playing because he’s Tom Brady.  Ideally – from my perspective – Brady doesn’t play at all but that doesn’t seem possible let alone likely. So, taking the impossible out of the equation, let’s say the ideal scenario has New England starting fast on offense and Brady taking a seat following the first series in the 3^rd quarter. Brady and Vince Wilfork can share Jimmy Garoppolo jokes, do their Rob Gronkowski impressions for each other, discuss long-term investment strategies.

Darrelle Revis will play. He and Brady are cut from the same cloth.

Rob Gronkowski will start because he promised he would play all 16 games this season and Belichick will make sure he gets to keep that promise. I hold my breath every time Gronkowski is smashing and dashing through opposing secondaries, nervously checking the edges of the TV screen for T.J. Ward, only allowing myself to exhale when Gronk is walking back to the huddle – or spiking the ball in the end zone. I’m hoping for a lot of Tim Wright this Sunday.

The lame and the halt are numerous; how much of this has to do with Bill Belichick’s perverse attention to detail with his injury reports is open to debate, of course. Still, the extra week of rest that could be afforded to Julian Edelman, Dan Connolly and others would not only help those players get healthy for the playoffs, it would give their backups valuable reps in game action. I don’t think the extra week of downtime is going to hurt Edelman or anyone else listed as questionable.

The Prognosis

Yes, the Steelers are on a roll, the Chargers are flat out insane and Peyton Manning is still Peyton Manning. Mostly. Whatever. If the Patriots play their best football in all three phases they can’t be beaten by any team in the AFC. They still have to do that, of course, but does anyone think it’s a long shot? It’s the opposite of a long shot. Okay, maybe it’s not the exact opposite but it’s at least 165 degrees off of a long shot.

And the Super Bowl?

A Patriots-Seahawks match up would print money. The last team to win back-to-back Lombardi’s trying to stop the team attempting that same feat. Brady and Russell Wilson. Gronk. The enigma that is Marshawn Lynch. Darrelle Revis and Richard Sherman. Wow. Would there even be room for Peter Carroll’s New England years? That could be the most analyzed, most watched, most bet Super Bowl ever.

Do I think the Patriots can beat the Seahawks on a neutral site? Yes, I do. Would I rather see the Patriots face the Packers? Well, it would be nice to see New England avenge the loss in Green Bay as a sweetener to seal the deal but winning a Super Bowl really doesn’t require a free dessert, does it?

Why do I feel like it’s going to be Dallas?

Losing to the Patriots.

The Year That Was Called 2014

2014. It won’t be over till the fat lady sings but she’s warming up in the wings…