Reasons To Believe

A Patriots regular season unlike most Patriots regular seasons is in the books and now that it's over it seems, well, a little more familiar than we had any reason to expect just two weeks ago. AFC East champs. First round playoff bye…

So, you're telling me there's a chance?

The Patriots were like one of those nitro-packing trucks in "Sorcerer" for most of the 2018 season, navigating narrow mountain roads of dirt and rock, risking a plunge to the valley floor below at every turn that was certain to end in a sudden and ravenous ball of liquid fire and twisted metal.

Patriots fans are nothing if not overly dramatic cineastes.

Anyway, this Patriots team has given us a few reasons to believe they could once again represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. Let me count the ways…

Tom Brady Still Tom Brady

Maybe this is a weak wide receiver group and maybe that's why we saw vintage Tom Brady on Sunday. TB12 completed more that 70% of his passes to 7 different receivers for 4 TD and 0 INT. As for that weak wide receiver group, the trio of Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan, and Phillip Dorsett accounted for 16 of Brady's 24 completions, totalling 167 yards and 2 TD.

Josh McDaniels and Brady know what they do.

The Running Backs

James White, Rex Burkhead, and Sony Michel provide the Patriots with depth and versatility; they run, they block, they catch. On Sunday, they combined for 19 carries for 94 yards. They caught 6 passes for 59 yards and 2 TD.

Mad props to FB James Develin and the offensive line of Trent Brown, Joe Thuney, David Andrews, Shaq Mason, and Marcus Cannon for making it all possible.

Stephon Gilmore

Have you heard any of the local pigskin pundits and bobbleheads say anything about Gilmore's contract lately? No. You haven't.

Because he's been worth every penny.

The Defense Peaking in January

Remember the pre-game chatter was all about Jets Franchise QB Sam Darnold and how well he'd been playing over the previous 5 games?

Yeah.

The Patriots D sacked Darnold 4 times (including a strip, scoop and score), held him to just 167 yards passing while limiting the Jets running game to 104 yards (a total inflated by a 28-yard scramble by the NYJ's rooking signal-caller). Okay, if you want to adjust based on opponent for this one, I get it, but aside from the numbers, New England is starting to look like itself on defense these last few weeks of the regular season.

Or maybe it's more that they've discovered themselves here, now, finally; just in time for the playoffs.

With Gilmore playing an elite CB1, the Pats seem to be leaning on man coverage almost exclusively. It plays not only to Gilmore's strengths, but with the young, rookie CBs on the team (J.C. Jackson, Keion Crossen, Duke Dawson), New England can keep it simple, leverage their young players athleticism and avoid communication issues that could lead to breakdowns in zone coverage. It also doesn't hurt that veteran Jason McCourty (10 passes defensed and 1 INT) has been a solid CB2 opposite Gilmore (20 passess defensed and 2 INT)..

Lock down man coverage on the back end gives Brian Flores options with the front seven and the positional flexibility of those front seven players provides New England's defense with the ability to disguise their intent and confuse opposing quarterbacks. They go two deep across the front four and the linebacking trio of Dont'a Hightower, Elandon Roberts, and Kyle Van Noy is playing well together but let's not ignore the obvious.

Trey Flowers is the inflection point for this New England Patriots defense.

Lately, Brian Flores has been using Flowers inside, often lining up on the center though he is hardly built like a typical nose tackle. (Aaron Donald much?) Regardless of where he lines up, Flowers has been a disruptive force for the Patriots' defense, leading the team with 7.5 sacks, 12 tackles for a loss, and 3 forced fumbles; he also has 2 passed defensed.

I'm so waiting for a situation where Flowers is over the center and Hightower and Roberts are threatening the double A-gap blitz.

Coaching

Belichick is the obvious advantage for the Patriots in both game planning and game management, but there's OC Josh McDaniels and DC without Portfolio Brian Flores, too, and based on the early returns from Black Monday, several of the Other 31 see potential head coaches in McDaniels (despite his runaway bride move that left the Colts at the altar just last year) and Flores (despite his lack of official status and the credit Belichick often gets for what happens on defense for the Patriots). In games likely to come down to one or two plays, to a well-disguised blitz or a blitz pick-up, to a trick play, to a tendency exploited, to a match up advantage, to clock management, a key substitution; these New England coaches can be difference-makers.

Symmetry

Look, anything can happen in a one-game elimination tournament like the NFL playoffs as Patriots fans should know better than anyone else. New England's first Super Bowl championship team was 11-5-0, too. That ragtag team of lovable underdogs somehow made its way through the playoffs (thanks to good officiating, the right leg of Adam Vinatieri, and a couple of special teams touchdowns) to start a Super Bowl as 14-point underdogs.

Can this 2018 edition of the Patriots repeat history?

Well, sure. Any given Sunday, etc. Let's not forget the Patriots have beaten the Chiefs and the Texans earlier this season, they own a condo in Andrew Luck's head, and the winner of the Chargers-Ravens game will be walking with a limp.

Then again, the oblate spheroid they play with has pointy ends. It will take a strange bounce now and then.

It couldn't hurt to be just a little bit lucky, too.