Another New Beginning Begins

First things first. A belated shout out to our long-time friends Steve and Kathy for hosting the best Super Bowl party ever. Good food. Good conversation. And three and a half hours of Peyton Manning looking like a man who just realized there is no god. Good stuff.

 

Secondarily, I will gladly lay claim to calling Percy Harvin’s kick-off return (even if I did predict 100+ yards). I also called the Seahawks win but I thought I was going out on a limb with my 13 point win for Seattle. Yeesh! That final score is grim. 43-8.

Grim.

8 points tells a story. Nobody goes for the two-point conversion unless they have to. It’s an act of desperation. In context – setting up a tie if you can score three more touchdowns and three more two-point conversions in the last fifteen minutes of the game – it seems absurd.

Definitely not embarrassing, though.

43-8.

Grim.

So, does this impact Peyton Manning’s legacy? Well, yes. It happened. It’s a part of the digital record. It’s an important moment in his career – it is the Super Bowl, after all – so even though it’s only one game it carries extra weight in the advanced statistical analysis of Peyton Manning’s career. In other words, it’s taking a few points off his final score. Even so, Manning is still a first ballot Hall of Famer and a lifetime contender in the GOAT argument for NFL QBs. It’s an honor to be nominated, right?

Unitas, Montana, Marino, Manning, Brady. That’s a damn good list. Who wouldn’t want to be on that list?

Let’s move on. Even I can’t watch the smoldering wreckage of Peyton Manning’s legacy forever. It starts to feel like porn.

Yes, I took pictures.

It took just two days following the Super Bowl before I heard the first “Trade Tom Brady” solution to all of the New England Patriots’ problems. While I’ve acknowledged in the past the Bill Belichick is a seriously unsentimental man (It’s true!) and given the right circumstances he’d trade even Tom Brady, these are not the right circumstances. The Patriots were injured or inexperienced in 2013. They should be healthier (impossible to predict injuries) but will of course be more experienced in 2014. There’s salary cap work to be done and some inevitable roster changes ahead but the most important reason they’re making another run in 2014 is Tom Brady.

Worse, I heard it suggested that the Patriots trade Tom Brady to the Texans, where former Patriots OC Bill O’Brien is now the HC, for the #1 overall pick which New England would spend on Johnny Manziel. Presumably, Houston would also throw in a bag of balls. This would guarantee one thing, of course. A Houston Texans Super Bowl XLIX win.

Seriously, does anybody think Johnny Manziel is a sure thing?

The Future’s Uncertain

Before we get too caught up in the Seahawks blue print, remember that this time last year, the Ravens were the blue print.

Still, it’s fun to play armchair GM. Can the Patriots get better on defense and add weapons for Tom Brady? Let’s break this thing down!

Cap Space

Brandon Spikes walk. Will The League cut the Patriots some salary cap slack in the Aaron Hernandez case? I’m not counting on it but let’s hope so.

Free Agents Aren’t Free

I wouldn’t overpay for Aqib Talib, Julian Edelman or LaGarrette Blount and as a result, I could see all of them leave.

Edelman seems the most likely to leave. As noted above, Bill O’Brien is running the show in Houston; he knows Edelman and Jules would be a great safety net for whoever O’Brien winds up starting at QB for the Texans. The Patriots will not overspend to keep Edelman because it’s not what they do; what they do is rely on the roster depth they’ve built in Danny Amendola, Josh Boyce and T.J. Moe. Counting on Amendola to stay healthy is a risk but Boyce’s speed would be intriguing in the slot.

Would I like to see Edelman stay in New England? Of course. It just doesn’t seem likely.

Harder to say what will happen with Talib and Blount.

When Talib’s been out of the line up the drop off in the Patriots’ pass defense has been obvious. Perhaps these injuries and his lingering bad boy reputation will work to New England’s advantage and a multi-year, incentives-laden contract can be signed. Of course, it only takes one other team. My worst fear would be Denver; more credible rumors have him going to Washington.

As much as he liked it in New England – and he genuinely seemed to be having a great time – Blount’s 27 years old and looking at what might be his last chance for a big payday. He’ll be unlikely to maximize his earnings with the Patriots. I’d hate to see him go; I can only hope Stevan Ridley holds onto the football in 2014.

A lesser priority would be Dane Fletcher but I do hope they retain him. It will be the second year after his knee injury and he should be that much better and he’s a core special team player who has shown up when he’s gotten opportunities at linebacker. They need to upgrade at TE but I still think they’ll try to retain Michael Hoomanawanui.

As for the marketplace…

I’d take a flyer on Darren McFadden if they lose Blount. In a timeshare with Ridley and Shane Vereen the oft-injured McFadden could be productive. His best season was four years ago but McFadden is only 26 years old. Ben Tate showed he was tough enough to play with busted ribs in 2013 and had a big game against the Patriots. He’s 25 years old and hasn’t taken a lot of tread off the tires backing up Arian Foster in Houston.

Eric Decker and Anquan Boldin are nice to think about but I can’t see either of them signing with the Patriots. After that, there’s nobody available at WR I’d want to have taking snaps away from Aaron Dobson, Kenbrell Thompkins, Josh Boyce and Amendola. If you heard the Patriots had signed Jerricho Cotchery would you be excited? Solid pro, sure, but we’ve been lusting after Larry Fitzgerald. If they lose Edelman, maybe they take another run at Emmanuel Sanders or make a bid for Hakeem Nicks’ services. Do those prospects excite me? Meh.

Unless Josh McDaniels is going to entirely overhaul the offense, the Patriots should load up on tight ends in both the draft and free agency. I’m going out on a limb here and I’m going to make the assumption Jimmy Graham will be staying in New Orleans. Scott Chandler or Dennis Pitta would be a nice add.

Alex Mack is the free agent prize at center so it would seem unlikely he winds up in Foxborough. Besides, he says he wants to stay in Cleveland. Keep Ryan Wendell? Maybe. They could probably do worse. It would be nice to see some fresh, angry faces on the offensive line. There are some names available but even without Dante Scarnecchia I’d still look to the draft to bolster the O-Line.

Does Jared Allen have anything left in the tank? The Patriots need to add pass rush and they need to take some of the load off Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich. Jones started fast and faded down the stretch again in 2013. Playing 98% of the defensive snaps will do that to you. They can’t afford Greg Hardy, can they? No? Well, I thought it was worth asking.

How about Brian Orakpo? Is he outside New England’s price range? Don’t answer! If I’m asking that question I think I already know the answer.

Maybe I’m underestimating Jamie Collins’ development. I hope so.

The Big Board

I can say the consensus in Patriots Nation is that New England needs to get better at safety, DE/OLB and WR but if one of those big athletic tight ends is available, I’d have to go there. Also, gigantic defensive tackles are always good.

It would be nice to see an upgrade over Steve Gregory. Gregory has moxie but nobody is afraid of crossing the middle of the Patriots defense. I can’t see New England getting into the Jairus Byrd sweepstakes and Duron Harmon didn’t look like Rodney Harrison at any point during his rookie season so the draft might be the Pats best bet.

I was intrigued by this description of Louisville safety Calvin Pryor…

“It's hard to find safeties capable of rattling teeth and snagging interceptions. Pryor fits the bill as a menacing rover for the Cardinals.”

Check.

I admit I’m overly intrigued by guys like Kony Ealy…

“The freakishly talented Ealy is a better athlete than player at this point, but he has flashed explosive rush skills off the edge.”

Of course, “freakishly talented” usually comes with a caveat:

“Scouts are divided on whether he is truly an elite prospect, so he could see his stock fluctuate greatly in the run up to the draft.”

Probably not a good pick unless (a) the Pats do sign Jared Allen or (b) Ealy falls to the third round.

I’m more optimistic about the young receivers New England has under contract than many of my fellow citizens of Patriots Nation but if Sammy Watkins were to fall to #29 in the first round I would be hard pressed not to draft him.

“Rare playmaker capable of running every route in the book with poise and precision. Kick-return skills reflect his explosiveness with the ball in his hands.”

It seems highly unlikely Watkins will be available and even more unlikely the Patriots would trade up to get him. If I were a betting man, I might be looking for Brandon Coleman in the sixth round. He’s 6’ 5” tall and he comes from (wait for it) Rutgers. Another possibility is Allen Robinson. He’s 6’ 3” and played for Bill O’Brien at Penn State last year.

Impossible Possibilities

Let’s cut to the chase and gin up the Ryan Mallett trade machine. Chad Henne and Matt Cassel are available as free agents and either one would provide a credible veteran back up for Brady. Mallett will not fetch a first round pick but a desperate team might give up a second rounder. I’m looking at you, Cleveland and you Oakland and you Minnesota and you Tennessee. I suppose we shouldn’t limit our fantasies to draft picks but I just can’t think of a player on any of those rosters that would look better in a Patriots uniform than Mallett.

I suppose a trade could happen before or during the draft but there are four QB of the Future prospects in the 2014 draft (Manziel, Teddy Bridgewater, Blake Bortles and Derek Carr) and I don’t see anything happening until and if Mallett lights it up in the preseason.

And if he does, would you want to trade him?

Bottom Line

Will the Patriots do something sexy in the off-season? It doesn’t seem likely but do they even need to? Keep as much of the band together that you can, add a few blue collar pieces and it’s easy to see them back in the playoffs next year, isn’t it?