They've been to 3 of the last 4 Super Bowls. That's pretty good. So why do I think massive changes will be coming to the New England Patriots in 2018?
Because they always are, it seems. And because... well, you know.
We just can't quit the Patriots, can we? Josh McDaniels punks the Colts. Bill Belichick and Robert Kraft are spotted having dinner together. Gronk is going Hollywood. (Maybe.) Ron Borges takes the bait; hook, line and sinker. We are endlessly fascinated by the New England Patriots, looking for signs and signifiers, speculating, accusing, dismissing, suspecting and fearing. We're likely witnessing in real time the transition of the empire to a new ruling triumvirate of Jonathan Kraft, Nick Caserio, and Josh McDaniels, and if they can find another Jimmy Garoppolo in this year's draft, another decade of dominating the AFC. After dominating the AFC for 3-4 more years with Tom Brady, of course.
That is, of course, mere speculation. And here's some more.
About those ch-ch-ch-changes...
After Super Bowl 52 I was reminded of another great quarterback - John Elway - who carried flawed teams all the way to the big game only to be beaten as those flaws were exposed. Tom Brady just carried one of the worst defenses in Patriots history into the Super Bowl and still came within a few plays of actually winning the game.
I know, I know. Bend but don't break. Top 5 scoring defense. Except they weren't holding offensive juggernauts to 18.5 points per game. Down the stretch they gave up 3 and 16 points to the Bills. 6 points to the Jets. They also gave up 27 points and lost to the Dolphins and 24 points to the Steelers, who clearly have a fear of success.
If defense wins championships, we clearly should've seen the loss to the Eagles in SB 52 coming. If it looked a whole lot like that Week 1 loss to the Chiefs that shouldn't have been a surprise. As currently constructed, this is not a championship defense.
Aside from taking that QB of the future, I would expect every other pick to come on defense in the upcoming draft. I don't know if there's a Rodney Harrison out there but if there is, Belichick is getting him. There will be unexpected free agent signings. There will be trades. I'd like to think things will improve with Dont'a Hightower's return but given his now extensive injury history, should we be counting on Boomtower playing a full season in 2018? And should we count on one player fixing what ails the Patriots' defense?
So. Big changes coming. Big. Because Bill Belichick and the Patriots aren't playing for second place. They measure their seasons by Super Bowl wins and by that bar 2017 was a fail.
Fun With Small Data Samples
At least the Patriots don't have to worry about the quarterback position for another year or two or three. I took a look at Brady's last three Super Bowl performances and projected the averages over a full 16-game season…
SB 49: 37 of 50, 328 yards, 4 TD, 2 INT
SB 51: 43 of 62, 466 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT
SB 52: 28 of 48, 505 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT
Taking the averages and projecting them…
16 Games: 576 of 853, 6,928 yards, 48 TD, 16 INT
16 interceptions seems a little high, doesn't it?
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