The draft is done but Bill Belichick isn't. The roster never sleeps. There isn't easier money than betting that there's a player not currently on New England's 90-man roster who will be making a play for the Patriots in October or November. Belichick and Nick Caserio have ranked the Pats roster 1 through 90 and they are actively looking for someone better than their 90th best player right now.
So, what is the best case scenario for the Patriots in 2018?
One For Tom's Thumb
I won't bury the lead. For the New England Patriots, it's about winning Super Bowls. Anything other than a win in SB53, as Tom Brady put it, will suck. Okay, but how do they get there?
Isaiah Wynn is the Day 1 Starter at Left Tackle
As soon as the Wynn pick was announced I went looking for video highlights and found the championship game against Alabama and immediately felt good about the pick and the rookie's chances to not only start but excel as a left tackle in the NFL. I'm counting the days until the Tom Brady presser where Brady refers to him as "Wynny" as in "Wynny's doing a great job out there."
Isaiah Wynn is the Day 1 Starter at Left Guard
I like Joe Thuney way better than anyone else on the planet, apparently, but let's say Antonio Garcia is not only ready to play football again, but do so at a high level, at left tackle? Seems unlikely, though. Maybe I should save this one for the 2019 season.
Marcus Cannon Stays Healthy
Belichick has depth options at tackle but a return to health for their pro-bowl right tackle is the best case scenario for the Patriots offensive line.
Dont'a Hightower Starts 15 of 16 Games
And the one game he doesn't start or play in is the last game of the regular season after the Pats have clinched home field. I need me some more playoff Hightower.
Julian Edelman Comes Back As Good As Ever
Would we be happy if Edelman posted 80 receptions for 850 yards coming off the ACL injury? Yes. The answer is yes.
Duke Dawson is Better Than Peak Kyle Arrington
Damning by faint praise? Check out Arrington's 2011 season. Okay, yes, that 7 INT season was clearly a statistical aberration (my son and I dubbed him "Kyle Arrington, Unlikely Hero" in 2011). If you look at the 2011 through 2013 seasons, however, you see Arrington had 13, 11, and 12 passes defended and 66, 62, and 48 tackles. Dawson doesn't have to be that good as a rookie but what if he is?
Malcolm Who?
Unfortunately, the Malcolm Butler story is not going away. It's never going away. Pigskin pundits and bobbleheads just aren't going to let it go. So, the best case scenario is that the narrative changes from "Why didn't Butler play in Super Bowl 52?" to "Who cares?" The Patriots will probably need a best case 7-1-0 start and 2+ interceptions from Jason McCourty to make that happen.
Braxton Berrios Flashes Wes Welker 2.0 Potential
The ideal scenario would be to manage Edelman's snaps by using Berrios out of the slot. Maybe a best case scenario for Edelman isn't 80 catches; maybe it's 65 catches with Berrios picking up 35 catches and 400 yards.
Turns Out the Front Seven Didn't Need Any Help in the Draft
Trey Flowers (contract year), Adrian Clayborn, Dietrich Wise, Jr. (second year leap), and Derek Rivers (back from injury) get after the quarterback, Malcom Brown (contract year), Danny Shelton (contract year), Lawrence Guy, and Adam Butler/Vincent Valentine control the line of scrimmage, and Hightower and Kyle Van Noy plus spare parts are enough at linebacker because New England is always in the big nickel sub package. The Pats defense again finishes Top 5 in scoring defense and this time doesn't play their worst game of the season in the Super Bowl.
Christian Sam and Ryan Izzo Prove They Were Draft Steals
They were Day 3 picks but off-the-ball cover LB Sam and in-line blocker with pass-catching upside TE Izzo have both been making those biggest "steals" in the 2018 NFL Draft lists. Izzo may also be a longshot to make the Final 53 with five other TE already on the roster. Life is complicated. As for Sam, I'd be happy with a slightly less talented but far more disciplined version of Jamie Collins. Happy? So happy. So very, very happy.
Gronk Has His Best Year as a Pro
Don't know if you heard but Rob Gronkowski is feeling super pliable.
Trent Harris is This Year's UDFA to make the Roster
He's built more like a strong safety than a defensive end so... why Harris? Because all he does is sack the QB.
Sony Michel is a Bigger, Stronger Dion Lewis
It's everything I can do not to get too excited about Sony Michel's ceiling in the Patriots offense.
Tom Brady Throws Less But Enjoys It More
Not suggesting anything drastic here. Big believer in having the ball in your best player's hands as often as possible and that best player is clearly Tom Brady. Still, fewer attempts means fewer hits on TB12. A better running game also means a more effective play action passing game and Brady is already one of the best at play action. (Okay, he's one of the best at just about anything having to do with playing quarterback.) He's also one of the best at pre-snap reads and a run game that's a real threat to opposing defenses is going to open up plays downfield as safeties creep down into the box.
Bill Belichick Plays Some Fatboy Slim at Practice
We've come a long, long way together,
Through the hard times and the good,
I have to celebrate you baby,
I have to praise you like I should…
Why? I'm afraid I'm going to have to plead the 5th on that one.
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