There's an old saying in football that if you're not running a quarterback sneak on 4th and 1, you probably shouldn't be going for it on 4th and 1.
As noted, it's an old saying. So, why is a new, modern, millennial, disruptive, innovative offense like the Kansas City Chiefs running a quarterback sneak?
I know what you're thinking: Hindsight is 20/20. It's easy to criticize the Chiefs for putting the future of the franchise at risk after popping his kneecap back in place. That's true. So what?
And yes, it's a cheap, easy meal to make everything about the Patriots, but the dots are too conveniently proximate with 42-year old Tom Brady coming off a game where he scored two TDs on quarterback sneaks in the previous Thursday night game, with New England coming away with another unimpressive 35-14 win over the Giants.
What little boy quarterback doesn't want to grow up to be Tom Brady?
What NFL head coach doesn't look at Bill Belichick and the Patriots as the blueprint?
Okay, the call by Andy Reid probably had nothing to do with the Patriots, Tom Brady, or the previous Thursday night matchup between the Pats and G-Men. As noted above, if you aren't running the QB sneak on 4th and 1, maybe you shouldn't be going for it. Occam's razor. It's likely as simple as that. But...
Even if you're the Chiefs?
Even if you're putting the face of your franchise - perhaps the face of the NFL - at risk?
I get it. You can't play this game scared. Maybe the Chiefs will rally around backup QB Matt Moore but it appears likely that Patrick Mahomes will miss the next three games; at home against the Packers and Vikings, followed by a road trip to face the enigma that is the Titans. Mahomes could return to action with the Chiefs at 6-4-0. Will that really matter (other than home field)? Probably not. The Chargers have regressed to the mean with extreme prejudice. The Broncos are demonstrably terrible. Sooner or later, the Raiders are gonna Raider.
And what if he has to miss 4+ weeks?
Let's consider this quote from Josh McDaniels…
There's an inherent courage and willingness to send your body into a bunch of 300-plus-pound men and push, and not go to the ground and not lose the ball, have an awareness of where you’re at, and also find the sweet spot.Tommy does such a good job of just burrowing in there. His legs never stop moving, and he has a knack for knowing how far he needs to get.
After reading that, I didn't want McDaniels to ever call another QB sneak for Tom Brady, and Brady's actually good at it! This post - from 2015! - makes a salient point that should be taken to heart by quarterbacks who are not Tom Brady…
...over Brady's career, he's picked up first downs on third- and fourth-and-one situations 91% (92-101) of the time, including in the playoffs. This year, he's 7-8. For comparison, Peyton Manning, who is a similar style of quarterback to Brady, is 15-22 in career QB sneak attempts.
Patriots fans may beg to differ with the "similar style of quarterback" comp but check out those numbers. In roughly the same timespan (as of the Nov. 6, 2015 publication date of the article cited), Brady ran almost 5X more QB sneaks than Manning. Now, maybe this is a function of opportunities but it's still a remarkable differential. It's also worth remarking on their relative success rate (just 68% for Manning) because I'm a Patriots fan and will miss no opportunity to point out that Brady is the GOAT and Manning is not.
I guess my point here is, don't try to be Tom Brady (unless you're Tom Brady, of course).
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