The NFL Draft is like gambling on a coin flip. You've got a 50% chance of being right and a 50% chance of having people make fun of you for the rest of human history, You bet $120mm dollars on a coin flip? And you lost?
Yeah. Just call heads every time.
I've seen it work.
The Narratives Begin…
Before we get to the Patriots picks, let's breakdown a couple of storylines I know I'll be watching with smirking interest over the next 3 years. (Bet the under.)
Kyler Murray/Josh Rosen
I get why the Cardinals drafted Murray. He's got that "it" factor and certainly enough potential to be compared to Russell Wilson (he's short, too!) and Patrick Mahomes (Kliff Kingsbury coached him, too!). But I'm going withershins on this one and predict that Rosen will be the QB who has the better career.
Why? Well, he's in a much better situation with the Miami Patriots, er, Dolphins than Murray has in Arizona. Remember, there's a reason why the Cardinals had the #1 pick in the draft. They're objectively terrible. Meanwhile, Brian Flores and his ex-Pat coaching staff actually know the pro game and how to build a team. And Flores also knows how to defeat a high-powered millennial offense when the Dolphins and the Cardinals meet in Super Bowl 58.
I know what you're thinking, though. You just told me to call heads every time and then you go and call tails! What can I say? I'm a complicated guy with poor math skills.
Daniel Jones/Dwayne Haskins
The Giants' taking Jones at #6 may have been the most roundly panned pick in this year's draft. Haskins going to Washington at #15 means we get to see these picks go head-to-head in the NFC East twice a year. If Jones is as bad as pigskin pundits and bobbleheads seem to believe, this rivalry might literally be head-to-head. I'll bet the over and say these two go head-to-head at least twice.
That is if the Giants ever get around to burying Eli Manning's noticeably decomposing corpse and Jones can beat out Kyle Lauletta who had far better numbers in college but is 2" shorter than Jones. So. There's that.
Haskins has massive bust potential, too, of course. Just a one-year starter playing in a prototypically college-style offense that once upon a time gave us tragic Washington incumbent Alex Smith.
So, you're saying there's a chance?
No, I'm not.
Pats Picks
After Day 2, I was surprised to see the New England Patriots Win NFL Draft Again on Bleacher Report. "Again" was the word that surprised me. I'm used to Pats' drafts getting a C or C- after they spend a 2nd rounder on a safety nobody even mentioned in the run up to the draft. "Again"? Okay. "Win"? Yeah, I'm feeling pretty good about the cards Belichick and Caserio turned in.
1.32 - N'Keal Harry, WR
Need meets opportunity. The ceiling for Harry is Anquan Boldin or Dez Bryant depending on who you ask. I'd be good with either one of those ceilings. Gigantic by Patriots WR standards at 6' 3" and 220 pounds, with an outstanding vertical leap and great hands who wins on contested catches and makes plays in the red zone, a YAC-monster with the ball in his hands, and a willing blocker with some special teams value as a punt returner. And he aced the 30 Visit test at Patriots Place so we might be looking at a true unicorn: A physically gifted rookie wide receiver who could actually contribute to the New England offense in his rookie season.
The knocks on Harry are long speed (a 4.5-4.6 40) and struggles to create separation.
But he looks pretty fast in his highlight reels. (Okay, selective small data sample.) And while his highlights are chock-a-block with wins on 50/50 balls, I don't know how he posted back-to-back 1,000-yard receiving his soph and junior years without creating some separation. He also posted a sub-7 3-cone drill time at the combine which indicates he should be able to shake DBs in the short to intermediate routes.
Short to intermediate routes. Competes for and high points the ball. YAC. Willing blocker. 4-down skill set. When do we find out Harry was genetically engineered by Belichick in the secret laboratories in the 4th sub-basement at 1 Patriots Place?
What? You don't think Belichick has a time machine?
2.13 - Joejuan Williams, CB
Is it Joejuan or JoeJuan?
Are we surprised Belichick traded up to get the 6' 4" defensive back from Vanderbilt after rhetorically asking pigskin pundits and bobbleheads who was going to cover all these 6' 4", 6' 5" wide receivers?
No. We are not surprised.
Some are already comping Stephon Gilmore/Joejuan Williams to Darrelle Revis/Brandon Browner but my first thought was actually Ty Law/Otis Smith. I'm good either way. With J.C. Jackson and Jason McCourty, the Patriots can do what they do and play Williams to his strengths. With his size, he could match up with tight ends as well as play outside the numbers.
Would I have preferred another WR, a TE, DL, or OT here? Yeah, sure, but this could turn out to be a great pick. And yes, Bill Belichick knows more about football than I do, so, yeah. I'm good with this.
3.13 - Chase Winovich, DE
OMG, Becky! His hair is beautiful!
Yes, he has Clay Matthews level hair but more importantly, this dude can flat out play. Look, I get that highlight reels are like any job applicant's resume (an exercise in selective amnesia) but it's hard not to get excited by Matthews hair and his curriculum vitae.
And maybe you think the Rob Ninkovich comp I've been hearing is damning by faint praise. If so, check out Ninko's run from 2011-2015.
I'm looking forward to game announcers saying of Winovich "and can you believe the Pats got Winovich with a 3rd round pick?"
3.23 - Damien Harris, RB
A running back? I was not too happy with this pick until I started checking out his highlight reel and immediately began to imagine a backfield committee of Harris and Sony Michel toting the rock 30+ times a game for 150+ yards and how that would help to keep Tom Brady out of harm's way while opening up play action.
Yes, yes, yes. I was hoping for another WR, a TE, DL, or OT here. But the zig to a run-dominant offense while the NFL zags to defenses designed to stop Air Raid pass-first offenses was not complete. With the Harris/Michel combo, I think the Patriots are there.
And did I mention Bill Belichick knows more about football than I do?
3.37 - Yodny Cajuste, OT
Need meets opportunity again for the Patriots.
Yes, I'm still expecting a veteran OT (Donald Penn) to get a call from Belichick next week. Losing Trent Brown and LaAdrian Waddle, with Isaiah Wynn coming of injury and Marcus Cannon closer to the end of his career than the beginning, Belichick and Caserio had some work to do at offensive tackle.
And they did some good work with Cajuste, who has prototypical left tackle measurables, played in a college program with a pro-style offense, and projects to be a starter in the NFL.
Check that OT box.
4.16 - Hjalte Froholdt, OG
First Cajuste and now Froholdt? Is Bill Belichick assembling the All Spell Check Team?
This can't be good news for Ted Karras.
4.31 - Jarrett Stidham, QB
We knew the Patriots would take a QB at some point (because they always draft a QB) and this was that point.
If they got 2017 Jarrett Stidham, they might've found Jimmy Garoppolo 2.0. Let's hope the pigskin pundits and bobbleheads who chalk up his disappointing 2018 to a bad offensive line, lackluster wide receivers, and just the overall terrible terribleness of Auburn's offense were right.
Having said that, even in a down year, was able to put together a pretty compelling highlight reel.
Would I have rather rolled with Danny Etling as my QB3 and drafted TE Foster Moreau (taken four picks later by the Raiders) or TE Zach Gentry (one of my mock draft crushes taken 3 picks into the 5th round by the Steelers)?
Yes. Yes I would.
5.21 Byron Cowart, DL
Um, okay.
5.25 Jake Bailey, P
Hey, if you don't think punters are important, you probably thought Super Bowl 53 was a terrible game. And you'd be wrong on both counts. Do I think Bill Belichick would've made this pick if he only had seven? No; but with all the draft capital in hand, why not?
Um, there weren't any tight ends left in the draft, right? No? There were?
7.38 Ken Webster, CB
He practiced against A.J. Brown and D.K. Metcalf at Ole Miss. So there's that.
If you're thinking, Hey, don't the Pats already have Keion Crossen? You would be correct. Because if you can get 10% more Keion Crossen, you get 10% more Keion Crossen.
And… That's it?
Belichick. Would any other NFL GM run a draft after losing the greatest tight end of all time and not take at least one tight end?
He'd also be the first to remind us that the team is still a work in progress. There are undrafted free agents already signing with the Patriots to bolster their ten draft picks. Free agents. Trades.
The story begins again.
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