Pigskin Prognostications

It's that time of the year when local pigskin pundits and bobbleheads make their best guess as to who will make the Final 53 for the Patriots. I'm sensing some patterns…

The 3rd Quarterback Question

Some roster projections have the Patriots carrying just two QBs - Brady and Garoppolo - with Jacoby Brissett moving on to the Jets. (Come on, you know the Jets will claim him when he hits the waiver wire.) I don't see that happening. Remember last year when Brady was kidnapped by Roger Goodell and both Jimmy G and Jacoby were hurt and people were wondering if former college QB Julian Edelman might see some snaps? Well, that desperation move is no longer available. I'm not big on planning for the worst case scenario except when it comes at the most important position in the game. Has Brissett shown the second-year leap we were all hoping for? No. No, he hasn't. We're all feeling pretty good about the Patriots not trading Garoppolo right now, aren't we? Yes. Yes, we are.

Answer: Brissett is in.

The 3rd Tight End Question

This isn't quite as clear cut, despite the importance of the TE position in the Patriots offense. James O'Shaughnessy seems to be trending in recent projections, based more on his special teams experience than his ability to contribute on offense. There are question marks now at both wide receiver and defensive end so pigskin prognosticators are looking at these "thirds" at quarterback and tight end. Others are looking at the unlikelihood players like D.J. Foster, Devin Lucien and Conor McDermott will pass through waivers and make it to the practice squad. I'm still flexing for Jacob Hollister as the 3rd tight end over O'Shaughnessy but I know how Bill Belichick loves him some special teams.

Answer: O'Shaughnessy is in. Unless Hollister blows up in the final preseason game against the Giants.

The 5th Running Back Question

If James O'Shaughnessy does stick, it could be good news for D.J. Foster. Right now, Mike Gillislee, Rex Burkhead, James White, and Dion Lewis appear to be locks at RB, with Brandon Bolden penciled in at RB5 as a core four special teams contributor. The question is: Are Bolden and O'Shaughnessy redundant or complementary pieces on special teams? (No, I don't have the answer to that question.) Anyway, lots of moving pieces, a lot of ins and outs here. Belichick could keep both O'Shaughnessy and Bolden and look forward to being able share the good times twice a year with D.J. Foster when the Pats play the Jets. (This will be a recurring theme.) Foster did play wide receiver in college and he's been returning kicks in the preseason so he does have that working for him. On the other hand, there's this.

Answer: Bolden is in.

The 5th Wide Receiver Question

With Edelman out, the Pats have Brandin Cooks, Chris Hogan, Danny Amendola, and Malcolm Mitchell locks at wide receiver. Amendola has an extensive injury history and Mitchell is managing a knee injury. Matthew Slater is usually listed with the WR position group but Slater makes his money on special teams and - oh, by the way - he's also hurting. I think it's fair to say we can't assume 16 games of good health for this group. If Foster doesn't make the roster as a RB/WR, I think you've got to keep either Devin Lucien or Austin Carr for depth. Given the need in terms of replacing Edelman in the slot and age of Amendola and Edelman, Carr seems to make the best sense. Or maybe the Patriots just run the ball more in 2017.

Answer: Carr is in.

The Who's Rushing the Passer Question

Maybe I'm underthinking this one but when I see a DE projection of Trey Flowers, Dietrich Wise, Jr., Adam Butler, and Geneo Grissom, bolstered by Kyle Van Noy, Shea McClellin, Harvey Langi and Dont'a Hightower, I'm not feeling too bad about where the Patriots stand on the edge. I'm guessing Bill Belichick feels pretty good about it, too, or he wouldn't have released Kony Ealy.

Answer: It will be game-plan specific.

Will Bill Belichick Make a Trade Before Final Cuts?

With the single cut down from 90 to 53, there's going to be something of a pig pile of bottom of the roster talent available come September 2. New England is in poor claiming position (last) though so (a) you're hoping a player talented enough to help the team will be released and (b) none of the other teams in the NFL will recognize that talent and he'll fall into the waiting arms of Bill Belichick. Okay, so that's not happening. If Belichick is concerned with depth at DE or WR or any other position group, he'll probably need to make a trade to get it. I don't see that happening, either. If there's an EDGE out there who's better than Geneo Grissom, would that team be willing to part with him (no) and how much would the Patriots be willing to give up to get him (spoiler alert: a 6th rounder isn't getting this deal done)? Belichick might be able to find a WR another team is willing to give up but will that player be significantly better than Lucien or Carr? It seems unlikely.

Answer: No, but not from lack of trying.