I'm going to post multiple mock drafts over the next few weeks as a kind of Pigskin Chaos Theory experiment.
I'm drafting for the New England Patriots, using the Pro Football & Sports Network's NFL Mock Draft Simulator. It's free, easy to use with some nice features - and not too many pop up ads. I'll be focused on the Patriot's crowd-sourced needs (OT, WR, Edge, OG, CB).
Mock Drafts
Consensus amongst Patriots pigskin cognoscenti is as follows:
If Abdul Carter or Travis Hunter is available at #4, you have to take them. Generational/Planet Player.
O-line in general and LT specifically is the Patriots biggest need. Who that might be is another subject for debate.
A true, outside the numbers, stud WR1 would be nice.
And, yeah, that's about it for consensus…
April 4, 2025 Drafts
My first post-Joe Milton trade mocks!
Let's start with a "needs" draft…
Travis Hunter and Will Campbell were off the board so I traded down. I had the opportunity to draft Ohio State OT Josh Simmons but the knee injury scares me. Anyway, I was able to address New England's top three priorities; at OT (Ersery, Pierce, Brown, Travis), at WR (Royals, Higgins), and at Edge (Scourton, Kennard, Diggs).
Defensive Tackle may be a bit of a luxury if Christian Barmore is healthy, but I just couldn't pass on those two, athletic, 1-gap prospects (Sanders, Ingram-Dawkins). I feel like not getting a LB is a sneaky miss but added help in the secondary (Frazier, Hook). I didn't draft a true offensive guard but one of those tackles (Brown) could probably move inside if needed.
How about a "Mars Needs Women" (and Drake Maye Needs Weapons) mock?
In this mock, as I hope will be true for the Patriots IRL, I was offered the bag for #4 and wound up with a golden opportunity. (See what I did there? No, I'm not proud of myself.) Anyway, it set me up to add some significant speed (Golden, Ayomanor) and size to the wide receiver room (Higgins, Williams). I was also able to provide much needed help on the O-Line to keep Drake Maye upright (Conerly, Jr., Trapilo, Pierce, Kandra, Travis). I was also able to add some help on the Edge/D-Line (Gillotte, Powell-Ryland, Ingram-Dawkins).
Everything else is jimmies on the sundae; a do-it-all LB (Schwesinger) and a nickel back (Huzzie).
Let's go!
April 3, 2025 Draft
A pragmatic mock…
I'm having second thoughts about Abdul Carter's foot boo-boo, and with Travis Hunter and Will Campbell both off the board, I traded down twice but not out of the 1st round. The Scourton pick at #25 is equal parts recency bias and regret in passing on Carter. Is five OT picks too many? Hey, at least one of those guys is going to kick inside to guard and besides, having too many good offensive tackles is an experience I'd like to have. Picked up my favorite WR (Higgens) but probably should've found another wideout just in case Stefon Diggs isn't still the player all of Patriots Nation hope he'll be.
Aside from that, pretty happy with this mock.
April 2, 2025 Drafts
Using my "big board" (immediately below), I ran a "volume business" and a "BAA/stick & pick" mock…
Volume Business…
Taking a chance on Josh Simmons medicals but if he's 100% I definitely got a steal with Simmons and Ersery back-to-back. Checked a lot of boxes with this one.
BAA/Stick & Pick…
Am I nervous about Abdul Carter's foot injury? Yes. I'm almost certain that he will need to have his leg amputated if the Patriots draft him at #4. Still, you've got to roll the dice on a generational talent. I was able to hit on three offensive linemen and two wide receivers. No Edge and a fingers crossed pick at CB.
But if Carter doesn't need to have his leg amputated, and this was Pats draft IRL, I think it would be considered a success.
April 1, 2025 Draft Notes - My Big Board
By this point, the NFL's big brains have fallen in love with, broken up with, and gotten back together with the prospects on their big boards despite what all their friends are telling them.
Am I any different?
If you've been following along, you've noticed a few names that seem to come up on the regular. Now, that's been pretty much happenstance; it depends on the scenario and we're talking quite a few variables and the potential for utter chaos. In other words, sometimes you get Luke Kandra, and sometimes you don't. These aren't obvious 1st round picks. Or even obvious 2nd round picks…
Yes, if Travis Hunter or Abdul Carter is available at #4, you really don't need to overthink it. It's what happens after that. My Strange Attractors, along with their draft ranking, according to the simulator…
Offensive Tackle
Aireontae Ersery, Minnesota (41)
Josh Conerly, Jr., Oregon (45)
Anthony Belton, NC State (101)
Hollin Pierce, Rutgers (107
Logan Brown, Kansas (118)
Jalen Travis, Iowa State (237)
Wide Receiver & TE/HB
Jalen Royals, Utah State (57)
Jayden Higgens (64)
Elic Ayomanor (79)
Harold Fannin, Jr., Bowling Green (71)
Oronde Gadsen II, Syracuse (120)
Edge Defenders & Front Seven
Carson Schwesinger, UCLA(46)
Kyle Kennard, South Carolina (74)
Antwaun Powell-Ryland, Virginia Tech (132)
Danny Stutsman, Oklahoma (134)
Fadil Diggs, Syracuse (140)
Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins, Georgia (208)
Tyler Batty, BYU (227)
Cornerback
Cobee Bryant, Kansas (114)
Jacob Parrish, Kansas State (133)
Zah Frazier, UTSA (203)
Mello Dotson, Kansas (211)
James Marshall, Jr., Florida (252)
Offensive Guard
Garrett Dellinger, LSU (148)
Luke Kandra, Cincinnati (155)
Tight End
Mason Taylor, LSU (43)
Jalin Conyers, Texas Tech (216)
So, that's my "Big Board" for now.
March 31, 2025 Draft
Took a couple days away from the simulator after the March 28 drafts. Not sure I can top the "volume business" draft of 3/28. (Ha ha! 3/28! Good times!) Then again…
Obviously a "stick and pick" draft, with a focus on the Patriots weakest links: OT, WR, Edge.
It was hard to turn down the picks offered for #4 and yes, I passed on Travis Hunter to take Will Campbell. I don't get why Patriots Nation has talked themselves out of taking the best offensive lineman in the draft (even if he is a guard) when the Pats O-Line is ass. Anyway, three OT picks (Campbell, Pierce, Travis), three WR picks (Harris, Higgins, Lacy) and three D-Line picks that can get after the QB (Baron, Powell-Ryland, Ingram-Dawkins).
I like the symmetry.
March 28, 2025 Drafts
Okay. The chatter around the Patriots taking Travis Hunter or (a much longer shot) Abdul Carter at #4 if either one falls to New England. When the simulator dropped both of them to me it seemed like an opportunity to stick and pick with each of the two top non-QB options in the draft.
It went like this with Carter at #4…
…and I like this draft. Quibbles: Royals has a decent relative athletic score - RAS - and was productive in college but yes, I'm counting on Stefon Diggs returning to his pre-ACL injury form, and I didn't find a CB I liked. On the other hand, I like Ersery at LT and Belton and Vinson provide more O-lin help. Adding Carter, Schwesinger, Diggs, and Sorrell will definitely help affect opposing QBs.
It went like this with Hunter at #4…
Again, pretty happy with the results. I'd limit Hunter's snaps on defense to obvious passing downs and play him primarily as a WR. I was still able to get my LT of the Future (Ersery), and a few other large, athletic humans for the O-line (Brown, Travis, Rogers). Inevitably, once you start down the "best athlete available" road, it tends to drive subsequent picks (Porter, Noel, West, Conyers).
Now for the punchline; the "volume business" draft…
I traded down multiple times in the first round and still not only picked up my LT of the Future (Ersery), I was able to provide the resources for a complete overhaul of the O-line (Jackson, Belton, Brown, and Travis), and gave Drake Maye some weapons (Ayomanor, Higgings, Taylor, Gadsden). On defense, I was able to add to the D-line (Sanders, Kennard, Baron, Diggs, and Batty), the secondary (Ransom, Parrish), and an LB (Simon).
This is my "RAS Monsters" draft. Every player drafted has a relative athletic score over 8.00 with Belton the low score at 8.16. 11 of the 18 players drafted had a RAS greater than 9.00 (Ersery, Jackson, Ayomanor, Higgins, Sanders, Taylor, Brown, Baron, Diggs, Ingram-Dawkins, Travis).
I get it. Plenty of "underwear olympians" have flamed out in the NFL RAS is no guarantee of future success but I also think it would be a mistake to ignore it - or any information that might help in the evaluation process. Finally, there's this: If I have a hit rate of 40%, then I've drafted 7 contributors (starters or rotational players). If I got really lucky… Well, I'm sure you can do the math.
Yeah, I'm pretty happy with this one.
March 27, 2025 Draft
"Stick and pick" for best available athlete or take the "volume business" approach, knowing the hit rate past the first round is under 40%? Like so many questions in life, there is no right answer.
Anyway, thought I'd run "stick and pick" followed by a "volume business" draft.
First, "stick and pick"...
Although I'm predisposed to the "volume business" approach, I have to say I didn't hate this draft. Generation talent with the #4 pick (Carter). A true, starting-caliber LT (Ersery) with additional O-line help (Mbow, Pierce). Solid athletic profiles across the board. Probably should've gone CB at either 77 or 106, but other than that, managed to tick a lot of boxes with those nine picks.
Then, "volume business"...
Fifteen total picks thanks to several trades down. Addressed Patriots biggest need with seven offensive linemen (Ersery, Jackson, Conerly, Belton, Brown, Kandra, and Cooper - the odds say I could hit on three of them), added two outside the numbers WR (Higgins, Ayomanor), two "upside" edge defenders (Umanmielen, Gillotte), a superfreak DT (Ingram-Dawkins), a TE of the future (Taylor) and a toolsy safety (Hook). Could've done better at CB but managed to pick up a potential future starter at nickel with my last pick (Huzzie).
March 26, 2025 Draft
My first post-Stefon Diggs signing draft…
…and I obviously deprioritized WR - after getting Jayden Higgins, my draft WR boyfriend - and was able to hit on the O-line help the Patriots desperately need (Banks, Ersery, Trapillo, Kandra, and Cooper) while picking up athletic freaks across multiple positions (Gillote hit my radar after reports from his pro day; I've had Higgins, Ingram-Dawkins, and Luke Kandra on my radar for a while).
I know I mention the "freakish athletes" in my drafts, so I thought it might be good to drop a couple of examples of the RAS profile I look for…
Freaky-deaky.
March 25, 2025 Draft
Traded down and took the WR1 with the first pick but this was basically a "protect/affect the QB" draft…
Thanks to trading down - judiciously, of course - I made 16 picks! A few of the usual suspects at OT (Conerly, Pierce, Nelson, Travis) and Edge (Kennard, Powell-Ryland, Jones - with Landon Jackson making his first appearance in one of my mockeries). Drafting both McMillan and Higgins at WR would be a huge get in the really real draft. And I was able to take a number of excellent athletic profiles (Arroyo, Bryant, Stutsman, Monangai, Ingram-Dawkins, and Conyers) across multiple other positions.
My best mock so far?
My best mock so far.
March 24, 2025 Draft
With Carter and Hunter off the board, I traded down for more picks…
I was able to draft five large, athletic humans to fix the O-line (Banks, Ersery, Pierce, Brown, and Travis), two promising wide receivers (I especially like the 6' 4" Higgins while Bech comps to David Givens and I'd take that in a heartbeat). Added more help off the edge (Kennard), plus two freakishly athletic, hyphenated defenders (Powell-Ryland and Ingram-Dawkins), a developmental TE (Conyers) and a slot corner (Huzzie).
I'd be insanely happy with a really real draft like this for the Patriots.
March 22, 2025 Drafts
Not that I recommend it, but let's say the Patriots decided to focus on their two biggest needs; OT and WR?
Not the top tier talent at WR, though pigskin pundits and bobbleheads seem to think Bech is a safe bet; I went with size and RAS scores for Prather and Brooks, but I'll admit I've fallen in pigskin love with Savion Williams even though I fear he'd probably break my heart on Sundays. The eternal curse of upside! I don't know if I could be any happier with the OT picks. Ersery could allow Campbell to move inside to guard, with Pierce, Brown, and Cooper all very large, very athletic humans. But nobody would really do something crazy like that, would they?
As a follow up, I did a more pragmatic draft, trading down for more picks and - fingers crossed! - more talent across the board…
I tried to cover all the Pats consensus needs (OT, WR, Edge. OG, CB ). Some of the usual suspects at OT (Ersery, Pierc, Brown) with Kelvin Banks, Jr. my LT of the Future. Tre Harris gives the Pats a promising WR. Harold Fannin, Jr. is technically a TE but I simply cannot resist a Deebo Samuel comp. Kennard, Powell-Ryland, Batty and Sorrell have excellent RAS scores and could provide much needed help on the Edge. Took a couple of true OG with Frazier and Tate. I like Zah Frazier; I wasn't crazy about the other CB prospects after I'd filled in the higher priority needs.
March 20, 2025 Draft
Patriots Nation is all in on Will Campbell after Cam Robinson signed with the Texans but with Campbell off the board I traded down and wound up with a weapons first/o-line second approach with this one…
McMillan, Hampton, Fannin Jr., Beck, and Brooks give Drake Maye some weapons. I get the point of view that argues that taking McMillan at #4 would be a reach, but I just couldn't pass on him at #14 (even if they sign Stefon Diggs). Pierce, Belton, Trapillo, Kandra, Travis, and Christian-Lichtenhan provide protection for our franchise QB. And I still was able to add a couple of playmakers and a whole lot of consonants on the defensive side with Umanmielen and Schwesinger.
March 18, 2025 Draft
A stick and pick/needy baby draft…
I had to pass on a talented WR (Tre Harris) to make sure I got a decent tackle. I'm hoping Josh Conerly, Jr. is Matt Light 2.0. If that turns out to be true, and if Abdul Carter is the planet player he thinks he is, and if I hit on even one of Mbow, Kandra, Travis on the O-line and one of Strong, Ransaw at CB, that would make this a great draft, wouldn't it?
I'm going to regret not giving more love to the WR room, aren't I?
March 17, 2025 Draft
This is a "volume business" draft. I traded down but not out of the first round…
With the additional picks from trading down, I was able to pick 6 offensive linemen, all of whom are very large, relatively athletic human beings. While they are all listed as OT, I'm assuming Jonah Savailnaeea and possibly Anthony Belton could move inside to guard if needed. (The Garrett Bradbury signing means Cole Strange could stay at guard.) My sleeper in this group is Jalen Travis, a very large, athletic, and smart human (he started his college career at Princeton so yeah, he must be smart!). Tre Harris, Jack Bech, and Elijah Arroyo (more of a big slot than a true TE) give Drake Maye some weapons. (I like the Mack Hollins signing more than most and there are still some intriguing free agent WRs out there.) While the defense got a lot of help in free agency, I still picked up some talent on that side of the line of scrimmage. I'm particularly intrigued by Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins, a true freak of nature, and with that Georgia Bulldogs defense pedigree which just saw on display in the Super Bowl.
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