I'm going to post multiple mock drafts over the next few weeks as a kind of Pigskin Chaos Theory experiment, with new mocks posted every few days in the run up to the 2025 NFL Draft.
I'm drafting for the New England Patriots, using the Pro Football & Sports Network's NFL Mock Draft Simulator. It's free, easy to use with some nice features - and not too many pop up ads. I'll be focused on the Patriot's crowd-sourced needs (OT, WR, Edge, OG, CB).
Mock Drafts
Consensus amongst Patriots pigskin cognoscenti is as follows:
If Abdul Carter or Travis Hunter is available at #4, you have to take them. Generational/Planet Player.
O-line in general and LT specifically is the Patriots biggest need. Who that might be is another subject for debate.
A true, outside the numbers, stud WR1 would be nice.
And, yeah, that's about it for consensus…
Or, at least it was, as of March 17, 2025…
April 24, 2025 Draft
Before I get to my final mock, I thought it was worth asking: What have we learned?
Probably nothing but here goes…
Pigskin pundits and bobbleheads are not big fans of my “Volume Business” approach to the draft. Clearly, experience data tells us that you’re most likely to find NFL starters in the 1st round.
Most likely.
Maybe there are only 5-6 absolute, mortal locks in the 2025 draft.
Maybe.
On the other hand, as a New England Patriots fan, it’s hard for me to believe you can’t find starting caliber players in the 6th or 7th round. Having said that, I will run my final mock like an NFL GM afraid for his job, just like in the really, real world. I will not trade out of the Top 10, so help me Pigskin Jesus.
Over the course of the past month, I’ve found myself falling in and out of love with various prospects. Phrases like, “misses too many tackles” or “obscenely high number of penalties” or “fails to consistently create separation” tend to be deal breakers for me. On the other hand, I may be just a little too fascinated by a prospect’s Relative Athletic Score” (RAS). On field productivity was definitely a factor in my selections; I just probably shouldn’t be judging football players by tests they take in t-shirts and shorts, even if those tests represent the rudiments of the game. I've been a fan long enough to know there's a difference between timed speed and game speed.
Finally, Patriots draft sins of the past have had some influence on my approach and my mock selections. The top of mind example is Armond Membou. Some local pigskin pundits and bobbleheads have been mocking Membou to the Pats at #4.
I can’t go there.
I bought into Caeden Wallace - a fairly athletic right tackle from Penn State - making the move to the left side (checks notes) but that didn’t happen.
Membou played right tackle at Missouri. I have to assume there's a reason for that.
Okay, yes, that’s a false equivalency with extreme prejudice (Membou > Wallace by a clear, significant margin). But I just can’t talk myself into it. I don’t care if Will Campbell has T-Rex arms, he played left tackle, damn it! And I’m getting me an actual left tackle with that #4 pick!
Unless I trade down.
Also, Membou's arms measured just ½" longer than Will Campbell's.
I know it's a game of inches, but, half inches?
All right. Enough foreplay. Let’s do this!
April 24, 2025 Draft
Final mock…
So, I traded down from #4 to #6 and #68 (Las Vegas) and from #6 to #10 and #41 (Chicago). Yes, Travis Hunter and Will Campbell were both available at #4.
Yeah. Scary. But…
Look what I found!
#10 - Tyler Warren, TE: I'm sure I was influenced, in part, by the return of Josh McDaniels, but more so that Warren was quite simply the scariest offensive talent I saw playing college ball in 2024. In terms of giving Drake Maye weapons, this is an H-Bomb.
#38 - Maxwell Hairston, CB: In a league once described as "quarterbacks and cornerbacks," I could not pass on a talent like Hairston. Not to mention that 4.28 forty. Can you have too many good defensive backs? No. The answer is no.
#41 - Aireontae Ersery, OT: Had to reach a bit to ensure I got the best available tackle with Josh Conerly, Jr. off the board. Ersery has the physical tools to play left tackle and the Patriots did bring him in for a "Top 30" visit. Fingers crossed!
#68 - Jack Bech, WR: Good size, decent speed, excellent 3-cone time; sounds like a Josh McDaniels kind of WR! (Danny Amendola?) You know I was hoping Jayden Higgins would still be on the board but Bech is about as clean a prospect as any on the board here.
#73 - Quinshon Judkins, RB: Not a critical need but Judkins adds size, speed and athleticism to the RB Room. Big value pick.
#77 - Kyle Kennard, Edge: I had to choose between Ashton Gillotte (one of my RAS monsters) and Kennard here and while Kennard didn't test as well as Gillotte, he was far more productive (11.5 sacks, 3 forced fumbles).
#106 - Dont'e Thornton, WR: Underperformed in terms of collegiate production, but he's 6' 5" and runs a 4.3 forty! I do regret not taking Hollin Pierce here but thought he'd be available at…
#139 - Anthony Belton, OT: Has the size and athleticism to play OT but may wind up inside when it's all said and done.
#144 - Antuan Powell-Ryland, Edge: One of my personal favorites in the draft. Fast, explosive athlete with impressive on field productivity (16 sacks, 3 forced fumbles).
#171 - Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins, DT: As the simulator noted, Ingram-Dawkins is an "upside gamble" but he is an absolute freak of nature (6' 4", 280 lbs, 34" arms, 4.86 forty) who seems like he's just starting to figure things out. Has some projected DE/Edge flexibility.
#220 - Drew Kendall, OC: Good size and athleticism. Solid prospect who probably shouldn't be on the board at this point in the draft. OC is not a critical need but Kendall looks athletic enough to play OG in a pinch.
#238 - Kurtis Roarke, QB: My tall, skinny, unathletic, but highly accurate Big 10 QB. Yes, I know he's not the next Tom Brady but he's a highly accurate thrower of the football (70% completion rate, 27:4 TD:INT ratio) and I like that in a QB.
And there it is.
If I'm right about Tyler Warren then this is a good draft, regardless of whether I hit on Ersery or, well, any of my other picks. Missing on several of my favorite prospects (Conerly, Jr. and Hollin Pierce at OT, Jayden Higgins at WR) was disappointing, to be sure but if somehow the Patriots were able to pair Drake Maye with an absolute stud like Warren tonight, I'd go to sleep a very happy Patriots fan.
Go Pats!
April 23, 2025 Drafts
Almost there…
The gridiron cognoscenti have determined the obvious. The Patriots will either "Stick and Pick" at #4, or they'll receive a "Godfather Offer" and trade down. Okay then. Let's start with the "Stick and Pick" mock…
Given the results of my eleventy million mocks, I feel pretty confident the Patriots can get top end talent at their positions of need (OT, WR), as well as positions of want (Edge, CB, OG).
I'm obviously leaning into the rebuild of the O-Line with this mock (Campbell, Belton, Kandra, Kendall), and why not? The Pats O-Line is a wicked pissah of a problem, after all. I was also able to pick up size and speed at WR (Higgins, Lambert-Smith), while showing a little love to the defense as well (Umanmielen, Parrish, Farmer).
I'd like to say the O-Line rebuild was my master plan all along, but it was really just the way the board fell out.
Feeling the FOBO? All right, then. How about this "Godfather Offer" mock?
Too much?
Maybe.
I more than doubled the Patriots picks from nine to nineteen and more than doubled the Top 100 picks from four to nine.
For OT/O-Line, I made four picks (Conerly, Jr., Jackson, Travis, Pierce). For WR/Weapons I made seven selections (Hampton, Higgins, Williams, Fannin, Jr., Ayomanor, Bond, Conyers). Two TE might seem like a luxury but they seem more like big slots/HB types and the type of match up machines Josh McDaniels likes. Couldn't pass on the best RB not named Ashton Jeanty (Hampton) and with the luxury of the additional picks I could roll the dice on a pure speed merchant (Bond). Oh, yeah, and that tall, thin, unathletic but highly accurate Big 10 QB (Brady, er, I mean, Roarke)? Yeah. Got him, too.
On defense, I selected seven prospects (Alexander, Gillote, Stutsman, Black, Simon, Ingram-Dawkins, Bassa), but probably three LB was two too many. I did pick up a "Top 30 Visits" CB (Black) but could've done more in the secondary. Happy with the talent and it appears Vrabel would like to get faster at LB, but really, kind of how the board played out.
Comp Notes Redux
As noted below…
I like to think about the draft prospects in the context of past Patriots players… But now I think the "2.0" thing was stupid, so let's just be prosaic this time, shall we?
Josh Conerly, Jr. - Matt Light. Solid technician.
Omarion Hampton - Curtis Martin. Do it all RB. Do not let him leave in free agency to sign with the Jets!
Donovan Jackson - Logan Mankins. Mean enough to play tackle.
Jayden Higgins - Poor man's Randy Moss? Homeless man's Randy Moss? Stanley Morgan?
Darius Alexander - Vince Wilfork. Disruptive force on the D-Line. But smaller. Because everyone is smaller than Vince.
Kyle Williams - David Patten. Speedy.
Harold, Fannin, Jr. - Aaron Hernandez. Minus the murdering.
Elic Ayomanor - David Patten/David Givens mash up.
Ashton Gillotte - Willie McGinest. Sacrilege? Maybe. But what if I'm right?
Jalen Travis - Sebastian Vollmer. Large, smooth mover.
Danny Stutsman - Rob Ninkovich. Smart. Reliable.
Korie Black - Kyle Arrington. The Unlikely Hero.
Cody Simon/Jeffrey Bassa - Desperately seeking Tedy Bruschi.
Isaiah Bond - Deion Branch (he said hopefully). Really, I was reaching for a Tyreek Hill comp, here.
Hollin Pierce - Trent Brown. Gigantic human.
Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins - What if Dominique Easley was bigger and had two good knees?
Kurtis Roarke - Tom Somebody.
Jalin Conyers - Dan Gronkowski. (You read that fast and thought I was crazy, didn't you?)
Let's go!
April 22, 2025 Draft
The "Ol' Razzle Dazzle" mock…
Every prospect selected above has a Relative Athletic Score (RAS - hence the "Razzle Dazzle") greater than 9.0 with the odd exception of my first pick (Banks, Jr. comes in at 8.32) and my "Matt Cassel of the Future" pick (Rourke has a "N/A" for RAS in the simulator, but his numbers - 70% completion rate, and a TD:INT ratio of 27:4 - are well worth that 7th round pick).
I think this is probably the sweet spot in terms of volume, with 17 picks. The Patriots need an infusion of talent across the roster, but there is that whole "too much of a good thing" thing. Anyway…
I got the LT along with additional O-Line help (Banks, Jr., Ratlege, Travis, Kendall). I added speed and length to the WR room (Egbuka, Higgins, Felton), plus a TE/HB (Conyers). I missed on a 3rd down RB, but as noted above, did nab a 3rd QB.
On that championship winning side of the line of scrimmage, I was able to cover all three levels; D-line (Sanders, Ingram-Dawkins, Powell-Ryland), LB (Stutsman), and secondary (Hairston, Frazier). Would've liked another Edge, but I really like the LB and DT picks.
TBH, I don't know if I'm going to be able to top this mock; I like this one a lot.
April 21, 2025 Drafts
Let's start with a "Top 100"/Max Value mock…
Okay, so I traded down for as many Top 100 picks as I could reasonably get (going from four to nine), and I made a concerted effort to draft for value (based on the simulator's rankings), with the exception of the three OTs I took (after trading down from #4 and missing on the inevitable "Stick and Pick" selection of Will Campbell, I needed to be sure I'd get the prospects I wanted).
Help on the O-Line (Conerly, Jr., Jackson, Ersery, Travis). I added weapons for Drake Maye (Harris, Royals, Fannin, Jr., Giddens). Plus that 3rd QB I like (Roarke). Plenty of help on defense, as well (Umanmielen, Gillotte, Hancock, Powell-Ryland, Simon, Ingram-Dawkins).
Comp Notes
I like to think about the draft prospects in the context of past Patriots players but am I just reaching for a rationalization?
Josh Conerly, Jr. - Matt Light 2.0: I'd take that in a heartbeat.
Donovan Jackson - Logan Mankins 2.0: Because nobody gets comp'd to John Hannah.
Princely Umanmielen - Chandler Jones 2.0: Minus the crazy.
Harold, Fannin, Jr. - Aaron Hernandez 2.0: Minus the murdering.
D.J. Giddens - Kevin Faulk 2.0: A thick 3rd down back.
Jordan Hancock - Devin McCourty 2.0: Super athletic cornerback who moves to safety.
Cody Simon - Tedy Bruschi 2.0: Undersized, do-it-all LB.
Okay, I tried, I really tried to "Stick and Pick" with this mock…
…but started taking some trades down once I got the two players I absolutely wanted (Campbell, Higgins).
I'm still in rationalization mode here but in looking at the odds of hitting on a prospect, the odds go down pretty sharply after the Top 100. So, you want more picks in the back half, given that you're hitting on fewer picks, right?
Yeah, I know that's not how statistics works, but let's just move on…
All right. So I hit on the Patriots top two needs - OT, WR - as noted above.
Safety may not be a priority, but I just can't pass up a guy who could be the next Ed Reed (Emmanwori).
Not as much additional help on the O-Line (Kandra, Christian-Lichtenhan) but am I sure Caeden Wallace is a bust? (Magic 8-Ball says to check back later.) I did also pick up additional weapons for Drake Maye (Ferguson, Smith, Prather), and a QB Buddy (Roarke) to round out the picks on offense.
And plenty of additional help on the winning championship side of the ball (Gillotte, Stutsman, Ingram-Dawkins, Batty, Martin).
All right. This time, I'm going to do it. I'm going to stick and I'm going to, well, I have to pick either way, don't I?
I doubled up at OT (Campbell, Travis), then tried to cover as many other positions as possible. A tall, fast WR1 (Higgins), a couple of freakishly athletic, disruptive DTs (Sanders, Ingram-Dawkins), a cornerback-safety (Porter), a "high motor" Edge (Diggs), an athletic, "can't have enough DBs" pick (Frazier), and a "Top 30" visits LB (Martin).
Given that I got my two "must haves" (Campbell, Higgins), as well as some of my favorite Day 2/3 picks (Porter, Travis, Diggs, Frazier, Ingram-Dawkins), I'm pretty happy with this "Stick and Pick" mock.
April 19, 2025 Drafts
Could this be my best "Stick and Pick" mock?
Having Abdul Carter fall to #4 will certainly help you make that happen.
I got LT covered (Conerly, Jr., Travis), added speed and size to the WR room (Higgins, Felton, Lambert-Smith), and picked up several of my personal favorite RAS Monsters (Porter, Frazier, Ingram-Dawkins).
Two CBs might seem like a luxury but I'm still picturing Darien Porter as Devin McCourty 2.0.
I should just stop right here but you know I just can't stop…
…without a "Volume Business" mock, mashing up some "30 Visits" with my personal Big Board.
For OT/O-Line, I made three picks (Conerly, Jr., Brown, and Pierce), but admittedly would've liked to do more there with ten picks in the Top 100 and seventeen picks overall. I selected six weapons for Drake Maye (Harris, Taylor, Williams, Ayomanor, Giddens, and Felton). I also managed to cover all three levels on defense (Schwesinger, Sanders, Farmer, Black, Powell-Ryland, Ingram-Dawkins, and Huzzie), and still pick up that 3rd QB (Rourke) the gridiron cognoscenti insist the Patriots need.
April 18, 2025 Draft Notes & Draft
NFL Teams can have up to 30 prospects for in person visits. The Patriots have had 18 meetings with prospects, listed below, along with their current [4/18] ranking on the mock draft simulator…
ED Abdul Carter (Penn State) [1]
DT Mason Graham (Michigan) [4]
OT Will Campbell (LSU) [5]
WR Tetairoa McMillan (Arizona) [10]
ED Shemar Stewart (Texas A&M) [13]
ED Mykel Williams (Georgia) [20]
ED Nic Scourton (Texas A&M) [28]
WR Jaylin Noel (Iowa State) [49]
OT Aireontae Ersery (Minnesota) [54]
ED Oluwafemi Oladejo (UCLA) [62]
DT Darius Alexander (Toledo) [66]
WR Kyle Williams (Washington State) [70]
DT Joshua Farmer (Florida State) [102]
CB Jacob Parrish (Kansas State) [119]
RB Dylan Sampson (Tennessee) [133]
RB Trevor Etienne (Georgia) [241]
LB Nick Martin (Oklahoma State) [248]
WR KeAndre Lambert-Smith (Auburn) [271]
The conventional pigskin wisdom has defined the Patriots needs as OT, WR, Edge, Guard, CB (in that order). Based on the list above, you might think maybe, just maybe, Mike Vrabel thinks the team needs more help affecting opposing QBs than they need protecting Drake Maye. Or perhaps the Pats are ready and more than happy to take Will Campbell at #4 (so why bother talking to more OTs?). While I don't really know, well, anything, let alone what the big heads at 1 Patriot Place are thinking…
Here's a "30 Visits" mock!
This was purely an academic exercise, but… Yikes!
Three DT?!?!? Yes, one of them is Mason Graham but, seriously, what the actual Hell?
I took the best available OT when I ran out of "30 Visits" prospects.
Let's try that again, with a pinch of pragmatism…
I used the "30 Visits" list, with three exceptions (Ferguson, Travis, Roarke), given gaps in matching up picks and available prospects. A trade down nets two additional Top 100 picks, while checking boxes at OT (Ersery), WR (Noel, Lambert-Smith), and Edge (Stewart), among the eight picks from the "30 Visits" list.
I wouldn't be unhappy with a Patriots draft IRL that looked like this.
April 17, 2025 Drafts
If Abdul Carter or Travis Hunter are available at #4, the power of Pigskin Jesus compels me to "Stick and Pick"...
I ticked the boxes at LT (Conerly, Jr., Travis), WR (Hunter), Edge (Swinson), and OG (Brown), but missed on a DB. I did get that 3rd down back (Smith) and 3rd QB (Rourke) that Patriots pundits and bobbleheads have been yammering about lately. And managed to grab some help on the D-Line (Sanders and my RAS monster binkie, Ingram-Dawkins) in the bargain.
Recently, I came across the acronym FOBO (Fear of a Better Option), a corollary to FOMO (Fear of Missing Out). FOBO is what I feel whenever I "Stick and Pick."
No FOBO, though, when you trade down for as many Top 100 picks as you can get!
And my first pick was a RB not named Ashton Jeanty?
Yeah. That's the kind of thing that will get a GM fired.
I don't like to trade out of the first round but I was able to increase the number of Top 100 picks from four to ten!
I was able to completely rebuild the O-Line (Conerly, Jr., Ersery, Brown, Travis, Kandra). I added speed at WR (Williams, Bech, Badger), a 3-down RB (Hampton) and a TE (Conyers). I was able to add help at all three levels of the defense; Edge/DT (Jackson, Sanders, Gillotte, Ingram-Sanders), LB (Simon), DB (Black).
It's all about the line of scrimmage, people!
NOTE: A little bit of recency bias in this mock with the Kyle Williams and Korie Black picks as those two have joined the chat in the last couple of days.
April 16, 2024 Drafts
I'm beginning to believe that "Stick and Pick" is the only way to mock…
Not that I'm making any predictive claims here.
I wanted to go OT/WR with the first two picks and I got my LT (Campbell), but my WR binkie (Jayden Higgins) was gone, so I stayed on the line of scrimmage instead (Jackson). I took best available WR at #69 (Bech) and from there, I tried to balance positions of need (Brown, Felton, Huzzie) with "BAA" picks (Stutsman, Ingram-Dawkins). And it's always good to take a QB (Roarke).
I'm not sure whether the arm length debate with Will Campbell is real or just a smoke screen but I lean to the latter given that he played in the SEC, AKA the NFL's D-League.
Okay, so "Stick and Pick" is probably closer to the really real world but trading down is so much more fun!
Still, I think it will difficult for the Patriots to trade out of the #4 spot; trading down from #38 for additional Top 100 picks? Yeah, I couldn't help myself!
I picked up three of my favorite OT prospects (Campbell, Brown, Travis), both of the Iowa State WRs (Noel, Higgins), a TE (Ferguson) and a 3rd down RB (Smith).
Why so many DTs (Sanders, Ingram-Dawkins, Hamilton)?
I really don't have a good answer for that. Other than this trade down/Top 100s mock!
I was able to go from four to nine Top 100 picks, plus the run from #104 to #106. So…
The O-Line gets six prospects (Conerly, Jr., Brown, Travis, Kandra, Pierce, Cooper). The WR room adds three speed merchants (Noel, Higgins, Felton). On the D-Line, I selected four (Jackson, Kennard, Ingram-Dawkins, Stackhouse). Two picks at CB (Hairston, Frazier) and TE (Fannin, Jr., Ferguson). I picked up a 3rd down back (Giddens) but missed on that 3rd QB.
Yes, I would take this draft IRL for the Patriots in a heartbeat, but…
Do I think there's a snowball in Hell right now? No. I do not.
April 14, 2025 Drafts
A "Conventional Wisdom" mock…
Got the LT (Campbell), a wicked fast WR (Noel), additional O-Line help (Brown), a match up monster for Josh McDaniels to work with (Gadsden II), a 3rd down back (Smith), more resources for the defense (Umanmielen, Sanders, Ingram-Dawkins), and that 3rd QB I keep hearing the Patriots need (Rourke).
Pretty happy with the Top 100 picks (as well as Logan Brown at #106). Noel is a change up (over Jayden Higgins) as I went for speed over size. Umanmielen has the measurables, production, and SEC pedigree. A DT may seem like a luxury given the Patriots current roster but T.J. Sanders was too hard to pass up.
Speaking of Top 100 picks; a "Trade Down" mock…
…with some recency bias.
Colston Loveland sounds a whole lot more like Travis Kelce than Rob Gronkowski but given how successfully Josh McDaniels has utilized multiple TE formations, it was hard to resist the Michigan TE, who was the top prospect available when the trade options dried up.
For the priority needs: OT/O-Line (Conerly, Jr., Brown, Belton, Pierce); WR (Bech, Ayomanor, Felton, Badger); Edge/D-Line (Jackson, Kennard, Ingram-Dawkins); and CB (Hancock, Huzzie). On top of all that, managed to snag a Top 5 RB (Hampton).
Loveland (for reasons noted above), and Felton (wicked fast) are recent blips on the radar of Patriots pundits and bobbleheads. Badger (KR) is worth a flier at #238.
I didn't draft a LB or a true OG but still pretty happy with this "Volume Business" mock.
April 13, 2025 Draft
My "Tom E. Curran" mock…
…or perhaps a "Wisdom of the Local Gridiron Cognoscenti" mock?
Curran has been pimping Tyler Warren as the ultimate Sundance Kid to Drake Maye's Butch Cassidy and I can't say I disagree. If it weren't for the gaping hole at LT and the lack of top end athletes in the WR room, I'd be all over Warren. With McDaniels returning as OC, who wouldn't want to have Gronk 2.0 at TE?
So, I traded down for some additional Top 100 assets with an eye on Warren, taking him at #12. I added talent on the O-Line (Conerly, Jr., Ersery, Brown, Belton) and D-Line (Gillotte, Ingram-Dawkins). I was able to add talent to the WR room, as well (Bech, Ayomanor, Thornton), plus a 3rd down back popular among local pigskin pundits and bobbleheads (Smith) and that 3rd QB they say the Pats need (Rourke).
Not much help on the back end of the defense (Ransom) so… fingers crossed!
April 12, 2025 Draft
A "Stick and Pick" mock…
I'm about as happy as I can be with this one.
I hit the Patriots two top weaknesses in the Top 100; OT (Campbell, Ersery), and WR (Higgins, Ayomanor). I followed that up with a CB/S - AKA Devin McCourty 2.0 (Hancock), an Edge (Diggs), a ridiculously athletic DT (Ingram-Dawkins), a gigantic human (Pierce), and a slot corner (Huzzie).
April 11, 2025 Draft
"Stick and Pick" for BAA…
The local pigskin pundits and bobbleheads have declared the Patriots' "Travis Hunter Dream" to be just a dream, dream, dream (IYKYK), but what do you know? He falls into my lap at #4. I'm not trading down, I'm taking Hunter and sticking and picking, looking for those priority positions (OT, WR, Edge, OG, CB)…
I got my starting LT (Ersery), an OT/OG (Brown), and my RT of the Future (Pierce can apprentice to Morgan Moses).
I see Hunter as a WR and I really see my TE pick (Fannin, Jr.) as more of a big slot and a new toy for Josh McDaniels.
I took an athletic Edge (Gillotte), and a freakishly athletic DT (Ingram-Dawkins) to affect opposing QBs, and picked up a couple of defensive backs (Frazier, Huzzie).
April 10, 2025 Draft
A maxing out the Top 100 mock…
All right. I know I'm passing on generational talent at the top of the draft (I may be mentally ill) but by trading down multiple (scary) times, I wound up with twelve picks in the Top 100. I'd expect an actual, professional NFL GM to be able to hit on at least half of those picks. Remember, this is a Patriots roster that could use a massive infusion of talent, stat!
So…
I took four OT (Conerly, Jr., Ersery, Pierce, Brown), three WR (Ayomanor, Bech, Williams), a TE (Arroyo), a 3rd down RB (Giddens) - all Top 100 picks - and a third QB (Roarke) to round out the picks on offense.
On the championship winning side of the line of scrimmage, I took four on the D-Line (Gillotte, Swinson, Ingram-Dawkins, Jenkins), a three-down LB (Stutsman), and three picks on the back end (Ransom, Hancock, Huzzie).
Mockity, mockity, mock!
April 9, 2025 Drafts
A "Stick and Pick" mock and an ultimate "Volume Business" mock…
First, the S&P 10…
Travis Hunter falls to #4 in this mock. I was still able to add reinforcements on the O-Line (Conerly, Jr., Trapilo, Travis), add a second WR (Ayomanor), with help on the D-Line (Powell-Ryland, Diggs, Ingram-Dawkins), LB (Schwesinger) and a nickel DB (Huzzie). Not too bad, but…
This is my biggest haul, so far, with twenty picks in this "Volume Business" mock…
Nine picks in the Top 100 and three more before pick 110.
Despite trading down multiple times, I was still able to get my top LT (Ersery) along with plenty of additional help on the O-Line (Trapilo, Belton, Brown, Kandra, and Travis). I was able to get a Top-10 WR (Harris), and additional "weapons" for Drake Maye (Taylor, Bech, Smith - a 3rd down RB). Did I mention how I'm hoping Stefon Diggs is healthy, and Ja'Lynn Polk and Javon Baker don't actually suck? I have? Okay. And yes, I picked up that 3rd QB pigskin pundits and bobbleheads seem to believe the Patriots need (Rourke); you know, the guy who kind of reminds me of a certain Big 10 QB who once played for the Patriots?
Although the consensus amongst the local gridiron cognoscenti is that Patriots defense had been much improved in free agency, based on the notion that side of the line of scrimmage is primarily responsible for a team's ability to win championships - not to mention how the board fell - I did my best to improve the Patriots' Super Bowl odds with help at all three levels (Grant, Gillotte, Powell-Ryland, Sawyer, Ingram-Dawkins, Jenkins; Schwesinger; Hancock, Huzzie) with the obvious focus on affecting the opponent's QB.
Six O-Line and six D-Line picks. I like the symmetry.
April 8, 2025 Drafts
A sort of "Stick and Pick" mock…
Yes, I did take one trade down for an extra Top 100 pick, knowing I'd be able to get my LF of the Future at #5 (Campbell). Then took my favorite WR in this year's draft (Higgins). In a bit of a surprise I was able to double up at OT and WR (Ersery, Ayomanor), with additional help on offense (Frazier, Conyers), and all three levels on defense (Jackson, Kiser, Hancock, Huzzie). As far as my "Stick and Pick" mocks go, I'm pretty happy with this one.
And I guess I should call these "Max 100" mocks..
This was a "build the best O-Line in the NFL" mock, with five, large, athletic humans taken (Ersery, Ratledge, Trapilo, Pierce, and Kandra) to protect Drake Maye. On the "affect" side of the equation, five more large, athletic humans (Jackson, Schwesinger, Gillotte, Sanders, Ingram-Dawkins), with some help on the defensive back end (Ransom, Hancock).
I hated missing on my favorite WR (Jaden Higgins) but managed to find another big bodied X receiver (Williams), and a 3rd down back (Smith). Total roll of the dice with pick #238 (Badger).
Should I have taken a kicker?
April 7, 2025 Drafts
The "Recency Bias" mock…
The local pigskin bobbleheads have been chattering about the need for a true 3rd down back for Josh McDaniels' offensive scheme (Brashard Smith) and another QB to make up for the trade of Joe Milton III (Kurtis Rourke is a Big 10 QB who is smart, accurate, but unathletic, and lacking in arm strength, which sounds a lot like the scouting report coming out of college for - yes, I'm going to say it - Tom Brady).
I traded down for additional Top 100 picks (+2) and still did a pretty good job at OT (Ersery, Pierce, Cooper, plus Kandra at OG) and WR (Golden, Higgins, plus Conyers, a "move" TE). I was also able to add more talent on the defensive side of the ball at all three levels (Ingram-Dawkins, Kennard, Schwesinger, Hancock - listed at CB but I'm thinking long-term he looks like Devin McCourty).
Could've done more for the defensive secondary but still not a bad haul.
The "Getting Picky With It" mock…
I was able to double up on Top 100 picks in this trade down, along with four picks in the low 100s, but I did miss on my favorite LT (Ersery). I was able to console myself with five large, athletic humans at OT (Conerly, Jr., Trapilo, Pierce, Brown, and Cooper), plus a true OG (Kandra). I'm obviously leaning into the "Stefon Diggs is ahead of schedule" and "maybe Ja'Lynn Polk and Javon Baker don't suck" tropes in picking just one WR (Ayomanor). I picked up the 3rd down back (Smith) and a move TE (Arroyo) for a little more help on offense.
Can you have too many Edge defenders? Apparently, I don't think so (Jackson, Gillotte, Powell-Ryland). And maybe I should count my LB pick in that total (Stutsman). I know you can't have too many CBs (Hairston, Hancock, Frazier, Huzzie).
I didn't pick up a third QB and also missed on a couple of my "big board" favorites (DT Ingram-Dawkins, OT Jalen Travis), but with eight selections in the Top 100 and seventeen overall, I'm pretty happy with this mock.
April 6, 2025 Draft
A "Stick and Pick" focused on needs…
The trade offers to move down and add Top 100 picks just weren't there but Travis Hunter was! I was still able to get large, athletic humans to play OT (Ersery, Trapilo, Travis), my bestie WR (Higgins), and still added talent at all three levels of the defense (Kennard, Stutsman, Frazier). Because Josh McDaniels is back at OC, threw in a TE (Conyers).
Despite the misses (OG, DT), I'm pretty happy with this mock (assuming Cole Strange could move back to guard, if needed, and assuming Christian Barmore is healthy). It addresses the Pats biggest needs with a Plan A, Plan B, and at OT with a Plan C.
April 5, 2025 Drafts
Sometimes, you need to check yourself before you wreck yourself. Even cursory self-scouting would easily spot the fact that I love to trade down for additional picks (e.g., the "Volume Business" draft approach). So, with this draft, I wanted to maximize the Top 100 picks for the Patriots. I would've traded down for more picks as long as they fell in those first 100 picks but the Jacksonville offer of 5 and 36 for 4 didn't materialize so it was your basic "BAA/Stick and Pick" mock…
Travis Hunter and Will Campbell are off the board. I decided to roll the dice on Abdul Carter. Yes, I'm nervous about the stress reduction (fracture?) but if he's healthy - and I'll assume the Patriots would have to be satisfied with the medicals - he could be a game-changer for New England.
I was able to add 9+ RAS prospects (BAA) while checking the boxes at LT, WR, Edge, and CB.
That's pretty good, right? Then again, I just can't help myself…
In this mock, I got multiple trade down opportunities for more picks in the Top 100. Yes, I traded out of the first round, something I generally have not done but I was still able to nail the needs, picking up five OT (Ersery, Conerly, Jr., Trapilo, Pierce, Travis) and an OG (Kandra), three WR (Harris, Higgins, Ayomanor), two Edge defenders (Gillotte, Kennard), and two athletic CB (Frazier, Ransaw) who could contribute immediate on special teams.
Ultimately, I only missed on Carter (which, admittedly, could turn out to be a huge miss) while picking up six additional picks in the Top 100.
April 4, 2025 Drafts
My first post-Joe Milton trade mocks!
Let's start with a "needs" draft…
Travis Hunter and Will Campbell were off the board so I traded down. I had the opportunity to draft Ohio State OT Josh Simmons but the knee injury scares me. Anyway, I was able to address New England's top three priorities; at OT (Ersery, Pierce, Brown, Travis), at WR (Royals, Higgins), and at Edge (Scourton, Kennard, Diggs).
Defensive Tackle may be a bit of a luxury if Christian Barmore is healthy, but I just couldn't pass on those two, athletic, 1-gap prospects (Sanders, Ingram-Dawkins). I feel like not getting a LB is a sneaky miss but added help in the secondary (Frazier, Hook). I didn't draft a true offensive guard but one of those tackles (Brown) could probably move inside if needed.
How about a "Mars Needs Women" (and Drake Maye Needs Weapons) mock?
In this mock, as I hope will be true for the Patriots IRL, I was offered the bag for #4 and wound up with a golden opportunity. (See what I did there? No, I'm not proud of myself.) Anyway, it set me up to add some significant speed (Golden, Ayomanor) and size to the wide receiver room (Higgins, Williams). I was also able to provide much needed help on the O-Line to keep Drake Maye upright (Conerly, Jr., Trapilo, Pierce, Kandra, Travis). I was also able to add some help on the Edge/D-Line (Gillotte, Powell-Ryland, Ingram-Dawkins).
Everything else is jimmies on the sundae; a do-it-all LB (Schwesinger) and a nickel back (Huzzie).
Let's go!
April 3, 2025 Draft
A pragmatic mock…
I'm having second thoughts about Abdul Carter's foot boo-boo, and with Travis Hunter and Will Campbell both off the board, I traded down twice but not out of the 1st round. The Scourton pick at #25 is equal parts recency bias and regret in passing on Carter. Is five OT picks too many? Hey, at least one of those guys is going to kick inside to guard and besides, having too many good offensive tackles is an experience I'd like to have. Picked up my favorite WR (Higgens) but probably should've found another wideout just in case Stefon Diggs isn't still the player all of Patriots Nation hope he'll be.
Aside from that, pretty happy with this mock.
April 2, 2025 Drafts
Using my "big board" (immediately below), I ran a "Volume Business" and a "BAA/stick & pick" mock…
Volume Business…
Taking a chance on Josh Simmons medicals but if he's 100% I definitely got a steal with Simmons and Ersery back-to-back. Checked a lot of boxes with this one.
BAA/Stick & Pick…
Am I nervous about Abdul Carter's foot injury? Yes. I'm almost certain that he will need to have his leg amputated if the Patriots draft him at #4. Still, you've got to roll the dice on a generational talent. I was able to hit on three offensive linemen and two wide receivers. No Edge and a fingers crossed pick at CB.
But if Carter doesn't need to have his leg amputated, and this was Pats draft IRL, I think it would be considered a success.
April 1, 2025 Draft Notes - My Big Board
By this point, the NFL's big brains have fallen in love with, broken up with, and gotten back together with the prospects on their big boards despite what all their friends are telling them.
Am I any different?
If you've been following along, you've noticed a few names that seem to come up on the regular. Now, that's been pretty much happenstance; it depends on the scenario and we're talking quite a few variables and the potential for utter chaos. In other words, sometimes you get Luke Kandra, and sometimes you don't. These aren't obvious 1st round picks. Or even obvious 2nd round picks…
Yes, if Travis Hunter or Abdul Carter is available at #4, you really don't need to overthink it. It's what happens after that. My Strange Attractors, along with their draft ranking, according to the simulator…
Offensive Tackle
Aireontae Ersery, Minnesota (41)
Josh Conerly, Jr., Oregon (45)
Anthony Belton, NC State (101)
Hollin Pierce, Rutgers (107
Logan Brown, Kansas (118)
Jalen Travis, Iowa State (237)
Wide Receiver & TE/HB
Jalen Royals, Utah State (57)
Jayden Higgens (64)
Elic Ayomanor (79)
Harold Fannin, Jr., Bowling Green (71)
Oronde Gadsen II, Syracuse (120)
Edge Defenders & Front Seven
Carson Schwesinger, UCLA(46)
Kyle Kennard, South Carolina (74)
Antwaun Powell-Ryland, Virginia Tech (132)
Danny Stutsman, Oklahoma (134)
Fadil Diggs, Syracuse (140)
Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins, Georgia (208)
Tyler Batty, BYU (227)
Cornerback
Cobee Bryant, Kansas (114)
Jacob Parrish, Kansas State (133)
Zah Frazier, UTSA (203)
Mello Dotson, Kansas (211)
James Marshall, Jr., Florida (252)
Offensive Guard
Garrett Dellinger, LSU (148)
Luke Kandra, Cincinnati (155)
Tight End
Mason Taylor, LSU (43)
Jalin Conyers, Texas Tech (216)
So, that's my "Big Board" for now.
March 31, 2025 Draft
Took a couple days away from the simulator after the March 28 drafts. Not sure I can top the "Volume Business" draft of 3/28. (Ha ha! 3/28! Good times!) Then again…
Obviously a "Stick and Pick" draft, with a focus on the Patriots weakest links: OT, WR, Edge.
It was hard to turn down the picks offered for #4 and yes, I passed on Travis Hunter to take Will Campbell. I don't get why Patriots Nation has talked themselves out of taking the best offensive lineman in the draft (even if he is a guard) when the Pats O-Line is ass. Anyway, three OT picks (Campbell, Pierce, Travis), three WR picks (Harris, Higgins, Lacy) and three D-Line picks that can get after the QB (Baron, Powell-Ryland, Ingram-Dawkins).
I like the symmetry.
March 28, 2025 Drafts
Okay. The chatter around the Patriots taking Travis Hunter or (a much longer shot) Abdul Carter at #4 if either one falls to New England. When the simulator dropped both of them to me it seemed like an opportunity to Stick and Pick with each of the two top non-QB options in the draft.
It went like this with Carter at #4…
…and I like this draft. Quibbles: Royals has a decent relative athletic score - RAS - and was productive in college but yes, I'm counting on Stefon Diggs returning to his pre-ACL injury form, and I didn't find a CB I liked. On the other hand, I like Ersery at LT and Belton and Vinson provide more O-lin help. Adding Carter, Schwesinger, Diggs, and Sorrell will definitely help affect opposing QBs.
It went like this with Hunter at #4…
Again, pretty happy with the results. I'd limit Hunter's snaps on defense to obvious passing downs and play him primarily as a WR. I was still able to get my LT of the Future (Ersery), and a few other large, athletic humans for the O-line (Brown, Travis, Rogers). Inevitably, once you start down the "best athlete available" road, it tends to drive subsequent picks (Porter, Noel, West, Conyers).
Now for the punchline; the "Volume Business" draft…
I traded down multiple times in the first round and still not only picked up my LT of the Future (Ersery), I was able to provide the resources for a complete overhaul of the O-line (Jackson, Belton, Brown, and Travis), and gave Drake Maye some weapons (Ayomanor, Higgings, Taylor, Gadsden). On defense, I was able to add to the D-line (Sanders, Kennard, Baron, Diggs, and Batty), the secondary (Ransom, Parrish), and an LB (Simon).
This is my "RAS Monsters" draft. Every player drafted has a relative athletic score over 8.00 with Belton the low score at 8.16. 11 of the 18 players drafted had a RAS greater than 9.00 (Ersery, Jackson, Ayomanor, Higgins, Sanders, Taylor, Brown, Baron, Diggs, Ingram-Dawkins, Travis).
I get it. Plenty of "underwear olympians" have flamed out in the NFL RAS is no guarantee of future success but I also think it would be a mistake to ignore it - or any information that might help in the evaluation process. Finally, there's this: If I have a hit rate of 40%, then I've drafted 7 contributors (starters or rotational players). If I got really lucky… Well, I'm sure you can do the math.
Yeah, I'm pretty happy with this one.
March 27, 2025 Draft
"Stick and pick" for best available athlete or take the "Volume Business" approach, knowing the hit rate past the first round is under 40%? Like so many questions in life, there is no right answer.
Anyway, thought I'd run "Stick and Pick" followed by a "Volume Business" draft.
First, "Stick and Pick"...
Although I'm predisposed to the "Volume Business" approach, I have to say I didn't hate this draft. Generation talent with the #4 pick (Carter). A true, starting-caliber LT (Ersery) with additional O-line help (Mbow, Pierce). Solid athletic profiles across the board. Probably should've gone CB at either 77 or 106, but other than that, managed to tick a lot of boxes with those nine picks.
Then, "Volume Business"...
Fifteen total picks thanks to several trades down. Addressed Patriots biggest need with seven offensive linemen (Ersery, Jackson, Conerly, Belton, Brown, Kandra, and Cooper - the odds say I could hit on three of them), added two outside the numbers WR (Higgins, Ayomanor), two "upside" edge defenders (Umanmielen, Gillotte), a superfreak DT (Ingram-Dawkins), a TE of the future (Taylor) and a toolsy safety (Hook). Could've done better at CB but managed to pick up a potential future starter at nickel with my last pick (Huzzie).
March 26, 2025 Draft
My first post-Stefon Diggs signing draft…
…and I obviously deprioritized WR - after getting Jayden Higgins, my draft WR boyfriend - and was able to hit on the O-line help the Patriots desperately need (Banks, Ersery, Trapillo, Kandra, and Cooper) while picking up athletic freaks across multiple positions (Gillote hit my radar after reports from his pro day; I've had Higgins, Ingram-Dawkins, and Luke Kandra on my radar for a while).
I know I mention the "freakish athletes" in my drafts, so I thought it might be good to drop a couple of examples of the RAS profile I look for…
Freaky-deaky.
March 25, 2025 Draft
Traded down and took the WR1 with the first pick but this was basically a "protect/affect the QB" draft…
Thanks to trading down - judiciously, of course - I made 16 picks! A few of the usual suspects at OT (Conerly, Pierce, Nelson, Travis) and Edge (Kennard, Powell-Ryland, Jones - with Landon Jackson making his first appearance in one of my mockeries). Drafting both McMillan and Higgins at WR would be a huge get in the really real draft. And I was able to take a number of excellent athletic profiles (Arroyo, Bryant, Stutsman, Monangai, Ingram-Dawkins, and Conyers) across multiple other positions.
My best mock so far?
My best mock so far.
March 24, 2025 Draft
With Carter and Hunter off the board, I traded down for more picks…
I was able to draft five large, athletic humans to fix the O-line (Banks, Ersery, Pierce, Brown, and Travis), two promising wide receivers (I especially like the 6' 4" Higgins while Bech comps to David Givens and I'd take that in a heartbeat). Added more help off the edge (Kennard), plus two freakishly athletic, hyphenated defenders (Powell-Ryland and Ingram-Dawkins), a developmental TE (Conyers) and a slot corner (Huzzie).
I'd be insanely happy with a really real draft like this for the Patriots.
March 22, 2025 Drafts
Not that I recommend it, but let's say the Patriots decided to focus on their two biggest needs; OT and WR?
Not the top tier talent at WR, though pigskin pundits and bobbleheads seem to think Bech is a safe bet; I went with size and RAS scores for Prather and Brooks, but I'll admit I've fallen in pigskin love with Savion Williams even though I fear he'd probably break my heart on Sundays. The eternal curse of upside! I don't know if I could be any happier with the OT picks. Ersery could allow Campbell to move inside to guard, with Pierce, Brown, and Cooper all very large, very athletic humans. But nobody would really do something crazy like that, would they?
As a follow up, I did a more pragmatic draft, trading down for more picks and - fingers crossed! - more talent across the board…
I tried to cover all the Pats consensus needs (OT, WR, Edge. OG, CB ). Some of the usual suspects at OT (Ersery, Pierc, Brown) with Kelvin Banks, Jr. my LT of the Future. Tre Harris gives the Pats a promising WR. Harold Fannin, Jr. is technically a TE but I simply cannot resist a Deebo Samuel comp. Kennard, Powell-Ryland, Batty and Sorrell have excellent RAS scores and could provide much needed help on the Edge. Took a couple of true OG with Frazier and Tate. I like Zah Frazier; I wasn't crazy about the other CB prospects after I'd filled in the higher priority needs.
March 20, 2025 Draft
Patriots Nation is all in on Will Campbell after Cam Robinson signed with the Texans but with Campbell off the board I traded down and wound up with a weapons first/o-line second approach with this one…
McMillan, Hampton, Fannin Jr., Beck, and Brooks give Drake Maye some weapons. I get the point of view that argues that taking McMillan at #4 would be a reach, but I just couldn't pass on him at #14 (even if they sign Stefon Diggs). Pierce, Belton, Trapillo, Kandra, Travis, and Christian-Lichtenhan provide protection for our franchise QB. And I still was able to add a couple of playmakers and a whole lot of consonants on the defensive side with Umanmielen and Schwesinger.
March 18, 2025 Draft
A Stick and Pick/Needy Baby draft…
I had to pass on a talented WR (Tre Harris) to make sure I got a decent tackle. I'm hoping Josh Conerly, Jr. is Matt Light 2.0. If that turns out to be true, and if Abdul Carter is the planet player he thinks he is, and if I hit on even one of Mbow, Kandra, Travis on the O-line and one of Strong, Ransaw at CB, that would make this a great draft, wouldn't it?
I'm going to regret not giving more love to the WR room, aren't I?
March 17, 2025 Draft
This is a "Volume Business" draft. I traded down but not out of the first round…
With the additional picks from trading down, I was able to pick 6 offensive linemen, all of whom are very large, relatively athletic human beings. While they are all listed as OT, I'm assuming Jonah Savailnaeea and possibly Anthony Belton could move inside to guard if needed. (The Garrett Bradbury signing means Cole Strange could stay at guard.) My sleeper in this group is Jalen Travis, a very large, athletic, and smart human (he started his college career at Princeton so yeah, he must be smart!). Tre Harris, Jack Bech, and Elijah Arroyo (more of a big slot than a true TE) give Drake Maye some weapons. (I like the Mack Hollins signing more than most and there are still some intriguing free agent WRs out there.) While the defense got a lot of help in free agency, I still picked up some talent on that side of the line of scrimmage. I'm particularly intrigued by Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins, a true freak of nature, and with that Georgia Bulldogs defense pedigree which just saw on display in the Super Bowl.
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