Waiting for the Other Shoe

It's quiet.

Too quiet.

 

Patriots fans, like myself, should know better by now. Matt Forte and Mohammed Sanu were never coming to Foxborough. Forte is too old. Sanu cost too much. Neither one was probably going to be able to help on special teams. At the risk of stating the obvious, it's easy to overpay for talent in free agency. The Giants and Jaguars made drunken sailors look frugal while throwing millions of dollars at players their former teams made no effort to keep; the Texans bet the mortgage on Brock Osweiler (who not only made a good financial decision, he's no longer the new sheriff; instead of comps to Peyton Manning, he only needs to make people forget Brian Hoyer). You can argue the Patriots are saving their pennies to extend their young core of defenders – Dont'a Hightower, Jamie Collins, Chandler Jones, Malcolm Butler – before they hit free agency a year from now but Bill Belichick works free agency this way every year. Maybe there was some thought that without a 1st round pick, New England would dig into the couch cushions for some additional coin but was there a talent available worth the additional fiduciary commitment?

Apparently not.

Free agency isn't done and there are still some options out there who, at the right price, could have an opportunity to compete for a roster spot in August. Pigskin pundits and bobbleheads seem to agree the Patriots need help at running back, wide receiver and offensive line. After a first week of free agency that seemed focused on depth and special teams, let's take a look at those positions from free agency and draft perspectives.

Running Back

Okay, I'm still fascinated by the potential of former Stanford RB Tyler Gaffney and I'd argue that he's a younger version of Matt Forte's skill set. Unfortunately, I can't argue his productivity relative to a younger Matt Forte. Hard to bet the Lombardi Trophy on a guy who's spent his entire career on IR. So, let's expect the Pats to add a running back in free agency and/or the draft.

I'd be happy with one more season of LeGarrette Blount and I think he'll take less money than Washington cast-off Alfred Morris. Morris is a few years younger than Blount but I can see the Pats getting outbid for his services.

As for the draft, it seems unlikely Derrick Henry will fall all the way to #60 and Ezekiel Elliott seems like too much of a blabbermouth for Bill Belichick's tastes.

I'm not the biggest college football fan so I rely on sites like WalterFootball.com and given that we're looking for a big back (counting on Dion Lewis coming back from injury and James White continuing to develop in the passing back role), Indiana's Jordan Howard caught my eye. 5' 11" and 230 pounds. 6.2 yards per carry. Projected to rounds 3-5. Sophomore season running mate Tevin Coleman had some success in his rookie year for the Atlanta Falcons. I think the 3rd and 4th round might be too rich for Belichick – and New England doesn't have a 5th rounder – but if Howard falls to the 6th round I wouldn't be surprised to hear his name called by the Patriots.

Prediction: LeGarrette Blount returns for the veteran minimum and Belichick drafts somebody nobody has ever heard of with a 6th round comp pick.

Wide Receiver

With Chris Hogan signed, what next?

Does Danny Amendola need to restructure his contract again in order to stay in Foxborough? It seems to me Amendola is playing at the level New England hoped for when they signed him to replace Wes Welker back in 2013 and it's in both parties interests to continue the partnership.  

Obligatory Aaron Dobson Mention: As much as I would like to count on Dobson finally getting it, I can't. On top of that, he has zero special teams value. Assuming Amendola isn't cut or traded for cap space and with Hogan on board, I expect Dobson to be showcased in preseason games and traded for a conditional 7th round pick before the season starts.

After Hogan, there's really nothing to like in free agent wide receivers. Could I talk myself into it if the Pats signed Anquan Boldin? Yeah, probably. I've always loved his game but if I'm being honest, it's 2012 Anquan Boldin that I love, not 2016 Anquan Boldin. The dude is like 60 in NFL years.

Back to WalterFootball.com, this time for wide receivers.

It's difficult to predict who might still be available when New England is on the clock at #60 and whether Belichick even wants to risk another draft pick on a wide receiver, given his less than stellar track record with wide receivers.

While the New England passing attack is more horizontal than vertical, I'm still looking for size and it would be great if Ohio State's Michael Thomas fell to the Patriots. 6' 2" and 212 pounds. Big hands, good speed and he played for Belichick BFF Urban Meyer. Do I think that's going to happen? Not so much.

New England has a better shot at Illinois wideout Geronimo Allison or UMass wide receiver Tajae Sharpe. Both are 6' 3" and about 195 pounds; Sharpe is a little faster while Allison has advantages in reach, hand size and level of competition. Then there's Cal's Kenny Lawler who stands 6' 2", weighs 205 pounds and has huge mitts. Allison, Sharpe and Lawler all project rounds 3-5 so perhaps one of them will fall to the 6th round.

Prediction: I expect the Patriots will roll with what they have. They're done with free agency at wide receiver and will spend draft picks on other positions.

Tight End

The struggle is real.

Maybe red shirt rookie A.J. Derby will leverage a year of study into productivity on the field in 2016. I love behemoth tackle-eligible Michael Williams but let's face it. We've all been looking for a non-murdering version of Aaron Hernandez for four years now.

Free agency? I guess that depends on whether or not you can talk yourself into Zach Miller or Vernon Davis. I can't.

Back to WalterFootball.com for tight end prospects.

Again, impossible to predict who falls to that #60 spot for the Pats but let's say it's Stanford's Austin Hooper. Belichick seems to like the Stanford program and Hooper has the measurables. 6' 3", about 255 pounds, decent speed, huge hands and the best 3-Cone Drill for his position at the combine. If he's on the board, it will be interesting to see if Belichick calls his name.

After Hooper (and #1 TE prospect Hunter Henry from Arkansas), it's all about who falls down the board and how much (3rd round?) the Patriots value the position. South Carolina's Jerell Adams and Florida's Jake McGee have good size and speed. Ohio State's Nick Vannett has been linked to the Pats because of the Belichick-Meyer connection but when the scouting report includes the phrase "stone hands" it tends to diminish my interest. Is UCLA's Thomas Duarte that non-murdering Aaron Hernandez we've been looking for? Well there's this: "He played better against weak competition." Nah.

Prediction: Belichick looks to another college BFF, Kirk Ferentz, and uses a 7th round pick on Iowa TE Henry Krieger-Coble and following his success with UDFA David Andrews, returns to Athens, Georgia for UDFA TE Jay Rome.

Offensive Line

Are things as bad as they looked in the AFC Championship game? Am I betting the mortgage on the return of Dante Scarnecchia? The reality probably lies somewhere in the middle, I suppose.

Let's not forget the Patriots offensive line was banged up and forced to play hurt and out of position against one of the best (if not the best) defensive lines in the NFL on their home field and still came within three points of winning that game.

Assuming a return to form from Nate Solder and incremental improvements of the second-year players under Scarnecchia's tutelage, things don't look too bad.

Still, you still need to win the line of scrimmage and nothing could help Brady more than an effective running game.

Given the relative youth of New England's offensive linemen (only Sebastian Vollmer is on the wrong side of 30), adding a veteran to provide stability and mentoring isn't a bad idea but would someone like Jahri Evans take less money to play in New England? I'll go out on a limb here and say no.

So, one more trip to WalterFootball.com to look at offensive tackles and guards.

The top prospects will be off the board by the time the Patriots pick at #60 so I'll skip to the first name I've heard mocked to New England, Germain Ifedi from Texas A&M, who has prototypical size and "nastiness." The Pats need to think about replacing Vollmer and Ifedi seems to project to the right side. At best. Maybe he's a guard. So, is he worth the #60 pick?

After that, things look pretty bleak at OT; I'm doubling down on Dante Scarnecchia's ability to coach up LaAdrian Waddle as much out of necessity as optimism.

New England spent two draft picks on guards in 2015 with pretty good results in Tre Jackson and Shaq Mason so it would seem unlikely they would use a pick on that position in 2016 but Belichick is nothing if unpredictable in spending his draft capital. If a 2-3 round talent falls to the 6th round, the Patriots will pounce, of course.

Prediction: Yeah, I got nothing here. Despite the consensus amongst pigskin cognoscenti that this is a position of need for New England, I could see them not drafting a single offensive lineman in 2016. Then again, who knew about Sebastian Vollmer before the Patriots picked him? Keep your eye out for news about private workouts with Scarnecchia.

Remember, it's only March 13th…

It's easy to forget the Patriots current roster has a very good chance to compete for a Super Bowl as it stands today. Two years removed from a Super Bowl win and having gotten to the AFC Championship in 2015, there's plenty of talent already in Foxborough. It's also important New England was able to keep Josh McDaniels and Matt Patricia for one more run at a Super Bowl ring.

In the NFL, of course, if you're not getting better, you're getting worse and nobody knows that better than Bill Belichick.

More to come. That much is certain.